February 24, 2018
2018 NFL Draft - Top Non-Power Five Players on Offense - RB, OT
Much of the focus in this year's draft will be on the Power Five Conferences, which is to be expected considering 181 of the 253 draft picks a year ago came from the SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12, ACC and Big XII. However, there have been players making an impact as rookies who came from non-Power Five Conferences. Carson Wentz, Kareem Hunt and Cooper Kupp all fit that category. Today, we take a look at the RB, WR and OT positions.
Running Back
Rashaad Penny, 5’11”, 220lbs, San Diego State
When a program loses FBS’s all-time leading rusher, you would expect it to be difficult to find a replacement. However, when Donnel Pumphrey left SDSU for the NFL, the Aztecs’ ground game was in good hands with Penny, who actually racked up 1,000 yards as Pumphrey’s backup. As a senior in 2017, Penny proceeded to lead the nation in rushing with 2,248 yards and became just the fourth player to rush for over 200 yards in five straight games, joining Marcus Allen (1981), Barry Sanders (1988) and Jamario Thomas (2014). Penny was also named the Mountain West Conference’s Offensive and Special Teams Player of the Year and finished his Aztec career with seven kickoff returns for TD, tying an FBS record with C.J. Spiller and Tyron Carrier. Penny as a blend of power and speed that allows him to be effective between the tackles and on the outside. He’s patient between the tackles to let the hole develop, then shows the burst downhill to quickly get to the second level. What may set Penny apart is his vision to see cutback lanes. He presses the line of scrimmage and is able to put his foot in the ground and is sudden laterally to slip through the crease to get north and south in a hurry. Penny also has the lower body strength to run through contact and will drag defenders for extra yards to finish. The Aztecs didn’t throw the ball often, but Penny showed soft hands in the passing game and used his shiftiness to make plays in the open field after the catch. Maybe his biggest struggle is as a pass blocker as he seems to get lost easily, which could limit his effectiveness as a three-down back. Penny can make an instant impact in the return game and is a versatile runner to be more than just a change-of-pace back. I’d expect Penny to be one of the first five RB’s drafted. Prediction: 2nd Round
Wide Receivers
Courtland Sutton, 6’4”, 218bs, SMU
There may not be a player in more need of a good showing at the Combine than Courtland Sutton, whose draft stock is all over the map. Some are enamored by the size, wingspan and leaping ability, while others are concerned with whether he’ll be able to separate at all at the next level. Sutton’s size has drawn comparisons to Mike Evans, who was a matchup nightmare down the field at Texas A&M. Creating separation was a huge concern for him as well, but he silenced doubters with a 4.53 40 time at the Combine, which ultimately propelled him to the 7th overall pick of the Bucs in the 2014 draft. Sutton burst onto the national scene as a redshirt freshman in 2015, racking up 862 yards and tied Bronco WR Emmanuel Sanders for most TD receptions as a freshman at SMU with nine. He had a chance to enter the draft following his redshirt sophomore season after hauling in 76 passes for 1,246 yards and 10 TD. Had he entered the 2017 draft, there was a chance Sutton could have snuck into the 1st Round. However, Sutton opted to return for his junior season and ended up with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and found the end zone another 12 times. Sutton, who briefly played basketball for the Mustangs in 2015, knows how to use his body to his advantage, often boxing out the smaller CB and attacking the ball while it’s in the air. He has tremendous body control to adjust to the ball on the back shoulder fade and makes plays along the sideline by extending for the football on the outside while getting his toes down before going out. While there may not be much separation up the field, Sutton is able to create separation late as if he’s going up for a rebound, highpointing the ball in the process. His physicality is reminiscent of JuJu Smith-Schuster when he was at USC as he has the strength to shrug off defenders in the open field and can deliver a punishing stiff arm. He’s also a force as a blocker down the field, sustaining his block to spring his teammate for extra yards. His inability to create separation is a legitimate concern and his lack of polish in his route running doesn’t help. Sutton is such a long strider that when he has to throttle down, it’s difficult for him to get back up to speed. And he struggled against top competition in 2017, managing just 1 catch against both Memphis and TCU averaged less than 10 yards per catch against Central Florida. That’s why the pre-draft process will be critical for Sutton. He needs his 40 time to be in the low 4.5’s to give teams confidence he can separate vertically and must show suddenness in and out of his breaks as a route runner if he’s going to be a 1st Rounder. Prediction: 2nd Round
Michael Gallup, 6’1”, 200lbs, Colorado State
