2024 NFL Draft: First Round Mock Draft and Analysis

1.    Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams, 6’1”, 214lbs, QB, USC, Jr.
04/18/24 – Caled Williams, QB, USC
03/29/24 – Caleb Williams, QB, USC
02/22/24 – Caleb Williams, QB, USC

It feels like déjà vu all over again for the Chicago Bears sitting atop the NFL Draft with the No. 1 overall selection, albeit by very different circumstances this year.  A season ago, the Bears had the worst record in the NFL, but that didn’t stop GM Ryan Poles from dealing the top pick to the Carolina Panthers for WR DJ Moore, and a slew of draft picks, one of those being Carolina’s 1st Round pick in this year’s draft.  After the Panthers finished the 2023 season with a 2-14 record, the Bears landed the No. 1 pick.  The question for some was whether Chicago should keep Justin Fields or trade him and draft USC phenom and 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams.  It appeared to be a foregone conclusion that Fields will be dealt in favor or the much-ballyhooed Williams.  And it made sense, right?  Poles and Co. had to ask themselves if they still believed in Fields to get them not only to the playoffs, but to be a contender in the NFC.  Since the jury was still out on that answer, then why not restart the clock with a rookie QB contract?  The numbers also supported giving Fields a fresh start – he’s 10-28 since taking over as the starter on September 26, 2021, completing just over 60% of his passes with 40 TD and 29 Int. as a starter.  His biggest impact has been on the ground where his dual threat ability has allowed him to amass 2186 rushing yards during that same timeframe.  Fields has shown glimpses that maybe he can get it done, but consistency has been the major question mark.  The Pittsburgh Steelers took advantage of a luke warm market for Fields and per ESPN traded for the former 11th overall pick in 2021, giving up a 2025 6th Round pick that converts to a 4th Round selection if Fields plays 51% of the snaps in 2024.  Caleb Williams has largely been touted as a special talent who always seems to find an answer regardless of what the defense throws at him.  His creativity and ability to improvise off script has the next level salivating at his potential.  Williams started his career at Oklahoma, where he was thrusted into the starting role following a dramatic comeback win over rival Texas in the 2021 Red River Rivalry game.  That season showed us glimpses of not only the arm strength, but also his creativity – he once took the ball from RB Kennedy Brooks who was stuffed behind the line of scrimmage on a 4th down play with 3:28 to play while losing to Kansas spinning away to pick up the 1st down which helped OU escape an upset bid by the Jayhawks.  Williams followed HC Lincoln Riley to USC where he had a spectacular sophomore year in his first full season as a starter.  Williams completed 66.6% of his passes for 4,537 yards and 42 TD to just 5 Int. while also racking up 382 yards and 11 TD on the ground.  He demonstrated an innate ability to escape pressure in the pocket with a variety of moves, staying calm while keeping his eyes down the field.  His elusiveness in the pocket frustrated defenses and Williams didn’t ever really appear rattled or in danger.  Any time Williams looked to be in the defense’s grasp, he’d pull a Houdini act, ducking, sidestepping, spinning away or otherwise slipping through the fingers of defenders with incredible balance then showcasing tremendous acceleration to not only get out of danger, but often deliver a big play on the ground.  Who could forget his 20-yard run against Notre Dame where it looked like the Irish defense had him bottled up, only for Williams to retreat, avoid multiple defenders while circling back then using tremendous field vision to reverse field back to the left to pick up a 1st down which led to a back-breaking TD to defeat the Irish?  And then there was the performance in the Pac-12 Championship.  Though it was a losing effort, Williams’ toughness and competitiveness was on display.  After jumping out to a quick 17-3 lead in the 1st quarter, we finally saw Williams face some adversity.  He again showcased his wizardry on the ground with a dynamic 59-yard run, but he felt his hamstring pop on that play, meaning he’d have to play the remainder of the game on one leg because there was no way he was coming out of the game.  Williams finished the day 28-41 for 361 yards and 3 TD with 1 Int., yet his most memorable throw may have been a 40+ yard throw outside the pocket where he was throwing the ball essentially off one leg, yet still had an amazing amount of torque and arm strength to complete the pass over the defense.  Williams’ 52 total TD that year was a school record, and not only did he find himself in New York, but he also joined Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart as Trojan QBs to win the Heisman.  Expectations were high for Williams in 2023 and there was much talk that he might become the second two-time Heisman winner.  However, a historically bad defense coupled with a rather porous offensive line put a tremendous amount of pressure on Willaims’ shoulder as he often had to put his team on his back to eke out a victory.  No game was more apparent than the thrilling 43-41 triple OT win over an upstart and game Arizona team led by redshirt freshman QB Noah Fifita.  Williams didn’t have his best day throwing the football, accounting for just 219 yards and 1 TD through the air, but he found the end zone 3 times on the ground, and it was his leadership that propelled the Trojans to victory.  Down by 3 with 2:08 to play. Williams calmly led the Trojans on a 58-yard drive that culminated with a FG as time expired to tie the game.  He then led the team to scores on all three of its possessions.  However, it was the third TD that was most memorable, an unorthodox lineup that saw the OL lined up toward the sideline to the left with TE Lake McRee snapping the ball.  Williams took the snap and ran right, showing tremendous effort to extend the ball just inside the pylon before going out of bounds.  USC was 6-0 and Williams had completed 83.2% of his passes for 1,822 yards and 22 TD to just 1 Int.  Then the Trojans met Notre Dame and Williams faced adversity with constant pressure in his face that forced him to try and do way too much, which led to 3 of his 5 total Int. on the year and a 48-20 beating at the hands of the Irish.  Williams faced criticism for his play the remainder of the year, though he still completed 66.2% of his passes for 1811 yards and 8 TD and 4 Int.  USC finished the season 1-5 as the defense struggled to slow down any of the remaining opponents.  Many talk about Williams looking to play hero ball, meaning he would pass on what the defense gives him in favor of the big play.  While he does need to temper this behavior, Williams was often faced with having to put his team on his back knowing his defense couldn’t slow anyone down.  It was as if the Trojans had to score on every drive in order to remain in the game.  Because of his inability at times to take what the defense gives him; it does appear as though Williams doesn’t see the entire field.  However, that’s not entirely accurate because he has shown the ability to do just that from a clean pocket.  Williams does struggle with consistent accuracy while throwing the ball outside the numbers down the field.  Ball security is another huge concern as Williams is often careless with the way he holds the football as he’s looking to make a play, racking up 16 fumbles a season ago, which finished 2nd in the FBS per Pro Football Focus.  However, it’s undeniable that there are throws that very few QBs can make.  And I know the comparisons to Patrick Mahomes are unfair, but whether you watch him rolling left or right, retreating or moving toward the line of scrimmage, he is able to make throws with a tremendous amount of velocity with impressive torque to get his hips around and deliver an accurate ball, it’s hard not to want to go there.  Then there’s Williams’ uncanny ability to throw from a number of arm angles and he varies it up depending on what the defense presents, often dropping the arm angle to throw around defenders.  His improvisational skills are off the charts, and he seems at home when playing off script.  He just needs to learn to dial back the hero ball and take more calculated risks.  It is amazing how the Caleb Williams haters also came after his character.  It’s easy to point to his nail painting and call the profanity left on the nails when SC played UCLA, Notre Dame and Utah, but what’s left out is the fact that for weeks he painted “988” on his nails in support of suicide prevention.  In fact, Williams has become a champion for mental health and his charity, the Caleb Cares Foundation, is geared toward anti-bullying and the mental health of kids and teens.  There’s been this false narrative that he’s a poor teammate and leader.  However, you can’t find anyone on the team that has said a bad word about him.  Williams was always seen talking with his receivers, OL and even the defense to motivate as a leader does.  He’s the only player to fly his entire OL out to the Heisman ceremony and brought the group with him to the mound when he threw out the first pitch at Dodger Stadium.  Williams took his leadership to include other sports teams on campus, showing his support attending several games.  He also used his NIL deal with Beats by Dre to provide not only his teammates, but other Trojan teams with their own set of headphones.  And if you’re worried about how he’ll handle the contract, fear not as he’s already experienced in that space, having earned around $10 million in NIL deals over his two seasons at USC according to The Athletic.  The naysayers talk about how fragile he is having seen crying on the sideline or, as we saw after a crushing loss against Washington, in the arms of his family.  However, it shows he’s ultra-competitive, he plays with his heart on his sleeve and he’s comfortable showing he’s human.  There’s no doubt Chicago is desperate for sustained success at the QB position.  Since the Bears last went to the Super Bowl in 2006, there have been 20 QBs to start a game with just three playoff appearances and only one playoff win since.  From Rex Grossman to Jay Cutler to Mitchell Trubisky to Justin Fields, QB play has failed to live up to expectations.  Williams has said he wants to rewrite history and Bears fans are hoping he can finally get the job done.

