2017 NFL Draft Analysis

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February 21, 2017

2017 NFL Draft - If Numbers Did the Talking - Quarterbacks

We are currently two months before the NFL Draft begins and teams will be doing their homework on every player to determine whether they will be a fit for their organization. As I study this year's draft class, I started wondering: What if we let the numbers do the talking? We'll see what story the numbers tell us about the top players at each position. Today, we'll begin with the Quarterbacks.

The QB position is the face of a franchise. When a team selects a QB in the first half of the 1st Round, the intention is to start the QB as a rookie. What you don't want to do is reach for a QB in the 1st Round or it could set your organization back. Since 2006, there have been 21 QB's taken in the first 16 picks of the draft. Of those 21, only 10 are still with the team that drafted them, a number that includes the five QB's taken in the last three drafts (Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz). If you're wondering, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannehill are the other five. If we're to learn from history and the mistakes of others, teams should look no further than the 2011 and 2013 drafts. The former had four QB's drafted in Round One. While Newton went No. 1 overall to Carolina, you saw Tennessee (Jake Locker at # 8) Jacksonville (Blaine Gabbert at # 10) and Minnesota (Christian Ponder at # 12) reach for a shot at a franchise QB. The QB class in 2013 did not have a single QB with a 1st Round grade, yet that didn't stop Buffalo from taking E.J. Manuel with the 16th overall selection. By 2015, all four organizations were back to the drawing board with new starting QB's. This year's QB class does not have a sure-fire top 10 selection, but chances are we'll see at least one QB taken in the first 16 picks in April. Let's see what the numbers tell us about this year's crop of QB's.

Mitch Trubisky, 6'3", 220lbs, North Carolina, Jr.

Trubisky sat his first two seasons behind Marquise Williams before assuming the helm in 2016. Trubisky finished with 3,748 yards passing while completing 68% of his passes, finishing the year with 30 TD and just 6 Int. He stumbled out of the gate, throwing for just 156 yards without a TD or an Int. in a 33-24 loss to Georiga. However, Trubisky followed that up with a four-game stretch that saw him complete 1,555 yards with 13 TD and 0 Int., including three straight games with 400+ yards passing. One of those games was a 405-yard peformance against Florida State, throwing for 3 TD to help the Heels beat the Noles 37-35. Trubisky's production came to a screeching halt in wet conditions against Virginia Tech. He completed just 13 passes on 33 attempts for only 58 yards with 0 TD and 2 Int. You can bet NFL franchises will want to put him through wet ball drills after he struggled mightily to get any offensive production going against the Hokies, a game UNC lost 34-3. He finished the year completing 66% of his passes for just over 2,000 yards, 17 TD and just 4 Int. His 68% completion percentage is the highest of all the top draft-eligible QB's. Did you know his 6 Int. came in just three games? He three two against VA Tech, Duke and in the Sun Bowl against Stanford, all three of which were UNC losses. Trubisky also had eight games with multiple TD passes and 0 Int., a staggering number when you consider the next closest in this year's draft class is Cal's Davis Webb with five. The numbers tell a story of excellent accuracy and decision making. It's hard not to focus on one number, 13, which is his total number of starts. There is always a bit of an unknown when you select a QB with just one year of starting experience. On one end of the spectrum, you have Cam Newton, who won the Heisman Trophy, became the No. 1 overall pick of the Carolina Panthers after he took Auburn to a National Championship and proceeded to lead the Panthers to an NFC Championship. Then there's Akili Smith, the No. 3 pick by the Bengals in the 1999 draft. After success in his only season as a starter for the Ducks, Smith started just 17 games in 4 seasons in Cincy. At first glance, Smith's numbers at Oregon are virtually identical to Trubisky's: 3,763 yds, 30 TD, 7 Int. However, there is one glaring number that I think separates the two: Smith's completion percentage is 58%, a full 10% lower than Trubisky's. What separates Trubisky from other picks is his accuracy and ball placement, leading his receiver away from the defender where only he can get to it. The numbers say Trubisky is worthy of being selected with a top 20 pick.

Deshaun Watson, 6'2", 215lbs, Clemson, Jr.