Gallup was just one year removed from Butler Community College when he emerged as one of college football’s top WR’s as a junior at Colorado State. He finished the 2016 season with a TD in 10 of the final 11 games of the season, including 3 apiece against San Diego State and Idaho to close out the season. Has a senior, Gallup was a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award after finishing 3rd in the FBS with 100 catches and fifth with 1,413 yards. He amassed 100 yards in 11 of his final 18 games with the Rams, including three 200-yard games. So why is he not being considered for the 1st Round? There’s concern over his top-end speed. He largely dominated whoever he lined up against, but will he be able to separate regularly? However, Gallup has a knack for getting open. He reminds me of Cooper Kupp in that respect. Kupp ran a 4.62 40 time at the Combine, yet nobody could cover him at the Senior Bowl because he was so sudden off the line. Gallup has that same skill. He does an excellent job reading whoever is lined up over him and will give him a stutter or a head fake and cuts off his man to win at the line of scrimmage. I think what sets Michael Gallup apart from other wide receivers is his elite ball skills. He has a knack for going up and winning 50-50 balls when elevating over defenders to highpoint the football. He tracks the ball well in the air to haul the pass in over his shoulder and has the body control to lay out and fully extend for a pass. His last catch in a CSU uniform was a highlight among his spectacular catches. The catch came against Marshall in the New Mexico Bowl, a game the Rams wound up losing 31-28. It was 3rd and 10 with 2:45 remaining and the Rams needing a big play to keep the drive alive late in the game. Gallup was on the outside and ran past the sticks and turned around. The ball was thrown high and he elevated and reached back OBJ style to haul in the pass with his right hand, extending beyond 180 degrees to make the catch and extend the drive. On one play, Gallup showed off his hands, leaping ability, body control and concentration that make him one of the best with the ball in the air. While I don’t expect Gallup to post a blazing 40 time at the Combine, he’ll absolutely be a 2nd Day pick. Prediction: 2nd-3rd Round
Anthony Miller, 5’11”, 190lbs, Memphis
Teams are always on the market for a slot WR and one of the best options in this year’s draft is Memphis’ Anthony Miller, who amassed 3,590 yards on 238 receptions with 37 TD with the Tigers. Miller, a former walk-on, had 17 games with 100+ yards, 10 double-digit catch games and 9 games with multiple TD receptions. He also played big when it counted – in an upset win over UCLA, he posted 9 receptions for 185 yards and 2 TD; and racked up 195 yards on 14 receptions with 3 TD in a heartbreaking loss to Central Florida in the AAC Championship. While Miller doesn’t have ideal size for the position and lacks top-end speed vertically, he’s very sudden with his movements and is a savvy route runner who knows how to get open. He creates separation on double moves with quick head fakes and jab steps to set up the defender, then accelerates quickly away from the defender. Miller has good body control to elevate for the football, then keep his balance to get up the field. He’s a playmaker with the ball in his hands, using a quick juke to make the first man miss and has the vision to see cutback lanes to run to daylight. Miller won’t wow anyone with speed in pre-draft workouts, but he’s a model of consistency. Prediction: 3rd-4th Round
Offensive Tackle
Chukwuma Okorafor, 6’6”, 333lbs, Western Michigan
Okorafor is an intriguing prospect at the OT position because of his length and wingspan coupled with surprisingly nimble feet. He started all 39 games in his final three seasons, first at RT as a sophomore in 2015 before moving to LT for his junior and senior seasons. It was Okorafor’s play on the left side that kept Taylor Moton, a 2nd Round pick of the Panthers in last year’s draft, to play on the right side of the line. He’s quick out of his stance as a pass protector and shows good lateral quickness to beat his man to the edge. When he plays with leverage, he can get his hands inside under the defender’s pad level and can anchor against the rush. If he can stay low, he can easily mirror DE’s and will engulf smaller defenders. However, he gets into trouble when his pad level gets too high and can be driven back into the backfield. He’s physical with his hands if he can initiate contact early, but he lacks the lateral agility to consistently handle speed rusher, often opening up his hips too quickly off his kick slide, which then forces him to lunge and grab at the defender. He has a tendency to overset at times as a result, which then leaves him susceptible to a secondary move back to the inside. His struggles with speed may mean a move back to RT could be in his future. Okorafor is at his best in the run game when he’s on the move. He will initiate contact, continue his leg drive and generate movement to open holes. He has the ability to cave in the left side of the line to allow the RB to get outside for a big gain. Okorafor can manhandle his man at the point of attack but needs to work on sustaining blocks and finishing to the whistle. While this OT draft class lacks top-10 potential, there are as many as 10 OT’s who could hear their names called in the first two days of the draft and Okorafor is right in that mix. This draft is reminiscent of the 2015 draft, where Andrus Peat, Cedric Ogbuehi and D.J. Humphries were the all 1st Rounders outside the top 10 and another six were taken in the 2nd and 3rd Rounds. I think the pre-draft process will ultimately dictate where Okorafor will go in the draft. He has versatility to play either OT position, but he’s still raw and needs to work on technique. Prediction: 2nd or 3rd Round
February 22, 2018
2018 NFL Draft - Top Non-Power Five Players on Offense - QB, TE, OG
Much of the focus in this year's draft will be on the Power Five Conferences, which is to be expected considering 181 of the 253 draft picks a year ago came from the SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12, ACC and Big XII. However, there have been players making an impact as rookies who came from non-Power Five Conferences. Carson Wentz, Kareem Hunt and Cooper Kupp all fit that category. Over the next couple of weeks, I'll be highlighting the top player at each position from Non-Power Five Schools. Today, we cover the QB TE and OG positions.