2.    Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels, 6’4”, 210lbs, QB, LSU
04/18/24 – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
03/29/24 – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
02/22/24 – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

The Ron Rivera era in Washington is over after a four-year stint that started promising with an NFL East title in 2020 but ended with a whimper as the Commanders never finished higher than 3rd in Rivera’s final three seasons.  New HC Dan Quinn’s first order of business had to be investing in the offense, which was a main reason for bringing in Kliff Kingsbury to take over as OC.  Kingsbury will undoubtedly want a QB that fits his air raid offense and Sam Howell proved in his first season as a full-time starter that he’s not ready to be a starter.   Howell led the NFL with 21 Int. and only Zach Wilson, Mac Jones and Bryce Young had a lower QB rating than his 78.9.  You have to expect Drake Maye and his experience in the air raid under Phil Longo at UNC will garner serious consideration, but Kingsbury’s experience with dual threat QB’s like Kyler Murray and Caleb Williams along with the signing of Marcus Mariota makes me believe Jayden Daniels will be the pick here.  Daniels has come quite a long way since his early days at Arizona State, where he showed promise, but struggled with consistency, as evidenced by the 10 TD and 10 Int. thrown in 2021 during his redshirt sophomore season with the Sun Devils.  Then Daniels transferred to LSU and his career really took off, where his completion percentage continued to rise by three points year over year.  Daniels improved from a 62% career passer to a 70% passer and saw his QB rating jump by 30 points.  He became the only player in FBS history with over 12,000 passing yards and 3,000 yards on the ground.  This past season was the culmination of his hard work, throwing for 3,812 yards on 72.2% passing with 40 TD to just 4 Int. while also racking up 1,134 yards and 10 TD on the ground, earning him the 2023 Heisman Trophy in the process.  One of the keys to Daniels’ success starts before the ball even snaps.  He does a tremendous job reading the defense in front of him and has a plan to attack it, showcasing his high football IQ.  Daniels’ pre-snap blitz recognition allows him to make adjustments on the fly and he does a great job getting his team on the same page, showing tremendous calm under pressure.  Once the ball is snapped, Daniels is at his best inside the pocket, having thrown 35 of his 40 TD this past season from within the pocket.  You see his ability to see the entire field, showing poise in the pocket while quickly going through his progressions.  Daniels’ pocket presence allows him to feel pressure from defenders and he’s a smooth operator showing quick feet to step up and slide to buy time while keeping his eyes down the field.  Daniels’ footwork is on point as he’s rarely off balance inside the pocket, which allows him to deliver an accurate ball.  He does a great job reading leverage and throws his WR’s open with tremendous anticipation, allowing his receivers to haul in the catch in stride and then make a play.  Daniels’ anticipation allows him to put the pass on a line right over the LB and before the safety could drive on it, allowing the WR to make the catch in stride coming across the field, avoid defenders and ten get down the field.  And the touch Daniels displays allows him to put the perfect trajectory on passes down the field, placing the ball with enough air out in front of the WR to allow him to run through the catch.  Daniels is also lethal as a runner as he’s light on his feet to avoid defenders in space with a variety of moves and then uses his quick acceleration to eat up a lot of yards in a hurry.  On designed runs, Daniels does a great job pressing the line of scrimmage while looking for a hole before putting his foot in the ground and getting downhill in a hurry.  His creativity on the move is what makes Daniels so special on the ground.  Just watch him juke out Alabama Trezmen Marshall, forcing the LB to dive at air, or his run to the outside on Deontae Lawson that caused him to get his legs caught up and fall down, allowing Daniels to cut it back across the field for a big gain.  And who could forget his clutch 35-yard TD run against Missouri down 32-27 with 8 minutes to play where he took the snap and hit the hole downhill as the middle opened up, showing off his ability to get to full speed so quickly that LB Ty’Ron Hopper was never able to track him down.  Daniels had four games with over 100 yards on the ground, including 163 yards against Bama and 234 yards versus Florida in back-to-back wins down the stretch.  Daniels has a relatively slight frame and if you couple that with his unwillingness to slide and that’s a potential recipe for disaster as he took several big hits throughout his career.  He also has a tendency to drop his eyes and look for an alley to run too soon.  While Daniels does a great job with anticipation, his ball placement can get him in trouble at times, especially down the field and while he throws with tremendous touch, he doesn’t have the arm strength to drive the ball quite like other QB’s in this year’s draft class.  As a result, while you often see him drop the ball in down the middle of the field, his throws to the outside can get him in trouble.  Daniels’ skillset as a dual threat QB makes him the perfect fit for Kingsbury.

3.    New England Patriots – Drake Maye, 6’4”, 223lbs, QB, North Carolina, Jr.
04/18/24 – Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
03/29/24 – Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
02/22/24 – Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

For the first time since 1999, someone other than Bill Belichick will be patrolling the sidelines in New England.  In steps Jerod Mayo as HC and Eliot Wolf as de facto GM.  The two inherit a roster that has many holes to fill on the offensive side of the ball, meaning while QB is a position that must be addressed this offseason, there is a chance it may not be done with this pick.  For one thing, the Pats are sorely lacking playmakers at the skill positions.  Demario Douglas was quite a surprise, having led the team with 561 receiving yards and finishing second in receptions with 49.  However, three of the team’s other four leaders in receptions came from non-wideouts, led by RB Ezekiel Elliott who is now a UFA.  Then there’s the OL, where OT Trent Brown is a pending free agent as well.  Could the Patriots really pass on a QB in favor of a go-to wideout like Marvin Harrison Jr. or an OT like Joe Alt?  I don’t see it happening.  The Mac Jones experiment is officially over following his trade to Jacksonville.  Jacoby Brissett was brought in as a replacement and would be a perfect bridge QB to help bring along a rookie.  I fully expect the Pats to take whichever QB falls to them here at No. 3.  That is, if they keep the pick.  The key needs extend beyond the QB position and Minnesota picked up a second 1st Round pick when it landed the 23rd pick from Houston.  I fully expect the Vikes to package that pick and No. 11 overall in the attempt to move up and land a top QB.  Could it be with the Patriots?  Now that Justin Fields is off to Pittsburgh, I could only see this happening if New England is looking at JJ McCarthy or Bo Nix as a target at No. 11 and even then, there’s no guarantee either would be available.  Could they take an LT like Olu Fashanu with the first pick and then use the 23rd pick on Michael Penix Jr.?  Until any deals are formalized, let’s expect the Pats to stay put and take UNC redshirt sophomore Drake Maye.  Is he a good fit?  Well new OC Alex Van Pelt has worked with a lot of different QB’s during his time running an offense, from Aaron Rodgers to Andy Dalton to Ryan Fitzpatrick to Baker Mayfield to Deshaun Watson.  Maye seems like the perfect match for Van Pelt.  Maye has the size, arm strength and athleticism will draw comparisons to Justin Herbert, but it’s his gunslinger mentality that can make him a boom-or-bust prospect.  Maye burst onto the national scene as a redshirt freshman where he threw for 4,321 yards on 66.2% passing with 38 TD and 7 Int. while also running for 698 yards and 7 TD, finishing 10th in the Heisman voting in the process.  2023 was a different season as his numbers dropped across the board (63.3%, 3,608 yards, 24 TD, 9 Int.).  And the season started out so promising too as Maye was 3rd in the FBS in total yards through a 5-0 start to the season.  But UNC’s OL play dipped significantly in 2023 and his play suffered because of it.  Maye tends to make poor decisions when he trusts his arm strength too much and tries to fit a throw that’s just not there.  He also gets himself into trouble with inconsistent footwork as his throws tend to be off target when his base isn’t solid, which typically happens when he’s forced off his initial dropback.  And while his deep ball is on point, dropping passes in the bucket with ease, he tends to be off target with his intermediate throws, especially on throws where he’s asked to lead the WR across the field as he tends to put the ball behind the receiver, often on his back hip.  That said, there is a lot to like about his game.  Maye makes what he does in the pocket look so effortless.  He does a tremendous job at the line with pre-snap recognition, knowing where the blitz is coming from, making the right checks and throwing to the space where the blitzing defender vacated.  Even when there’s a free rusher, Maye does not panic, rather he retreats to buy time and keep separation from the defender while keeping his eyes down the field and finding the open man.  Maye’s pocket presence as a whole is smooth, allowing him to easily sidestep the rush or spin away from trouble then deliver a strike.  Maye does a tremendous job with manipulating defenders with his eyes, often looking off his intended target to freeze a safety or get a LB to bite to then take advantage of man coverage.  And his arm strength is among the best in this year’s draft, which he uses to push the ball vertically on one play, then fit the pass into the tightest of windows where only his WR can make a play.  It’s easy to see how Maye’s game translates to the next level as he was asked to make every throw in an NFL route tree with the Tar Heels.  Then you throw in the athleticism as Maye uses his size, strength and speed to make plays with his legs.  If Caleb is the wizard and Daniels is the speed merchant, then Maye is the long strider.  He’s a lot faster than you’d expect given his size.  Against NC State, Maye was able to beat LB Payton Wilson to the edge on a 3rd and 3 play that allowed him to pick up the 1st down.  Yes, the same Wilson who ran a 4.43 40 at the Combine.  I think that having Brissett on the roster gives the Pats a competent starter will take pressure off Maye and allow him to ease into the eventual starting role.

4.    Arizona Cardinals – Marvin Harrison Jr., 6’3”, 209lbs, WR, Ohio State, Jr.
04/18/24 – Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
03/29/24 – Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
02/22/24 – Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

Monti Ossenfort and Jonathan Gannon had to know that their first year would be a rough one, especially with Kyler Murray still recovering from his ACL tear suffered in December.  While Joshua Dobbs filled in admirably to start the year and Murray returned to action in mid-November, the team couldn’t escape a 4-13 record.  While the Cards finished the year with a top-five rushing attack in the league, the passing attack fizzled and finished 26th overall.  Murray is back and healthy for the 2024 season and you have to expect Ossenfort and Gannon to continue to construct that offense around him, especially considering he lobbied for Paris Johnson Jr. prior to last season’s draft before the team selected him with the 6th overall pick.  Murray has had some prolific WR’s to throw to during his five-year career, including the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green and Christian Kirk.  This past season, the roster lacked a true No. 1 wideout as it was TE Trey McBride who led the team in receptions.  The next two receivers with the highest number of receptions, Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore, will both be in new uniforms next season.  There is no doubt this pick will be used in the top WR still on the board and while you can make a case for both Rome Odunze and Malik Nabers here, at the end of the day, Ossenfort and Gannon won’t overthink it and will take Harrison Jr. here.  Marvin Harrison Jr. has been a dynamic force for the Buckeyes, especially over the last two seasons, where he hauled in 144 passes for 2,474 yards, averaging 17.2 yards per reception, and 28 TD over that span.  He is the reigning Biletnikoff Award winner for the nation’s top WR and finished 4th in the Heisman voting this past season.  He leaves Columbus with 15 100-yard games and scored a TD in 19 of 30 career games, including 9 multi-TD games.  It’s unreal how much MHJ reminds you of his father Hall of Fame father Marvin Harrison with the way he plays the game.  His route running is so reminiscent of his father as he is able to maintain the same speed throughout the route and it’s remarkable how a 6’3” WR can sink his hips and be so sudden coming out of his breaks to create separation.  Like his dad, Harrison Jr. is not known as a burner, but it’s how he sets up his man and sells the route so well that he’s able to find himself wide open.  He varies his release off the line, showing a stutter on one play, then a hop on the next to give the corner a different look.  His suddenness is often on display on crossing routes as he wins to the inside against off coverage and is able to maintain that speed across the field, uncovering in the process and he runs through the catch to then turn up the field.  When the ball is in the air, MHJ does a great job tracking the ball and has incredible body control to make quick adjustments to the ball to put himself in prime position to make a play.  He has a large catch radius which makes it easy for QBs because if you put the ball anywhere near him, you can count on him making a play on the ball.  Harrison Jr. also knows how to create separation late with a quick nudge to the defender before leaping and high pointing the football.  You have to love the footwork along the sideline as he always knows exactly where he is and makes sure he gets two feet inbounds before going out.  And expect him to use that big body to his advantage, shielding the defender from the football or contorting that frame to adjust and pluck the ball out of the air.  On back shoulder throws, MHJ is great at squeezing the space against the corner, playing chest to chest before opening up at the last moment to make a play on the football.  Harrison Jr. is also a solid blocker on the perimeter, showing an ability to remain square against the DB and extending his arms while keeping his feet moving to sustain his blocks.  While MHJ is strong enough to fight through the physicality of the DB at the top of his route, he can still work on fighting through a physical jam at the line of scrimmage.  His go-to move is always the stutter which can make him predictable at times.  Because he’s not a burner, Harrison Jr. won’t be able to outrun defenders and isn’t the most dynamic after the catch so I think there is a question of just how explosive he can be after the catch at the next level.