Watson finished his illustrious career at Clemson with 10,163 career passing yards and 1,929 yards. He threw 90 TD and rushed for another 26. Watson's last two seasons saw two straight 4,000-yard seasons and was a Heisman finalist, finishing as the runner-up to Louisville's Lamar Jackson in 2016. As a sophomore, Watson was a runner as much as he was a passer, having rushed for 1,105 yards in 2015, including 100-yard games in four of the last five regular season games and a route of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. However, 2016 saw Watson change his game to be more of a passer keep him healthy. He responded with seven games of 300+ yards, including a 580-yard performance in the Tigers' only loss to Pittsburgh and 420 yards in the National Championship Game against Alabama. Watson also battled with accuracy and a seemingly inability to see the entire field , throwing 30 Int. in since 2015, the most of any FBS QB. During that time, Watson had eight games with multiple Int., compared with just six games with multiple TD and 0 Int. For all the accuracy troubles, Watson seemed to be at his best when the lights shone brightest. Watson nearly pulled off the upset of the Tide as a sophomore, trading blows with college football's top team before coming up just short 45-40. However, Watson got his revenge with a masterful performance on January 10. With 2:06 to play and Clemson down 31-28, Watson orchestrated a nine-play, 68-yard drive, culminating in a 2-yard TD pass to Hunter Renfrow with just 1 second to play. When you look at his performances in the two National Championships against Alabama, Watson completed 64% of his passes on 66-103 passing with 7 TD and just 1 Int. The numbers tell a story of a guy who is a big-game QB with star potential, but is still learning to play within the confines of the offense. Watson will need a year or two to develop before he's given the reins, which means he's a late-1st to early-2nd Round selection.

Deshone Kizer, 6'4", 230lbs, Notre Dame, RS Soph.

Kizer burst onto the scene in 2015 as an injury replacement for Malik Zaire against Virginia in the second game of the season. He went on to complete a 39-yard TD pass with 12 seconds left to lead the Irish to victory. When it was announced that Zaire would be out for the year due to injury, Kizer assumed the starting role and finished as the starter for the final 11 games of the season. As a redshirt freshman, Kizer held an 8-3 record as a starter. He became just the sixth Irish QB to finish the season with 3,000 total yards, just the second Irish QB to throw for 200 yards and rush for 100 yards in a game and became the first to do it twice. Kizer finished 2015 with a 62.9% completion percentag, throwing for over 2,800 yards and 21 TD with just 10 Int. As a sophomore, Kizer started the year with a 5 TD performance in a 50-47 double overtime loss to Texas. He then went on to throw at least 1 Int. in each of the next six games. During that stretch, he threw for at least 300 yards in three consecutive games. While the Irish suffered through narrow losses to Michigan State and Duke, maybe the changing point was against Syracuse, where he threw for 471 yards and 3 TD in a win over the Orange in the Carrier Dome. Following that game, while he never threw for 300 yards again, he finished the final five games of the year with 12 TD and just 2 Int. Kizer's accuracy in 2016 suffered a bit, completing just 58.7% of his passes. He had six games where his completion percentage dipped below 60%, though one of those really shouldn't count as it was the deluge caused by Hurricane Matthew at NC State. The numbers tell the story of a QB with an up-and-down career at Notre Dame and while his accuracy took a dip, he has momentum heading into 2017. I would have liked to have seen Kizer come back to South Bend for his redshirt junior season to not only build on that momentum, but to also work on his decision making, ability to see the entire field and consistency throwing the football. However, I see Kizer as a 2nd or 3rd Round selection.

Nate Peterman, 6'2", 225lbs, Pittsburgh

Peterman began his career at Tennessee, redshirting in 2012. In the following two seasons, Peterman played in just 11 games for the Vols before transferring to Pittsburgh. While he began the 2015 season as the backup to Chad Voytik, he took over the starting job after the second game and never relinquished the job. In 24 games as the Panthers' starting QB, Peterman threw for 5,142 yards on 61.1% passing with 47 TD to only 15 Int. In his first season as the starter, Peterman threw 2 Int. in his first action against Iowa before a streak of five straight games without an Int. and threw just two picks to finish out the regular season before a 3-Int. performance in a losing effort against Navy in the Military Bowl. As a senior, Peterman ended the year with five games without an Int., including Pitt's memorable 43-42 victory over eventual National Champion Clemson, throwing for 308 yards with 5 TD to get the upper hand in the shootout against Deshaun Watson. While Peterman threw 27 TD and just 7 Int., he failed to complete 60% of his passes in seven of Pitt's 13 games in 2016. Peterman has drawn comparisons to Redskins QB because they offer similar attributes on the field. However, their senior stats tell a similar story. Cousins' completion percentage (63.7% to 60.5%) and passing yardage (3,316 to 2,855) tops Peterman's totals, but the latter averaged more yards per attempt (9.3 to 7.9) and also threw for 2 more TD and 3 less Int. Neither QB put up eye-popping numbers, only throwing for 300 yards once apiece. Their QB Rating compared favorably as well, as Cousins had one game with a QBR over 200 and another four games over 180 while Peterman had three game with a QBR above 200 and another at 197.5. The numbers don't overly impress, but it does show Peterman can be efficient and generally makes good decisions. If you go by the numbers, you see a 5th or 6th Round pick. However, much like Cousins, it's what the numbers don't show, the pro style experience, command of the offense and his leadership that will likely make him a 4th Rounder.