Quarterback
Josh Allen, 6’5”, 235lbs, Wyoming
Josh Allen is from the small farming town of Firebaugh, CA, with a population just over 7,500 people. He wasn’t a big name on the recruiting trail and ultimately attended Reedley College before landing a scholarship to Wyoming. Now, he’s on the biggest stage as a possible top draft pick in April’s draft. It’s easy to see why when you watch his tape from his time in Laramie. Allen has the prototypical size of an NFL QB, reminiscent of another non-Power 5 QB in Ben Roethlisberger. However, it’s his arm strength that has teams excited as he has the best arm of all the prospects in this year’s draft. The ball simply jumps out of his hand, making difficult, NFL-level throws look routine. You do not want a ball to hang up on an out-breaking route from the near hash to the wide side of the field, but Allen is able to put even the deep out on a line to his receiver. There isn’t any hesitation in his deliver and he’s looking to sling the ball all over the field. Then you pair his rocket arm with his athleticism and scouts really begin to salivate. Allen is just one of six FBS QB’s with 3,000 pass yards and 500 rush yards last season, so there’s no question he can make plays with his legs. That mobility carries over to his play in the pocket, where Allen will subtly sidestep the rush or step up to avoid the rush and make a play down the field. His strength and size allow him to shrug off defenders and spin out of tackles, much like Big Ben has done in the league. Allen’s athleticism also allows him to get outside the pocket, allowing him to keep his eyes down the field and make accurate throws 40+ yards to an open receiver. However, Allen trusts his arm strength and athleticism too much at times. When he’s out of the pocket, Allen will often just sling the ball down the field without even getting his shoulders square to the target, which resulted in several overthrows of wide open receivers, or will try to do too much and throw late across his body over the middle. When he’s pressured, Allen doesn’t always set his feet, which leads to errant throws. Against Iowa, pressure got to Allen up the middle, causing him to retreat and throw off his back foot to the wide side of the field and Josh Jackson stepped in for an easy Int. The question is consistency. On the one hand, you see flashes of brilliance. In the Idaho Potato Bowl against Central Michigan, Allen had a dominant 1st quarter, throwing for 104 yards on 6-7 passing with 3 TD. He showed off poise to climb the pocket and avoid the rush on one TD pass, hitting Jared Scott on a 23-yard post; he was able to roll right to extend the play and avoid the relentless DE Joe Ostman and got to the edge, putting his quick release on display to hit Austin Conway for an 11-yard TD; and finally displayed his elite arm strength and deep ball accuracy by hitting C.J. Johnson up the opposite seam for a 45-yard TD, putting it out in front of Johnson and over his shoulder so he didn’t have to break stride. On the other hand, there’s his accuracy. Allen has a career 56.2% completion percentage. Many have argued that a big part of his struggles this past season was due to the fact that he lacked talent around him. This argument gains traction when you look at the fact that Allen reduced his Int total from 15 in 2016 to just 6 a year later. However, completing 56.3% of his passes last year was actually an improvement from 56% in 2016, a year where three skill position players were on NFL rosters this past season – RB Brian Hill, WR Tanner Gentry and TE Jacob Hollister. If you were to compare Allen’s 2017 season to Big Ben’s sophomore season at Miami, OH, both lacked talent around them, yet Roethlisberger completed 63.3% of his passes, so the argument that a lack of talent around him only takes you so far. It’s also buyer beware for any team drafting a QB with an under-60% completion percentage. Teams often fall in love with the physical talents of a QB and are willing to roll the dice. However, the question always exists of whether a QB can improve his accuracy at the next level. The results aren’t always positive. In 2003, Kyle Boller finished his senior season with his best completion percentage at 53.4%. However, he showed off a rocket arm during his pre-draft workouts, even dropping to one knee and throwing the football 65 yards in the air. His physical talents ultimately won out and got him drafted 19th overall by the