5.    Los Angeles Chargers – JC Latham, 6’6”, 342lbs, OT, Alabama, Jr.
04/18/24 – JC Latham, OT, Alabama
03/29/24 – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
02/22/24 – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

The Chargers organization has felt like the most snakebit of all franchises in the NFL since the turn of the century.  After a slow start with four straight losing seasons, the Bolts finished atop the AFC West in five of the next six seasons, including four straight between 2006 and 2009.  However, each season ended up in disappointment in the playoffs.  The Chargers have not won the division since and have only been to the playoffs three times since.  Last season felt like a year LA could contend given the talent on the roster, but it quickly fell off the rails and after a 5-9 start to the season, HC Brandon Staley was let go.  The big splash of the offseason was the signing of Jim Harbaugh, fresh off a national championship victory at Michigan.  There is no question Harbaugh has won everywhere he’s been as a head coach, so Bolts fans have to be excited at the potential.  However, with the Chargers well over the cap entering the offseason, decisions had to be made on the futures of edge rushers Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa along with WR’s Mike Williams and Allen.  While Mack’s contract was restructured, Bosa’s future is still up in the air while Williams was released, and Allen was traded to Chicago.  Even though LA used last year’s 1st Round pick on WR Quentin Johnston, he’s still unproven and the fact that both Williams and Allen are gone, it’s hard to believe this pick will be used on anything other than a true No. 1 wideout, especially considering Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze will be top-end WR1s at the next level.  Some believe that given Harbaugh’s use of TE’s in his offenses, Georgia’s Brock Bowers would be on the top of the list.  However, the signings of Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst suggest Bowers won’t be the pick.  Then there’s the OT position, where Rashawn Slater is a Pro-Bowl caliber LT when healthy, but it’s possible the Chargers could look for an upgrade from Trey Pipkins who finished last season as the 50th rated OT in the league per Pro Football Focus after signing a three-year, $21.75 million contract following a breakout 2022 season.  Harbaugh is big on being physical up front, so adding an OT like Joe Alt, who has the athleticism and football acumen to make a move to the right side, does make a lot of sense.  However, given Pipkins is just a year removed from a standout 2022 season, LA could decide to give him another shot with better coaching.  Plus, the depth of the OT position would still allow the Chargers to draft a top tier OT to push Pipkins for playing time.  The one exception to this would be if the Vikings use their two 1st Round picks to trade up to No. 5 overall to ensure they land a QB, likely JJ McCarthy.  Trading down to No. 11 would be a perfect spot to land one of the top two pure RTs in this year’s draft - Taliese Fuaga and JC Latham, both of whom would give Harbaugh a physical presence at RT that he covets, and the Bolts could still land a WR like Adonai Mitchell with the 23rd pick.  While it feels like this pick should be Nabers or Odunze, knowing Harbaugh’s physical brand of football and his desire to run the football, bringing in the draft’s top run blocker seems more and more likely, even if it’s here at No. 5.  At 6’6” and 342 pounds with 35 1/8-inch arms and 11-inch hands, Latham is a massive human being who can dominate the point of attack in both the run game and in pass protection.  If Latham gets his hands on the defender, it’s over as he has the grip strength to latch onto his man and then anchors to stifle any further movement.  From there, Latham has the power in his lower half to drive his man back off the ball and isn’t afraid to finish with authority, often throwing him to the ground.  We saw this on a 34-yard run play by Jase McClellan in the Rose Bowl against Michigan as he fired off the ball quickly, shot his hands in to Kris Jenkins and was able to manhandle him, throwing him to the outside, opening a hole for McClellan who took off downhill and went the distance.  Latham’s hand placement is consistent, firing low and under the pad level of the defender, which allows him to win with leverage.  He takes advantage of incredible power in his hands to strike the DE quickly off the ball, getting him off balance which allows him to easily turn and seal off the defender.  Latham is an easy knee bender with good lateral movement in pass protection.  He is quick to use his length to his advantage, firing his hands quickly into the chest of the defender to control the rep and the positioning of the hands under the pad level allow him to play with leverage where he can easily stand up the defender or mirror if needed, anchor to negate a bull rush or generate movement away from the pocket.  He is truly at his best when he does get his hands on the edge rusher early as he easily absorbs the impact from defenders without losing ground and is able to take on large NTs like Georgia’s Nazir Stackhouse and after winning with leverage, he’s able to stand the tackle up with ease.  Latham has surprising change of direction skills for his size and shows patience to pick up stunts.    He also doesn’t panic when he gets his hand slapped away as he’s quick to reset and get back in position.  Latham does need to watch his pad level because when it gets too high, he can lose leverage and can be driven back into the backfield.  Latham does overset at times on the outside and can be beaten with quick inside moves.  He also has a habit of stopping his feet and as the QB steps up or rolls out to buy time, the defender will beat him with a quick secondary move, and he’s forced to bend at the waist and lunge instead of attempting to recover.  Latham solidifies the OL and allows the Chargers to focus on skill position players on Days 2 and 3 of the draft.

6.    New York Giants – Malik Nabers, 6’0”, 200lbs, WR, LSU, Jr.
04/18/24 – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
03/29/24 – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
02/22/24 – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

The Giants have had a rather tumultuous last 12 years having finished in the bottom two of the NFC East in all but two seasons during that span.  In fact, the last time New York won the division was in 2011 when Eli Manning led the G-Men to a 21-17 victory over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.  Brian Daboll’s first season brought about hope as the Giants finished the season 9-7-1, its first winning record in seven years, and won the Wild Card game over Minnesota where Daniel Jones became the first QB to have 300+ passing yds, 2+ passing TD and 70+ rushing yards in a playoff game.  Jones easily had his best season in a Giants uniform and it seemed like Daboll had instilled a winning culture, earning NFL Coach of the Year in the process.  Jones signed a four-year $160 million contract, and it seemed like things were trending up for 2023, but then Jones suffered a neck injury that caused him to miss two games, then tore his ACL in week 12 that ended his season.  Now the futures of Jones and Daboll are up in the air, which makes this year’s draft a pivotal one.  Should the Giants invest in another QB with this pick given that they already owe $40 million to Jones this year?  The addition of Drew Lock to back Jones up, even at a one-year deal worth $5 million, is a move that has me thinking they’re expecting a healthy Jones can return to his 2022 form.  The Giants also gave up a league-high 85 sacks a season ago.  Former 1st Round pick Andrew Thomas is cemented as the team’s LT, but would they use this pick on an OT given that Jermaine Eluemunor was signed to push Evan Neal for playing time on the right side?  Eluemunor excelled in pass protection after starting at RT for the Raiders and that’s exactly what New York has been lacking.  While Joe Alt may be tempting, I think they’ll look elsewhere.  Then there’s the edge rush position, where Kayvon Thibodeaux racked up 11.5 sacks last season, but no returning edge rusher amassed more than 2.5 (Azeez Ojulari).  Dallas Turner and Jared Verse would look good in Giants blue, but adding Brian Burns to the fold ends that talk.  I expect the focus of this pick to be on a true No. 1 WR, something Jones hasn’t had in his five seasons in New York.  Last season, the Giants had six WRs with at least 10 receptions, but quantity doesn’t necessarily equal quality.  Plus, Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt are best suited as complementary pieces.  It’s expected that the top three QBs will come off the board first, leaving the top three wideouts likely to be next.  The Giants can sit here at No. 6 and take their pick between Rome Odunze and Malik Nabers who would both still be on the board.  I think they'll go Nabers, whose ability to be a three-level threat will remind you of Justin Jefferson.  Nabers was a 1,000-yard receiver in 2022, but his game really took off this past season after catching 89 passes for 1,569 yards, an average of 17.6 yards per receptions, and 14 TD.  He became just the second Tiger to record two 1,000-yard seasons (Josh Reed 2000-2001).  What’s evident is Nabers’ ability to close the distance on a defender vertically in the blink of an eye.  He’s quick off the ball, accelerates to full speed in a couple of steps and is on the toes of the DB in an instant.  He’s then presented with a three-way-go and does a tremendous job using a quick move at the stem to get the defender to widen and open the hips where he wants him, then plants and drives away without losing speed to run away from the defender.  Nabers’ threat to get vertical on any down allows him to push the DB up the field, then plant and stop on a dime then come back to the football, which allows him to create distance from the DB so he can still turn and make a play after the catch.  Nabers is a tremendous leaper to attack the ball over the defender and his tremendous body control allows him to contort his body to make a difficult catch.  Nabers can also use his body to his advantage to effectively box out the defender and allow him to then attack the ball in the air with the defender on his back, much like a basketball player is attacking a rebound.  Nabers ball skills are outstanding, showing off a large catch radius and uses late hands-on deep routes to keep a DB guessing on when the ball may arrive.  It’s also fun to watch Nabers with the ball in his hands as he’s so elusive in space showing off the ability to make defenders miss in a phone booth without losing speed.  And his 30 missed tackles forced were third among FBS WRs last year.  Nabers could easily be the top WR off the board in this year’s draft so for the Giants to land him here would be a major victory and would finally give Jones the weapon he needs.