Patrick Mahomes, 6'4", 230lbs, Texas Tech, Jr.

When you watch Mahomes play, it doesn't take long to see impressive arm talent and athleticism to go with his backyard football mentality and an unwillingness to play within the confines of an offense. But what if we just looked at the numbers? As a freshman, Mahomes was backing up Davis Webb before an injury put Mahomes into the starting lineup with just four games to go. In the final three games of the season, Mahomes threw for 1,319 yards and 14 TD with just 2 Int. Mahomes became the full-time starter as a Sophmore for the Red Raiders and threw for over 4,600 yards on 63.5% passing with 36 TD and 15 Int. There were only three games where Mahomes didn't top 300 yards passing, and he eclipsed the 400-yard mark four times. However, Mahomes struggled to close out the season with 17 TD and 10 Int. over the final seven games. As a junior in 2016, Mahomes surpassed 5,000 yards passing and threw 4 TD for every Int. (41-10) while completing over 65% of his passes. He finished the season throwing over 300 yards in nine of 12 games, including two 400-yard and three 500-yard performances. And who can forget the record-setting game against Oklahoma? Mahomes set an FBS record with 819 total yards of offense, tied the record of 734 passing yards and his 88 passing attempts fell just one shy of another record. Even with all the records, the Sooners still won the game 66-59. In his final game in a Red Raider uniform, Mahomes finished with 586 yards on 65% passing and 6 TD with just 0 Int. in a 54-35 win against Baylor. The numbers are indicative of Texas Tech's Air Raid offense, which doesn't necessarily translate to success at the next level. However, the numbers show improved accuracy and decision making year over year. The physical tools have to pique everyone's interest, but can he adapt to the pro game? Mahomes will be a polarizing prospect who could come off the board anywhere from the 2nd to 5th Rounds, but I think the best value is somewhere in the 3rd-to-4th Round range.

Davis Webb, 6'5", 230lbs, Cal

Webb actually began his career at Texas Tech, where he threw for 5,557 yards on 61.4% passing with just over a 2:1 TD to Int. ratio (46 TD, 22 Int) in three seasons with the Red Raiders from 2013-2015. Webb went down to injury in 2014 and lost the starting job to Patrick Mahomes and was subsequently his backup for the remainder of his time in Lubbock. Webb went to Cal as a graduate transfer, attracted to the Bear Raid offense implemented by Sonny Dykes. Webb finished the season top five in the FBS in attempts (620), completions (382), total plays (653) and passing yards (4,295), passing TD (37) and total yards per game (348.8). Webb began his career with the Bears with five straight games over 300 yards. In fact, he averaged 428.2 passing yards per game over that stretch on 61% passing with 22 TD and 6 Int. Cal went 3-2 during that span, with Webb throwing multiple picks in each of the losses. Maybe Webb's best game came in Week 7 when the Bears upset Oregon 52-49 in double overtime. In that game, Webb threw for 325 yards on 68.9% passing with 5 TD and 0 Int. Cal was above .500 with a 4-3 record following that game, but the team went on a four-game losing streak and Webb threw 8 TD and 5 Int. during that streak. 2016 saw Webb throw 357.9 passing yards per game with just two games under the 300-yard mark and five games under 60% completion percentage. The numbers tell the story of how a team went as its QB went. Their QB threw for a lot of yards, but his inconsistency seemed to play a big hand in the final outcome of the game. Webb has all of the physical skills to play at the next level. The question will be whether he can be consistent with his accuracy, timing and ball placement. Webb should be a mid-round pick.

Brad Kaaya, 6'4", 215lbs, Miami, Fla., Jr.