Ravens. Boller finished his eight-year career completing just 56.7%. The Titans took Jake Locker out of Washington with the 8th pick of the 2011 draft in large part because of his athleticism and playmaking ability. However, he managed to complete just 54% of his passes with the Huskies and finished his four-year NFL career at 57.5%. The most recent example was just two years ago when the Jets took Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg in the 2nd Round of the 2016 draft, trusting his size and arm strength over his 56.1% passing. Hackenberg has yet to see the field and was buried on the depth chart behind Josh McCown and Bryce Petty. There’s no doubt Allen has rare arm talent and can make throws only a handful of QB’s can make, but he will have to be consistent with his accuracy and decision making to have success at the next level. I anticipate Allen will be one of the more talked-about prospects and should be a top-10 pick in April. Prediction: 1st Round, Top-10 Pick.
Tight End
Dallas Goedert, 6’4”, 260lbs, South Dakota State
How often do you see a team whose biggest receiving threat is at TE? That is exactly what South Dakota State had in Dallas Goedert, who in his final two seasons with the Jackrabbits racked up 2404 yards on 164 receptions with 18 TD. He led the team in receptions (72) and yardage (1,111) and was second on the team in TD (7) as a senior in 2017, a year after setting a single-season Jackrabbit record with 92 receptions and amassing 1,293 yards, the fifth-most yards in school history. Goedert lined up all over the field and was a matchup nightmare as he was too fast for the LB’s over the middle and overpowered DB’s on the outside. He has exceptional hands and a large catch radius. He attacks the ball in the air and has put together an impressive highlight reel of tremendous one-handed catches. Goedert is also a savvy route runner and knows how to create separation to get open. The more I watch Goedert, the more he reminds me of Travis Kelce, who has proven to be a matchup nightmare in the NFL and I expect Goedert to be the same at the next level. One thing Goedert needs work on his as a blocker, but he won’t be drafted to be a blocker. There are teams at the end of Round One in need of a TE and I expect Goedert to battle Oklahoma’s Mark Andrews to be the first off the board. I think the next two months will be key to finalizing his draft position. Last year, Evan Engram was expected to be a 2nd Round pick until he ran a 4.42 40 time. While I don’t expect Goedert to post a sub-4.5 40 time, if he can run in the 4.6 range similar to Kelce, he has a chance at the 1st Round. Right now, I think he’ll hear his name called early in the 2nd Round. Prediction – Early 2nd Round.
Offensive Guard
Will Hernandez, 6’3”, 330lbs, UTEP
Notre Dame’s Quenton Nelson may be the clear-cut top OG in this year’s draft, but he has some competition in being the nastiest in UTEP’s Will Hernandez, who looks to maul and punish defenders lined up over him. Hernandez was a stalwart up front for the Miners, starting all 49 games in his four-year career, and was part of a line that averaged just 1.47 sacks given up over the last four seasons. Hernandez is surprisingly quick off the ball for his size and does an excellent job initiating contact against his man. He’s a knee bender who understands leverage and plays with a wide base, allowing him to use his exceptional strength to manhandle defenders at the point of attack. He’s heavy-handed and is violent with his punch off the ball, which can stifle a DT’s rush before it begins and if he gets his hands on you, don’t expect to go anywhere as he’ll sustain his block to the whistle. Hernandez shows some agility popping out of his stance and pulling as a lead blocker, getting to get to the second level with bad intentions, clearing a path by running over defenders. He does a decent job sliding laterally in pass protection, though he can be beaten off the ball with a quick first step, and anchors well against a bull rush. Hernandez can get rather handsy, as his hands will start inside on a defender before separating from the breast plate, so I’d expect to see him struggle with holding penalties until he can be more consistent with his hand placement. While there’s an outside shot at the 1st Round, I think he’s a sure-fire 2nd day pick and should hear his name called early on Friday. Prediction: Early 2nd Round.
Are you ready for the NFL Draft?