7.    Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt, 6’9”, 321lbs, OT, Notre Dame, Jr.
04/18/24 – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
03/29/24 – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
02/22/24 – Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

Tennessee finished the 2023 season with the 28th-ranked offense and after a 6-11 season, Mike Vrabel was let go.  You can expect that new head man Brian Callahan, formerly the Cincinnati OC, will put a focus on building the offense around Will Levis, who has a firm grasp on the starting job now that Ryan Tannehill hit free agency and Mason Rudolph was signed as his backup.  The first order of business was addressing an anemic passing attack that lacked weapons at WR outside of DeAndre Hopkins.  While Nuk racked up another 1,000 yards in 2023, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was the only other wideout to finish with at least 300 yards receiving.  Treylon Burks has yet to live up to his 1st Round hype, which left many to wonder if one of the top WRs would be under consideration here.  However, the signing of Calvin Ridley to team with Hopkins gives Levis two legit weapons on the outside.  That means the focus will undoubtedly be on upgrading a porous OL from a year ago.  Tannehill, Levis and Malik Willis were sacked a combined 64 times, which was tied for fourth-most in the league.  The LT position was a major disappointment as Andre Dillard and Jaelyn Duncan combined for 21 of those sacks.  Dillard is gone after just one season in Tennessee and Duncan isn’t ready for a starting spot.  I think this pick is really a no-brainer as Alt is the clear-cut top OT in this year’s draft and would be a Week One starter at LT.  At 6’9” and 321 pounds, Alt has the size and his 34 ¼”-inch arms gives him the requisite length to lock down Levis’ blind side.  Alt came to Notre Dame as a TE and saw some time at the position as a true freshman before sliding over to LT where he started 35 games and became a two-time All-American and a finalist for the Outland Trophy and Lombardi Award this past season.  Alt uses his length to his advantage, extending his long arms into the defender early to control his man at the point of attack coming off the edge and to stifle the inside rush, driving him away from the pocket.  He also has very quick feet that allow him to stay square and mirror the DE.  Alt uses a quick stab with his right hand to the inside shoulder pad of the DE early in the rep to win and then when his opponent tries to counter, he keeps the active feet and resets his hands to get underneath the pad level and easily anchors or drives his man away.  You’ll also see him attack the outside shoulder as edge rusher try to run the arc and he easily extends and drive his man away from the pocket.  Alt is instinctive and shows tremendous patience on stunts and twists, using his length and lateral agility to pick up the defender looking to loop around.  Alt’s height can be a disadvantage as he has trouble keeping his pad level down.  As a result, he tends to play with a forward lean, which could make it difficult for him to hold up against a bull rush as he’ll lose his anchor and ability to play with leverage.  Alt also takes advantage of those quick feet in the running game, which allows him to drive his man down the field.  His hand placement is on point as he looks to shoot it underneath the pad level and then generates the movement with his lower leg drive.  Time and time again, you’ll see reps where Alt is driving his man 4-5 yards down the field before driving him into the ground.  Alt is also an athletic puller showing the ability to get out in front and locate the defender at the 2nd level, taking the proper angle to seal his man off to spring the RB for a big gain.  And just watch him block down and cave in the entire left side, paving the way for a big gain.  Alt will step in and be an immediate starter and teaming with Peter Skoronski on the left side would give the Titans a pair of athletic linemen and the addition of Lloyd Cushenberry to play center gives quite the upgrade to protect Levis.

 8.    Atlanta Falcons – Byron Murphy II, 6’1”, 297lbs, DT, Texas, Jr.
04/18/24 – Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
03/29/24 – Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
02/22/24 – JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan

Through seven games a season ago, Atlanta had a 4-3 record with wins over three eventual playoff teams in Green Bay, Houston and Tampa Bay.  However, the Falcons managed to just win three games the remainder of the year and after three straight seven-win seasons, Arthur Smith was let go.  New HC Raheem Morris brought in Zac Robinson, who spent the last five seasons on the Rams’ coaching staff with Sean McVay, as the team’s offensive coordinator.  Atlanta has spent three straight 1st Round picks in TE Kyle Pitts, No. 1 WR Drake London and dynamic RB Bijan Robinson.  Throw in a solid backup RB in Tyler Allgeier and a solid OL up front, this team appears to be just a strong QB away from having a top flight offense.  The signing of Kirk Cousins to a $180 million contract was exactly what they needed, which allowed them to use this pick to shore up other positions.  Atlanta lacked a productive WR to complement London, but adding Rondale Moore and Darnell Mooney in free agency also quiets any thought of targeting a wideout with this pick.  I believe this allows the Falcons to target the defensive side of the football.  Ryan Nielsen was brought in for the 2023 season and was able to make a remarkable turnaround in just one year as his defense finished 11th in the league in total yards given up.  Nielsen is in Jacksonville now and in steps Jimmy Lake, but the primary need on defense is still the same – getting consistent pressure on the QB.  The pass rush win rate last year was a mere 30.9% which was good for dead last in the NFL.  Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree finished with a combined 13.0 of the team’s 42 sacks, but neither is currently on the roster.  The edge rush trio of Arnold Ebiketie, Kaden Elliss and Lorenzo Carter combined for the same total.  Dallas Turner or Laiatu Latu could easily be the pick here.  But what about this thought – Raheem Morris opts for an interior pass rusher in Byron Murphy II with this pick.  ESPN’s Adam Schefter was the first to say that the Murphy II could be coming off the board much sooner than most think.  After all, Morris was the DC in LA with Aaron Donald generating a tremendous push up front as an interior pass rusher.  He also has Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata as a formidable DL duo up front.  There is also more depth at the edge rush position than along the interior with this year’s draft class.  Murphy II emerged as a top talent along the Texas interior as a junior, racking up 29 tackles, 8.5 for loss and 5.0 sacks, earning the Big XII DL of the Year in the process.  While T’Vondre Sweat was the space eating NT, Murphy II provided the explosiveness, with such quickness off the ball, excellent change of direction skills and a penchant for shooting gaps and getting early penetration.  What you love about Murphy II’s game is that quick first step, which allows him to put instant stress on the OL.  From there, he uses violent active hands to force his way through the gaps or will use a quick arm over to get straight downhill to the QB.  Murphy II uses his athleticism on twists, looping around and showing the straight-line speed to beat the OT and put pressure on the QB.  Murphy II also uses leverage and quickness to be effective against the run.  He does a great job shooting his hands inside, then shedding the block and utilizing lateral quickness to pursue the ball carrier down the line and is excellent in pursuit of the ball carrier.  Murphy II also looks to shoot inside off the hip of the pulling interior lineman, getting straight to the RB to blow up the play.  His athleticism was also on display at the Combine, where he ran an impressive 4.87 40 with a 1.69 10-yard split, while also producing a 33-inch vertical leap, both of which were near the top of all DT prospects.  He also repped out 28 reps of 225 pounds in the bench press.  That strength checks out when you watch the tape as he does a good job holding his ground while playing with leverage and then taking the proper angle to disrupt the run play.  That strength also allows him to attack and split double teams.  Murphy II’s lack of ideal size for the position can get him into trouble if he doesn’t win with quickness as he can get engulfed by larger OL.  But he can be a disruptive force against the run and an explosive interior pass rusher who would give ATL what could be a dominant DL up front which would then allow the Falcons to focus on the edge rush position on Day 2.

9.    Chicago Bears – Laiatu Latu, 6’5”, 267lbs, Edge, UCLA
04/18/24 – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
03/29/24 – Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State
02/22/24 – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

After solidifying the QB position at the top of the draft, which allows the Bears to address other needs with their second top-ten pick.  The OL has always been a point of conversation in Chicago and 2023 we again saw a porous line that gave up 50 sacks last year, which put them in a tie for 7th most in the league.  However, if we look at the OT position, Darnell Wright was last year’s 10th pick overall and is cemented as the starter on the right side while Pro Football Focus has LT Braxton Jones ranked as the Bears top OL last year.  The trade for Keenan Allen to team with DJ Moore eases the need for a receiving weapon this high in the draft, though could you imagine adding Rome Odunze or Malik Nabers to that WR room???  I feel like the focus could move to the defensive side of the ball here.  Chicago made a big-time midseason trade for Montez Sweat to address the pass rush and he delivered, racking up 6 sacks while also recording 23 pressures in just nine games with the Bears.  Adding a DE the caliber of Laiatu Latu to team with Sweat could be the focus with this pick.  I think Latu is ready to provide an instant impact at the next level and teaming with Sweat would give Chicago a formidable one-two punch coming off the edge.  I’m still tempted to go with Odunze, who would team with Moore, Allen, TE Cole Kmet and RB D’Andre Swift to give Caleb Williams a dynamic group of weapons.  I just think this pick should be a running mate for Sweat and Latu is the best pure pass rusher in this year’s draft.  A high school rugby player, Latu began his career at Washington where suffered a head and neck injury in November 2020.  In early 2021, he had to medically retire from the game due to the injury sustained.  However, he still had a desire to play the game and not only found an independent doctor who cleared him to play in the Fall of 2021 but was also cleared by the team doctors at UCLA and transferred in January 2022.  Latu has been wreaking havoc in opposing backfields ever since with 114 total pressures, including 26 sacks and another 17 hits in two seasons in Westwood.  His 26.2% pass rush win rate this past season was also tops among all prospects in this draft class.  The Consensus 1st Team All-American also won the Lombardi and Ted Hendricks Award this past season.  I think what sets Latu apart as a pure pass rusher is that he brings a level of maturity to his game in that he always has a plan of attack and will often OT’s for moves he intends to use later on in games.  Latu is tremendous with his hands, showing a variety of ways to attack the man in front of him.  You’ll see combinations of violent swipes, clubs, chops, rips and arm overs to win at the point of attack.  When Latu uses a quick slap and rip, he hooks that outside arm to propel himself around the corner and fires quickly to the QB.  Many have critiqued his game and said he’s not the bendiest edge rusher and while his hips aren’t those of some, he’s far from being stiff-hipped.  You see his ability to quickly flip his hips as he’s putting stress on the outside edge and as he’s attacking the OT’s hands so that when he wins, he’s able to quickly flatten out and get down the line to the QB.  He’s also able to dip his inside shoulder to get underneath the OT’s pad level to quickly get the corner.  There are nuances to his game that make him so effective as an edge rusher as you’ll see, his first move is to take his body away from the blocker to create separation, then use the hands to swipe the blocker’s hands away before attacking the edge.  You’ll also see Latu deliver with converting his speed to power with an effective bull rush by first getting his hands up and into the chest of the OT to drive him back into the backfield and once he has the OT off balance, the rep is over.  He also makes it difficult for RBs in pass protection as he gets into their blocks with a full head of steam and will either quickly dispose of them or drive them straight into the QB’s lap.  Latu isn’t always about getting up the field right off the snap.  Instead, he’ll add in a hesitation on the rush to throw the OT off and then goes to work with attacking the hands.  You’ll also see him sell the outside before crossing the face of the OT and clearing the blocker with violent hands to then shoot gaps along the interior of the line.  Latu is also quite effective against the run, looking to get his hands on the blocker early to then stack and shed to then chase the ball carrier and wrap up in space.  Latu does a good job setting the edge against the run and forcing the RB back inside.  You also have to love the relentless effort with which he plays on every snap as he never stops moving and doesn’t slow down as he continues his pursuit of the ball.  While Latu has an impressive burst off the ball and looks to win with his hands, his momentum is often lost if the OT is able to get his hands on him early on the outside.  While he can set the edge, he will struggle with his anchor and while he has an explosive burst, his speed all the way to the perimeter is not elite and isn’t always able to beat the offensive player to the corner.  Now Latu may not have the freakish athleticism of Dallas Turner or the raw power of Jared Verse, but he is the most polished edge rusher and should provide an immediate impact. 