Kaaya came to "The U" from Southern California as a highly touted recruit and will be leaving Miami as the all-time passing leader with 9,968 yards passing and 3rd on the all-time list with 69 TD. As a true freshman, Kaaya had his share of growing pains, failing to complete 60% of his passes in seven games and throwing multiple Int. in four games. However, he did eclipse the 3,000 yard passing mark with 26 TD, just one shy of his total in 2016. As a sophomore, Kaaya's accuracy improved. He completed over 60% of his passes and had just 5 passes picked off the entire season. Kaaya threw at least one TD in each of the final five games and the team went 3-2 in those games, winning the three games where he was efficient throwing the football and completed over 60% of his passes. As a junior, Kaaya was expected to take a huge leap forward with Mark Richt taking the helm as head coach. He completed 62% of his passes for over 3,500 yards and 27 TD, all of which were career highs for a season, and had four games with 4 TD and 0 Int. However, he also had four games where he failed to throw a TD pass. What may have been his most impressive outing was his last, throwing for 282 yards while completing 70.2% of his passes with 4 TD and 0 Int. in a 31-14 win over Wst Virginia in the Russell Athletic Bowl. In his three years with the Hurricanes, Kaaya improved his completion percentage, threw for more yards and more TD passes each year. He also has the fewest rushing yards of any of the top QB's in this year's draft class, finishing his career with -386 yards on the ground on 94 carries. The numbers show a productive QB over his three years at Miami and one who continued to develop each year. The numbers also show that he struggled with some consistency as his career completion percentage of 60.6% will attest. The lack of rushing yards is also telling, which would lead you to suspect that Kaaya is more of a pocket passer and not very elusive, which would be entirely accurate. Kaaya is a statue in the pocket, much like Sean Mannion was coming out of Oregon State two years ago and he went in the 3rd Round to the Rams. The numbers say a similar draft position isn't out of the question for Kaaya, but there's also a chance he's still available until the middle of Day 3.

December 22, 2016
2017 NFL Draft - A look at the Top 10 Part I - Who missed the cut?

If you have a pick in the top 10, how would you determine who to select? Some teams go based on need, while others look for the best player available. When I evaluate the draft, I'm looking at the top 10 as elite prospects that can affect the game on every down. This year is no different. I went position by position through this year's draft to see who made the most sense at the top of the draft. There are a few players and positions that just missed the cut.

Tim Williams - The Alabama OLB is an explosive pass rusher off the edge and can affect the game with his ability to get to the QB. However, while Williams came back to Tuscaloosa to show he can be an every-down LB, he was used more as a pass rush specialist. I didn't see consistent play against the run or in coverage to warrant a top 10 selection. However, He should be off the board in the teens. Remember, Seattle surprised everyone when they took West Virginia's Bruce Irvin 15th overall in the 2012 draft. Irvin was nothing more than a pass rush specialist early on, but he's developed into an every-down LB. I expect the same from Williams.

Malik McDowell - The former Spartan is the top DT in this year's draft. He has incredible athleticism for his size and dominates interior linemen when he's firing on all cylinders. McDowell uses his burst and long wingspan to win at the point of attack. He even has the speed to chase down the ball carrier down the line from the backside. While McDowell may be one of the top athletes in this year's draft, consistency and production are cause for concern. McDowell's motor runs hot and cold and doesn't make the impact on a game you would expect from an athlete of his caliber. Injuries are also cause for concern, as he only played in nine games during his freshman and junior seasons. With that said, his potential is too much to ignore in Round 1. His size, length and athleticism remind me a couple of former Oregon Ducks, DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead. Buckner's production made him the 7th pick in last year's draft, while Armstead was the 17th overall selection a year before based on potential. McDowell will fall somewhere in between, just outside the top 10.

Teez Tabor - A season ago, Tabor emerged as one of the top young CB's in the country for the Gators, often outplaying eventual 1st Round pick Vernon Hargreaves III in the process. He made a name for himself with his ball skills (14 pass breakups) and playmaking ability, having returned 2 of his 4 Int. for TD. Tabor is a smooth athlete with fluid hips to quickly turn and run with WR's. He gets over the top of routes and does a good job taking away the inside on vertical routes, pinning the WR to the sideline. His recognition skills are uncanny, often running the routes ahead of the WR. Tabor also has incredible timing when driving on the ball, arriving just as the ball is getting there to make a play on the football and avoid a pass interference penalty. If there's a knock on his game, it would likely be coming up in run support. However, Tabor may very well be the top CB in this year's draft. So why wouldn't he be a top-10 pick? There are character concerns, so teams will have to do their homework. Tabor was suspended for refusing to take a drug test in 2015 and was suspended for a violation of team rules to begin the 2016 season. Keep in mind, off-field issues kept Marcus Peters out of the top 10 and he's only gone on to be one of the top CB's in the NFL. Teams must be sure before they pass on Teez.