10.   New York Jets – Rome Odunze, 6’3”, 212lbs, WR, Washington, Jr.   
04/18/24 – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
03/29/24 – Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State 
02/22/24 – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

There was so much promise heading into the season last year with future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers under center, but that optimism quickly dissipated after tearing his Achilles on the third snap of the season.  Former No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson proved he could not carry the team and the Jets, once thought to be the favorite in the AFC East, finished with a disappointing 7-10 record.  Rodgers is expected to be healthy to start the 2024 season and taking care of him was the top priority this offseason.  And boy did the Jets shore up the OL, signing OG John Simpson and OT’s Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses to line up with Alaijah Vera-Tucker and Joe Tippmann up front.  The attention the OL has gotten in free agency opens the draft up for the Jets as this pick doesn’t have to be used on an OT.  Signing three starters up front could mean GM Joe Douglas opts to select the best player available and that may very well be Brock Bowers.  Garrett Wilson is a weapon on the outside and adding Bowers would give Rodgers a legitimate weapon to occupy the middle of the field.  However, adding Mike Williams as a legit No. 2 weapon to complement Wilson furthers the flexibility for the Jets and I think this is where the board tips back in favor of the OL.  The moves at OT appears to be a one-year stopgap for the Jets up front and Douglas needs to think about the long-term success of the OL.  Look, Smith and Moses are only signed through the 2024 season.  I wouldn’t rule out JC Latham or Taliese Fuaga here as they could sit behind Moses before taking over at RT in 2025.  However, given Smith’s injury history having missed 37 games over the last four seasons, the smart play might be to select Olu Fashanu to be groomed by Smith as his eventual successor.  And given the fact that the Jets have experienced in-season injuries to AVT, Duane Brown and Mekhi Becton in recent seasons, it is imperative they have a backup plan should a similar fate happen to Smith in 2024.  I just don’t know that Douglas would make the moves up front and at WR to give them the flexibility to take the best player available only to pass on a unique weapon for Rodgers in favor of another OT.  It just feels like this is setting up to be Bowers.  Unless Rome Odunze happens to fall to No. 10.  I think the free agent additions have allowed the Jets to really take the best player available.  Adding Odunze would give Rodgers a plethora of weapons on the outside and with Williams only signed through this year, Odunze would be the long-term duo with Wilson in New York.  Odunze came to Washington as the Gatorade Player of the Year in the state of Nevada in football and was a track star having run 10.67 in the 100m and 21.25 in the 200m.  At UW, Odunze had a breakout redshirt sophomore season racking up 1,145 yards and 7 TD.  However, it was his junior season that solidified his status as a top wideout in this year’s draft.  Odunze hauled in 92 passes from Michael Penix Jr. for 1,640 yards, a single-season school record, and 13 TD, earning him All-America honors and was a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award.  He was a volume catcher, having hauled in at least five passes in all but one game in 2023 and tallied ten 100-yard games.  Odunze has tremendous size at 6’3” and 212 yards, but he carries that weight well on the outside as evidenced by his 4.45 40 time at the Combine.  He clearly has the speed to be a vertical threat and the size and physicality to be an alpha at the WR position.  It all starts at the line of scrimmage as he’s so good at creating separation with varied releases, sometimes a simple head and shoulder fake is all that’s needed, yet also has the necessary strength to quickly fight through the jam at the line.  Odunze has the ability to get on the corner’s toes in a hurry, which allows him to set up his man so well.  He has no problem continuing up the field to use his long speed to run away from the CB.  The threat to run by whoever is in front of him allows him to quickly sink his hips and work his way back to the QB on comeback routes.  He does a great job driving the corner off the ball, then uses an arm over at the top of the route as he plants and can either cut outside or across the middle of the field having used the swim to gain leverage against the defender.  Odunze’s suddenness is on display on his double moves as he can quickly stop and start to gain separation.  However, maybe the most impressive display of explosive route running was the 12-yard TD against Oregon State where he made such a wicked sell to the slant at the stem with a plant to the inside and a head-and-shoulder fake, so demonstrative with the move, then cuts it back to the outside and gets the separation needed as he then tracks it over his shoulder for the easy score.  Odunze is so good at adjusting to the ball in the air and has the body control to make the difficult catch while still allowing himself to make a play after the catch.  He’s great with contested catches as he uses his frame to shield the ball from defenders and has strong hands to pluck the ball out of the air away from his body even with a defender draped all over him.  And Odunze is able to elevate and attack the 50-50 balls with tremendous timing and leaping ability.  He has a knack for creating late separation to give some added space to haul the pass in down the field and his catch radius is quite impressive as well as he can easily reach across his body on ball thrown away from his frame.  Odunze is not as shifty after the catch as some of the other WRs in this draft, but he can make the first man miss and is strong after the catch as he’s not going down on first contact.  Odunze was a team captain for the Huskies and excelled in the classroom having earned Academic All-America honors.  And his competitive drive was on display at the Combine as the NFL Network reported that after everyone cleared the field following the workout, Odunze was disappointed in his 6.88-second three-cone drill time and was so determined to break 6.6 that he continued to run the drill five or six times even though he continued to clip the last cone.  Adding Odunze to team with Wilson and Williams would certainly bring a smile to Rodgers’ face as he’d have yet another weapon who can attack all three levels of the field.

11.   Minnesota Vikings – JJ McCarthy, 6’2”, 219lbs, QB, Michigan, Jr.
04/18/24 – JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan
03/29/24 – JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan
02/22/24 – Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama

The Vikings are in a state of transition with the likes of Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter, so you know that GM Kwesi Adofo Mensah and HC Kevin O’Connell have to ensure they get this draft right and adding a second 1st Round pick by trading for the 23rd overall selection from Houston is the first step.  The question is what will they do with these picks?  Is the goal for the Vikings to package the picks to move up to No. 3 to take Drake Maye?  Would New England be willing to make the deal with no guarantee they’d land a top QB?  Or is the plan to move up to either No. 4 or No. 5 to ensure they get the QB they covet outside the top three?  While there’s still a good chance that JJ McCarthy and Bo Nix would be available here, there are still enough QB-needy teams like the Giants, Broncos and Raiders who could be interested in moving up to land a QB, so the Vikings don’t want to miss out.  No deals have been done yet, so in this scenario, we’ll assume Minnesota is still able to draft McCarthy here.  It’s easy to look at the 2023 Michigan Wolverines and wonder why the offense wasn’t centered around McCarthy and consider that a red flag.  However, Jim Harbaugh has always taken a run-first power-running game approach with a complementary passing attack.  Plus, when given the chance within the offense, McCarthy rose to the occasion showing he can pick a defense apart whether it’s threading the needle between defenders within the pocket or extending with his legs and making a play off platform outside the pocket.  McCarthy is 27-1 as the Wolverines’ starting QB and has stepped up as a leader, especially over the last season as an outspoken supporter of Harbaugh during his suspensions.  The former four-star recruit ultimately beat out incumbent starter Cade McNamara taking the stating role in Week 2 and never relinquishing it McCarthy finished the year completing 64.6% of his passes for 2,719 yards and 22TD with just 5 Int. and led his team to the CFP semifinals only to get beat by TCU 51-45 in the Fiesta Bowl.  Expectations were high in 2023 and McCarthy repeatedly rose to the occasion, improving all of his stats in the process.  He threw for 2,991 yards while completing 72.1% of his passes and 22 TD to just 4 Int., a performance that not only allowed him to finish 10th in the Heisman voting but also helped lead Michigan to its first National Championship in 26 years.  McCarthy’s arm strength is good, not great, but he wins with anticipation and creativity as a playmaker.  McCarthy shows tremendous poise in the pocket, showing tremendous patience to wait for defenders to commit and then putting the pass where only his receiver can make a play.  His pocket presence allows him to climb the pocket to avoid the rush or sidestep pressure to give him extra time to find an open man down the field.  McCarthy’s ability to manipulate the pocket and deliver an accurate ball has to get teams excited at the next level.  He does a good job delivering the ball just as the receiver is getting out of his break and puts the ball where only his man can make a play on the ball. McCarthy has a knack for throwing to a spot where the WR will be, throwing his man open in the process.  His ability to create is apparent whenever you turn on the film.  You see his ability to escape pressure, keep his eyes down the field while on the move to buy time then is able to get his hips around and delivers the ball with enough velocity to thread the needle.  McCarthy is also an underrated athlete, which was definitely on display at the Combine.  While he didn’t run the 40, McCarthy posted a 4.23-second short shuttle, which was .08 seconds faster than speedy WR Troy Franklin, and a 6.82 three-cone drill, which would have tied Blake Corum for second-fastest among RBs.  McCarthy has the speed to outrun defenders to the outside and when the middle of the defense opens up, he’s not afraid to get downhill in a hurry, showing impressive acceleration to pick up yards in bunches.  He even led Big 10 QB with over 40 rushes for 1st down this past season.  I think what is frustrating about McCarthy is his inconsistent play as you see flashes of brilliance followed by plays that make you wonder if that brilliance can be sustained.  McCarthy does struggle with ball placement at times, putting the pass either behind or over the head of the receiver and not on the frame of the WR.  And as a creator, there are times he tries to do too much, forcing passes into traffic or will stare down his man and try to fit it in without regard for the coverage.  McCarthy has all the tools to excel at the next level.  Give him time with some NFL coaching and he could be the sleeper in this QB draft class.  Keep in mind, McCarthy just turned 21 on January 20th, so he has plenty of time to sit and grow into the role if needed.  I fully expect Sam Darnold to begin the year as the starter but wouldn’t be shocked if it’s McCarthy under center by season’s end.