Marlon Humphrey - Few CB's burst on the scene in 2015 quite like Humphrey, starting as a redshirt freshman under the bright lights of AT&T Stadium against Wisconsin. He proceeded to put up Freshman All-America numbers for the Tide, registering 8 pass breakups and 3 Int. to go with 45 tackles, 3.5 for loss and 2 forced fumbles. Humphrey has NFL bloodlines as he's the son of former NFL RB Bobby Humphrey, which seemed to help as the moment never seemed too big for him. He has excellent size and length for a CB. His long arms allow him to reach in and make plays on the football, even if the WR has a step on him. Humphrey is often in phase with the WR, making it difficult for the WR to create separation and gets his head around to locate the ball. He has excellent ball skills with a knack for getting to the football, driving quickly on the ball and then timing his jumps to make a play. So many people have said if Humphrey comes out, he's a sure-fire top-10 pick. My problem is with with the stiff hips and slow change of direction. When Humphrey is asked to run with the WR, he's among the best in this draft. However, the WR's in the NFL won't be running vertical routes all the time. Humphrey looks really tight in his transitions, something that NFL QB's are sure to exploit. This is a loaded draft when it comes to the CB position, but Humphrey's elite ball skills warrant a 1st Round grade. However, his value is somewhere between picks 11-20.

Zach Cunningham - The tackling machine from Vandy is one of the better athletes in this year's draft. He has excellent instincts, diagnoses plays early and has the speed and lateral quickness to make plays sideline to sideline. In three seasons, he racked up 250 tackles, including 119 this year as a junior. Cunningham can also affect However, he only has six sacks in his career with the Commodores and has yet to bring down the quarterback in 2016. He's definitely out of his element in coverage as well and is late to pick up backs out of the backfield. There's no question the All-American is a sure-fire 1st Rounder. Just expect him to come off the board somewhere between picks 15 and 25.

Offensive Tackles - The OT position was once seen as a safe pick in the 1st Round. However, the results are a mixed bag of late when selecting an OT in the top 10. Over the last five years, we have seen a total of 10 OT's taken in the first ten picks. Brandon Scherff and Jack Conklin have proven early that their talent was worth the high selection. Eric Fisher has been improving and there's some encouraging signs that he can develop into one of the better OT's in the league. The jury is still out on the likes of Ronnie Stanley and Jake Matthews. While Ereck Flowers, Greg Robinson, Luke Joeckel, Lane Johnson (PED suspension) and Matt Kalil have largely been disappointments. This draft has two OT's that are in contention for a high draft pick - Alabama's Cam Robinson and Ryan Ramczyk of Wisconsin. Robinson is only a junior, but the Lombardi Award winner is expected to declare for the draft before the January deadline. His run blocking prowess is evident with his ability to generate movement at the line of scrimmage while also possessing the agility to climb to the second level to take on defenders in the open field. Robinson is still developing as a pass blocker and has some inconsistent tape. I think you add in his off-field issues prior to the 2016 season and Robinson's stock should sit somewhere just out of the top 10. In the case of Ramczyk, he has only one year of FBS-level experience after transferring from Wisconsin-Stevens Point prior to his junior season. He has steadily risen up draft boards with an impressive blend of power, size and quickness. He's all but dominated Big 10 opponents on the left side of the line. I'd be more comfortable with picking Ramczyk in the top 10 if he had another dominant year with the Badgers. He hasn't declared yet, so a return to Madison is still a possibility. If he does come out, he'll battle Robinson for the top OT off the board in April.

Quarterbacks - If you take a QB in the top half of the 1st Round, the expectation is that he'll be on the field early. Unfortunately, this is not the year of the QB as the top prospects at the position have too many questions to be considered this high. Deshone Kizer may be the top QB prospect given his prototypical size and arm strength. He moves well in the pocket and can make every throw. However, his decision making was questionable at times and his play wasn't consistent enough (58.7% completion and 9 Int. in 2016) to warrant a pick this high. Mitch Trubisky was very efficient for the Tar Heels with a 68.9% completion percentage and just 4 Int. to go with 28 TD and impressed with his ball placement, but there is such a small body of work and he did sit behind Marquise Williams for three years before he finally took the helm. Then there's Deshaun Watson, a two-time Davey O'Brien Award winner with excellent athleticism and NFL-level arm talent, but the decision making, which led to 28 Int. over the last two seasons, is too much to ignore.

Now I'm not saying any of the aforementioned prospects won't end up selected in the top 10 in April. I am just looking at who has the ability to affect every play. If I'm a team drafting that high, I want to be sure I land a difference maker in all facets of the game. I'm going to ask these questions: Which offensive players can take over a game at any moment? Which defensive players are disruptive on every down? Stay tuned to find out who made the cut.