12.   Denver Broncos – Dallas Turner, 6’3”, 247lbs, Edge, Alabama, Jr.
04/18/24 – Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA
03/29/24 – Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA
02/22/24 – Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA

The Russell Wilson era in Denver really never got going and it was clear after Sean Payton took control of the franchise that his days were numbered in a Broncos uniform.  Wilson’s release and eventual signing with Pittsburgh means only two QBs, Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci, remain on the roster.  While there are veteran QBs like Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, Joshua Dobbs and Zach Wilson available in free agency, none would move the needle much and would only be a bridge until a young QB is able to take the reins.  There is some speculation that maybe Denver would tank in 2024 so they could be in line to select in-state product Shedeur Sanders with the top pick in next year’s draft.  That just seems to go against the premise that Sean Payton needs to win now.  The Broncos haven’t been to the playoffs since they won Super Bowl 50 in 2015.  Since then, they’ve had just one winning season and are now on their fifth head coach.  And with an organization that is lacking patience, no HC has lasted longer than two years during that span, why would they tank for Shedeur?    Could Payton really take a chance on a second tier QB in this draft?  I can’t see that happening at No. 12.    Looking up front defensively, Zach Allen finished with his second-straight five-sack season in his first year in Denver.  However, the Broncos are missing a piece on the other side as Malcolm Roach was signed as a free agent but is more of a depth piece and is not known to put pressure on the QB.  Plus, Denver struggled against the run, finishing dead last in the league giving up 5 yards per carry, per Pro Football Focus.  Texas DT Byron Murphy II should get a serious look here.  On the back end of the defense, Patrick Surtain II went to his second Pro Bowl and nickel Ja’Quan McMillian is a stud, but can the trio of Riley Moss, Damarri Mathis and PJ Locke produce another outside corner worthy of a starting spot?  I think with Denver in a division where they have to play Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert twice a year, they have to have a pair of lockdown corners and I think Terrion Arnold makes a lot of sense as he would pair well with fellow Alabama alum Surtain II.  The pass rush doesn’t have a star, yet Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto combined for 16.5 sacks and another 33 hits.    Adding a key piece to the pass rush is what Denver needs after finishing 21st in the league with 42 sacks.  Dallas Turner was clearly the most dynamic edge rusher at the Combine after posting a blistering 4.46 40 and would bring much-needed explosiveness to the Broncos.  Turner’s career at Alabama got off to a hot start in 2021 as a highly touted five-star recruit.  He finished his freshman season with 10 TFL and 8.5 sacks, including 4.0 in a three-game span at the end of the season in the SEC Championship and the CFP playoffs.  He was a running mate for Will Anderson Jr. on his legendary 17.5-sack season and that partnership carried over to 2022 and Turner made the most of it, putting together a five-game stretch with 6.5 TFL, 4 sacks and a defensive TD.  However, plenty of questions came out before the 2023 season asking whether Turner could be as productive without Anderson Jr. on the other side.  Turner was able to silence all doubters with 10.0 sacks, 31 hurries and a 20.2% pass rush win rate.  Turner’s game is speed as he’s so quick off the ball and has tremendous speed to run the arc in a hurry to put early pressure on the QB.  He has very quick hands to win early on inside moves with a quick rip of the hands as he crosses the face of the OT and shoots through the B gap to pressure the QB.  Turner has good power in his hands to deliver a powerful punch, then uses speed to power with a pretty lethal long arm that he uses to drive OT’s back into the backfield before using his hands to dispose of the OT and get to the QB.  He’s so good at getting his hands into the body of the OT and uses his 34 3/8-inch arms to keep the OT at a distance, at which point he has the OT off balance and can win with either speed or power.  Turner does a good job setting up the OT on his inside rushes by selling the move to the outside before planting, ripping under the OT then using speed to power to push his way by and has that closing burst to be on the QB in a hurry.  He also has a pretty tight spin move as a counter, which is incredibly effective and uses it as he gets the OT leaning in one direction.  You have to love Turner’s relentlessness in pursuit of the football, whether it’s as a pass rusher or against the run.  You’ll see him use his hands to get off blocks, then move laterally down the sideline before turning and chasing the ball carrier all the way to the sideline before dropping him in the open field.  Turner has also shown improvement in coverage as you can tell he studies film as he’ll read what the offense is trying to do with a route and will look to drive on the football in a hurry, often arriving just as the ball does to make a big play in the open field.  One area Turner absolutely has to work on is his ability to take on blocks as he currently lacks the strength to work off blocks when he’s lost the rep and as a result can be neutralized or even driven completely out of the play.  I also went back and looked at my notes and Turner looks to win with speed to power to take advantage of his length, but he has just average play strength, which means he’ll have to use his speed early on to make plays behind the line of scrimmage.  Turner is a tremendous athlete who is still developing all the skills necessary to be a top-flight pass rusher at the next level, which is a scary proposition.  While there may be bigger needs here for the Broncos, but Denver shouldn’t overthink this pick.  Bring in Turner, coach him up and allow him to use his physical gifts to be an absolute menace on the edge.

13.   Las Vegas Raiders – Michael Penix Jr., 6’2”, 216lbs, QB, Washington
04/18/24 – Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
03/29/24 – Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
02/22/24 – Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

New Raider GM Tom Telesco made the right call by hiring interim HC Antonio Pierce to the full-time gig as his personality and coaching style are the perfect fit for the Silver and Black.  Finding a long-term option at the QB position is a key need after Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t work out and Aidan O’Connell is best suited as a backup and spot starter.  The franchise brought in Gardner Minshew who helped mentor Anthony Richardson in Indy last season, so it’s possible we could see Vegas move up in the draft to land a QB they like.  Could it be Jayden Daniels, who Pierce knows well from their time together at Arizona State?  There are other needs on the roster that are also pressing, so the more likely route is the Raiders look to either trade back into Round One to land Michael Penix Jr. or opt to sit and select Spencer Rattler on Day Two of the draft.  DT was seen as a huge need, but the signing of Christian Wilkins was a big-time get in free agency and allows them to pivot and look at two other positions with this pick.  One of those is at OT as starting RT Jermaine Eluemunor is no longer on the roster and LT Kolten Miller battled injuries during the season.  Thayer Munford showed off his ability to fill in at both positions, but I think his best position may still inside at OG and by adding an OT like JC Latham or Taliese Fuaga to man the RT spot, which would upgrade multiple positions up front.  I think the Raiders will be eyeing both Latham and Fuaga with this pick and I think it would come down to who is the better fit in Luke Getsy’s offense.  Per Pro Football Focus, Getsy’s offense last season finished second in rushing attempts (534), rushing yards (2,399) and yards per game (141.1) so you know the ground game will be a focal point of the offense.  Latham is the most dominant run blocker in the draft, but Fuaga is the better pass protector and could benefit from learning from Getsy.  The other is at CB where Amik Robertson signed in Detroit and while Jack Jones and Nate Hobbs show promise and Jakorian Bennett is coming along, they lack a true CB1.  Does it make sense to go after Terrion Arnold or Quinyon Mitchell here?  Or would they go the veteran route to lead the youngsters?  I think the same argument made for Denver can be made here with the Raiders as they need a solid group of corners to battle the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert twice a year.  Let’s think about this one.  The Raider QB combo of Garoppolo and rookie O’Connell finished 23rd in the league in passing yards and were top 5 in Int. thrown.  Garoppolo has moved on in free agency and in steps Gardner Minshew who had a 7-6 record in 2022 as the bridge QB for Anthony Richardson in Indy.  It appears as though Pierce and Telesco are hoping he can provide that same veteran leadership to a rookie QB this year.  It was once seen as a considerable reach for Penix Jr. here at 13 overall and that the Raiders would trade back into Round One instead.  However, there are plenty of QB-needy teams and it’s clear Vegas is looking for a QB in this year’s draft, so would they really take the chance of having another team swoop in and take Penix Jr.?  I just don’t see it happening anymore.  I expect Telesco and Pierce to land Penix Jr., then focus on OT and CB on Day 2 of the draft.  Penix Jr. has the arm talent to be considered among the top QBs in this year’s draft class had it not been for his injury history.  While at Indiana, Penix Jr. suffered season-ending injuries in each of his four years there, two ACL tears and two AC joint injuries.  He’s managed to stay healthy in his two years at UW and in doing so led the country in passing yards in 2022 and then led the Huskies to the National Championship against Michigan after finishing as the runner-up for the Heisman Trophy.  And I think his goal during his Pro Day was to show everyone the type of athlete he is and that the ACL injuries are behind him.  Penix Jr ran a sub-4.6 40 while also showing off a 36 ½-inch vertical leap.  It’s interesting to see that type of athleticism after watching tape and seeing a very tight QB who struggled to deliver an accurate ball while on the move where suddenly the big arm and pinpoint accuracy tends to disappear.  It’s actually a good sign for QB-needy teams.  Speaking of the arm, Penix Jr. has an effortless delivery with the ability to throw the football 50+ yards to the wide side outside the numbers on a line and also drop it into the bucket right over the shoulder of the WR so he doesn’t have to break stride.  That is where Penix Jr. is at his best.  Let him drop back to pass and get his feet set, then he’s throwing to a spot and leading the WR to daylight.  He does a good job recognizing pressure pre-snap and makes the right calls at the line to keep himself clean.  It’s impressive to watch Penix Jr. manipulate the pocket, sliding so easily to avoid the rush to buy time, then resets his feet and delivers a strike.  Penix Jr. is so tough to sack, showing an impressive ability to not only avoid the rush, but get rid of the football early; in fact, he was sacked just 31 times on 1,759 career dropbacks per Pro Football Focus.  He can put added velocity on the ball to fit the pass into tight windows, though he does need to work on timing on throws over the middle so that there aren’t as many contested catches.  Penix Jr. also has enormous 10 1/2 -inch hands that allow him to easily handle the football without fear of losing it in traffic.  He does struggle at times with touch as his passes tend to be more of one speed than varying tempo.  Penix Jr. also struggled down the stretch when teams put early pressure on him and forced him off his spot.  That led to a much lower completion percentage when he was outside the pocket.  When he’s asked to speed up the process, his footwork can get a little sloppy and aren’t always in sync with the rest of his body, which means he’s relying on that arm to make all the throws instead of having that base planted under him.  That is concerning as he played from the shotgun at Washington and will have to show he can play from under center consistently.  Then there’s the age factor as Penix Jr. is one of the older prospects at the position; he’ll be 24 when the season begins.  I thin Penix Jr. can learn from Minshew and get comfortable with the speed of the NFL game.  The biggest key will be his health because it’s just hard to look past the injury history.    Penix Jr. will need to prove his body can hold up to the rigors of a lengthy NFL season and he can stay healthy.  That will be the key to his success in the league above anything else.

14.   New Orleans Saints – Olu Fashanu, 6’6”, 312lbs, OT, Penn State, Jr.
04/18/24 – Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
03/29/24 – JC Latham, OT, Alabama
02/22/24 – Jared Verse. Edge, Florida State

The Saints finished the 2023 season with a 9-8 record which tied Tampa Bay, but the Bucs won the tiebreaker and made it to the playoffs while the Saints were left to watch at home for the third straight season after four straight NFC South titles.  Mickey Loomis and Dennis Allen are on the hot seat and there are some key areas of need that need to be filled.  DE has been a position to watch, especially considering Cameron Jordan and Payton Turner battled injuries throughout the season.  Turner and Isaiah Foskey failed to record a single sack on the year either.  New Orleans finished the year in the bottom third of the league with just 35 sacks despite Carl Granderson’s career season with 8.5 sacks.  Laiatu Latu seemed like the pick here until Chase Young was signed to provide much-needed depth to the position.  I think that addition allows the Saints to focus this pick on the offensive side of the ball.  Chris Olave had his first 1,000-yard season of his career in 2023, but Michael Thomas managed to play in just 10 games and was released in the offseason.  While Cedrick Wilson was signed to team with Rashid Shaheed and AT Perry to be complementary WRs to Olave, that may not move the needle quite like LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr., a tall, athletic vertical threat with tremendous speed.  Then there’s the offensive line, where time may be running out on LT Trevor Penning, who may be best suited inside after struggles to this point in his career, OG Andrus Peat is a free agent and RT Ryan Ramczyk has been battling chronic knee issues.  I’m not sure about Peat’s future in New Orleans, but Sports Illustrated reported Ramczyk had a procedure on his knee that should have him ready to go for training camp.  Penning, on the other hand, struggled mightily at the LT position and looks more and more like a 1st Round bust.  He was benched in week 7 and managed just 11 snaps the rest of the season per Pro Football Focus.  Penning is under contract through 2025, but can the Saints really go back to him after sitting him midseason?  Fashanu is an ultra-athletic LT with tremendous length who could have been a 1st Round pick had he declared a season ago.  Fashanu is seen as a top tier pass protector having given up 0 sacks and just 17 total pressures in 689 true pass sets in his three-year career at Penn State, per Pro Football Focus.  He’s an easy mover in pass protection using short choppy steps in his kick slide and is able to open up and keep the DE square to steer him away from the pocket.  Despite having the smallest hands of any OL at the draft (8 ½ inches), Fashanu has tremendous grip strength and shows an uncanny ability to shoot his hands in and lock out his arms to control his man, often not allowing the defender to elevate quickly to knock down a pass or get a good counter move in.  His ability to drop his weight and anchor against the powerful bull rush is impressive as he maintains leverage and is able to effectively stand up his man and stall out the rush.  Fashanu does get caught lunging and leaning at times, but this can be cleaned up with coaching at the next level.  He has good awareness to read stunts and blitzes and can quickly change directions to easily pick up the defender trying to attack off the edge.  If he does get himself in trouble, he has impressive agility to recover and uses quick hands to reset under the defender’s pad level.  Fashanu is a better pass protector than a run blocker at this stage in his career but has continued to get better in this area.  His athleticism is apparent with the way he’s able to quickly flip his hips to seal off the edge and when he’s either pulling around or climbing to the second level as a lead blocker.  You see him effectively extend his long arms to bench press his man and keeps his feet moving to be a solid drive blocker.  There is still room to get bigger and stronger and needs to continue to improve his footwork in the ground game as he can struggle to sustain his blocks.  Fashanu has tremendous athleticism but does have some holes in his game that need to be addressed and with Penning and Ramczyk likely starting the year as the Saints’ starters at OT, he could continue his development before eventually taking over for Penning.

15.   Indianapolis Colts – Brock Bowers, 6’3”, 241lbs, TE, Georgia Jr.
04/18/24 - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
03/29/24 – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
02/22/24 – Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

Indy was hoping the 2023 season would be a key development year for 1st Round pick Anthony Richardson.  However, after four games, Richardson was having season-ending shoulder surgery.  Gardner Minshew filled in admirably and led the Colts to a 9-8 record but fell short of a playoff berth.  GM Chris Ballard headed into this offseason wanting to ensure Richardson is set up for success.  Michael Pittman Jr. was re-signed to a three-year $70 million deal to remain WR1, while Josh Downs and Alec Pierce proved to be a solid supporting cast.  Brian Thomas Jr. could be enticing to round out the receiving corps.  Then there’s the TE position, where 2022 3rd Round pick Jelani Woods was expected to build upon a solid rookie campaign, but never saw the field during the regular season due to a hamstring injury.  Undersized TE Kylan Granson hauled in 30 passes in his stead, but the trio of Mo-Alie Cox, Will Mallory and Andrew Ogletree have managed just 40 receptions between them.  How confident is Ballard that Woods will be back to health in 2024?  Is Woods really a starting-caliber TE?  This is where I think Brock Bowers’ floor is in this draft and giving Richardson a unique target in the passing game.  Defensively, the Colts are without a true CB1.  The team finished 15 picks last year, but outside of NB Kenny Moore’s 3 Int., only 2 others were made by CBs.  Ballard would be ecstatic if Quinyon Mitchell falls to them as his ceiling is No. 8 to Atlanta.  However, adding such a unique weapon like Bowers to a receiving corps that also has Pittman Jr., Downs and Pierce would be proof that Ballard is setting Richardson up for success in what Indy is hoping will be his first full season as the team’s starting QB.  Despite measuring in at 6’3” and 241 pounds, Bowers was the most dominant TE we’ve seen in the FBS in quite some time.  He led the Bulldogs in receiving in each of his three years in Athens, was a three-time All-American and is the only two-time winner of the John Mackey Award given to the top TE since the award’s inception in 2000.  As a true freshman in 2021, Bowers led all TEs with 522 receiving yards and 13 TD, which is a UGA record for a season.  His most dominant season was in 2022 as according to Pro Football Focus, he led all FBS TE in receiving yards with 942, 479 yards after catch and 274 receiving yards after contact.  His 62 receptions are the second-highest single season total in UGA history, while the 942 receiving yards lands him at No. 5.  In 2023, despite missing four games due to an ankle injury, PFF noted Bowers was again able to lead FBS TE in 486 yards after catch and 249 yards after contact while also amassing 717 receiving yards.  Just turn on the film and you quickly see just how dynamic an athlete he is.  Bowers presents mismatches with his ability to run by LBs and is too strong for DBs.  He closes the gap on defenders with such quick acceleration and is able to make cuts down the field without losing speed.  Bowers is also savvy against the zone, finding the voids and throttling down to give the QB a proper throwing lane.  He’s a hands catcher and extends for the ball to pluck it out of the air away from his body at virtually any angle, easily hauling in passes over his head or making the fingertip catch off the shoestrings.  You see exceptional body control with the ability to adjust to poorly thrown balls, repeatedly hauling in passes thrown behind him, sometimes with only one hand.  Bowers is also dynamic after the catch.  He can make the first man miss and then use the quick acceleration to run away from the defender.  You’ll see the body control and contact balance to absorb hits, run through tackles and otherwise keep his footing to continue to work for extra yards.  I think maybe the biggest area of Bowers’ game that still needs work is his blocking, though it’s not as bad as some say.  He does a good job quickly shooting his hands inside off the line but will often get overpowered as he’s unable to hold the point.  Bowers can climb to the second level to seal off a defender as a lead blocker in the running game and can spring WRs on the outside as a downfield blocker in the passing game.  I think his base and strength need to improve to be an effective inline blocker.  Bowers could still be a top 10 pick, but this pick feels like a no-brainer for Ballard if he falls.

16.   Seattle Seahawks – Troy Fautanu, 6’4”, 317lbs, OT/OG, Washington, Jr.
04/18/24 – Troy Fautanu, OT/OG, Washington
03/29/24 – Troy Fautanu, OT/OG, Washington
02/22/24 – Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas

It’s the end of an era in Seattle as the team has moved on from Pete Carroll, who leaves the Seahawks with a record of 137-89-1 and led the franchise to their only Super Bowl win.  In steps former Baltimore Ravens DC Mike MacDonald, whose defensive philosophy fits the personnel well.  Seattle finished 31st in the league in rushing yards a season ago and while Leonard Williams was re-signed, he, Jarran Reed and Johnathan Hankins will all be 30 years of age or older at the start of the season, so an infusion of youth could be in order, meaning Byron Murphy II would make a lot of sense here.  MacDonald’s a defensive-minded HC and adding a three-technique who can get after the passer from the interior would be exactly what he wants up front.  Offensively, the Seahawks’ running game finished 28th in the league in rushing but were just 71 yards away from last and were beaten up with underwhelming play along the interior of the OL while RT Abraham Lucas battled a knee injury and was shut down for 11 games as a result.  SB Nation reported Lucas had knee surgery this offseason and the hope is that he’ll be ready to go and while OG Tremayne Anchrum was signed as a free agent, adding another interior lineman is a must.  Adding George Fant as insurance makes you wonder about Lucas’ health.  It might still behoove Seattle to take a look at in-state product Troy Fautanu, especially considering new OC Ryan Grubb coached Fautanu at Washington.  If anyone knows the mauling and athletic combo Fautanu provides, it’s Grubb.  Fautanu could start immediately at OG like Alaijah Vera-Tucker did with the Jets and has the athleticism to kick outside to OT as the long-term answer should Lucas’ long-term health presents a problem.  Fautanu started 31 games for the Dawgs 29 at LT and 2 at LG.  His consistent play as a sophomore in 2022 earned him 1st Team All-Pac 12 honors after not giving up a sack on 608 snaps in pass pro and surrendered just 14 pressures all year, though he did lead the team up front with 8 penalties, per Pro Football Focus.  In 2023, Fautanu was a 3rd Team All-American, a 1st Team Al-Pac 12 selection for a second consecutive year and led the Huskies’ OL to win the prestigious Joe Moore Award given to the top OL in the country.  Fautanu did give up 2 sacks and 18 total pressures on 623 pass snaps but reduced his penalty total to 6.  Fautanu’s athleticism is on display with his ability to vary his sets in pass protection, whether it’s at 45 degrees, a vertical set or with a quick hop on the outside to meet the defender.  His kick slide is smooth with quick feet while maintaining a low pad level, which allows him to easily move with edge rushers on the outside.  Despite having 34 ½-inch arms, plenty long enough to play OT, he struggles with longer edge rushers who are able to get their hands on him early which allows the defender to overpower him and drive him back at the point of attack.  That said, Fautanu wins often because of his hands.  He stays busy with very active hands to continue to work to keep his man in front of him, looking to strike the inside shoulder of the defender to slow the rush and control him on the edge.  His hand placement can be inconsistent at times, which means he can’t always sustain his blocks, but when Fautanu is balanced and is able to shoot his hands inside on the defender, he can sink his hips and anchor to stifle a bull rush.  Fautanu’s lateral agility is on display when working to pick up inside rushes, showing the ability to plant and quickly power step to the inside to stifle the rush.  He does a good job reading and picking up stunts, using the athleticism to get out and pick up the defender looping around.  Grubb also liked to use Fautanu as a lead blocker on screens, showing tremendous athleticism climbing to the second level on the perimeter to seal off LBs and DBs to allow the WR to get down the field.  That athleticism is also on display in the running game as he comes across the formation and is able to seal off the LB to the outside to allow the RB to run right off his hip.  Fautanu does a great job on trap blocks, grabbing the DE and shoving them straight to the ground.  He repeatedly fired his hands under the pad level at the arm pit to drive the DE off the ball and pin him to the inside.  Fautanu does get himself in trouble in the run game when he stops his feet and winds up bending at the waist and lunging.  And while he’s athletic on the move, he can get caught leaning too far over his toes, which can get him off balance and susceptible to getting beat to the inside.  I think Grubb would be elated to land Fautanu at this point in the draft as he has the makings of a Pro Bowler early in his career and could even step outside in a pinch.

17.   Jacksonville Jaguars – Quinyon Mitchell, 6’0”, 195lbs, CB, Toledo
04/18/24 – Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
03/29/24 – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
02/22/24 – Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

Going into this past season, the future looked bright following a promising 2022 campaign that not only saw the Jags win the AFC South for the first time since 2017 and win a playoff game, but also went toe to toe with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs before losing 27-20.  However, Jacksonville finished the year with a disappointing 9-8 and missed out on the playoffs, which meant you had to expect the sideline would look very different in 2023.  Offensively, the team filled a void at the pivot with the signing of Mitch Morse, but replacing leading receiver Calvin Ridley who signed with Titans should be a priority.  Calvin Ridley and TE Evan Engram combined for 45% of the receptions and yards for the Jags a season ago while also accounting for 55% of the TD production.  Christian Kirk battled injuries and only played in 13 games, but he and RB Travis Etienne combined for another 28% of the receiving production.  Zay Jones was the only other player with at least 20 receptions and 300 receiving yards.  Production at the WR has to improve, especially with Ridley off to Tennessee in free agency.  Gabe Davis and Devin Duvernay were signed to team with Parker Washington as part of the supporting cast.  However, the group feels incomplete.  Brian Thomas Jr.’s speed and length make him a perfect fit and could become a favorite target of Trevor Lawrence.  Defensively, Mike Caldwell is out, and Ryan Nielsen is in as Jags’ DC after a remarkable turnaround of the Falcons defense in his one season in Atlanta.  Nielsen inherits a defense that was 23rd in the league in yards given up, but it’s clear Doug Pedersen, Nielsen and Co. targeted the defensive side of the ball in free agency.  The Jaguars used the franchise tag on Josh Allen to keep their pass rusher in Jacksonville and Arik Armstead was a big signing up front after he became a cap casualty in San Francisco and would fill a similar role that Calais Campbell played for Nielsen in Atlanta.  CB Ronald Darby and safety Darnell Savage will be expected to play key roles in the secondary.  Darby replaces the departed Darious Williams opposite Tyson Campbell, who is in the final year of his rookie contract and is coming off a down year last season.  Nielsen’s defense will feature coverage that is predominantly man to man, so adding depth will be a focus in the draft and while Darby has started 95 of 105 career games, he’s not a No. 1 corner.  That’s why I think Nielsen will be pounding the table to use this pick on a corner, especially if CB1 happens to fall this far.  Quinyon Mitchell would give the Jags a true CB1 to pair with Darby, which would also ease the pressure a bit on Campbell as he looks to rebound in 2024.  Mitchell has dominated on the outside in his four seasons at Toledo, finishing with 6 Int., two of which were returned for TD in 2022, and racked up an impressive 45 pass breakups while also tallying 123 tackles and 7.5 TFL, earning him 1st Team All-MAC honors twice and was a 2nd Team All-American in 2023.  Mitchell was primarily used in off man and zone coverage with the Rockets, so the question was whether he could play press man.  He was able to silence any doubters after showcasing the ability to play up on the line against some of the nation’s top WRs at the Senior Bowl, showing the ability to get physical off the line, fluid hips to turn and run with the WR and seemed to always be right in the receiver’s hip pocket.  Mitchell furthered his case to be CB1 in this year’s draft class by showing out at the Combine.  His 4.33 40 time tied him for third fastest among all Combine invites.  He also showed off an explosive lower body with a 38-inch vertical leap.  His 20 reps at 225 pounds in the bench press topped the CB group and was tied for 2nd among all DBs.  The Combine performance checked all the boxes with what the film shows – he’s fast, explosive and has the strength and power to jam the WR and reroute.  It’s clear that Mitchell spends a lot of time studying film as he trusts what he sees which allows him to play fast.  He’s so quick to drive on the ball and close in a hurry.  In off coverage, Mitchell will read the QB eyes and the WR’s route in front of him, remains patient and then as the QB begins to deliver the ball, drives downhill with tremendous speed and arrives to make a play on the ball without interfering with the WR.  On stop routes, you’ll see him shading to the outside off the snap off the ball, reads the WR and as soon as he turns toward the QB, you see the explosiveness to trigger downhill and make a break to get a hand in and knock the pass away.  Mitchell is also tremendous on throws down the field, showing his ability to stay right on the WR’s inside hip in phase and as the ball is delivered, he gets his head around to locate the ball, shortens the distance to squeeze the WR and is then able to elevate and attack the ball in midair.  In the MAC Championship against Miami, Ohio, Mitchell was up on the line with WR Gage Larvidan, was able to flip his hips to turn and run deep on a post, remained in phase and was patient while in perfect position to make a play, timed his jump and elevated to punch the ball away from the WR, making it look so easy down the field by reaching with his outside arm across the WR to easily punch it away.  Mitchell also isn’t afraid to mix it up in run support, showing good physicality and wrap-up ability in the open field.  I think Mitchell’s production and athletic profile are the makings of a true lockdown corner.

18.   Cincinnati Bengals – Brian Thomas Jr., 6’3”, 209lbs, WR, LSU, Jr.
04/18/24 – Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
03/29/24 – Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
02/22/24 – JC Latham, OT, Alabama

After two straight AFC North titles including a trip to the Super Bowl in 2021, Cincinnati had a disappointing 2023 season that saw the Bengals finish last in the division.  To make matters worse, Joe Burrow only played in ten games and had to have surgery on a torn ligament in his throwing wrist.  The wrist is the second season-ending injury in Burrow’s four seasons in the league, so protecting their franchise QB had to be a top priority entering the offseason.  The signing of Trent Brown to a one-year deal to team with Orlando Brown Jr. gives Cincy a pair of mammoth OTs tasked with keeping Burrow upright in 2024, but that shouldn’t keep the Bengals from addressing the OT position.  While Taliese Fuaga or Amarius Mims could be the target here, adding Brown could mean the focus shifts to the Bengals’ second priority which is seen as at WR.  Ja’Marr Chase is Burrow’s go-to target, but Tyler Boyd isn’t expected back while Tee Higgins has asked for a trade even after the franchise tag was used on him, though he has since come out and said he has a newfound love and respect for Cincinnati.  Cincy should be in win-now mode, so it may behoove the Bengals to keep Higgins for the 2024 season.  The Bengals finished in the bottom third in the league against the run and also had virtually no interior pass rush help outside of BJ Hill, who finished with 4.5 sacks.  Sheldon Rankins was brought in to replace the departed DJ Reader, but there isn’t any depth and Rankins is just signed for two years, so it feels like a short-term band-aid, so looking long term along the interior makes a lot of sense as well and Byron Murphy II would be a perfect fit if he somehow were to drop, which is unlikely, but Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton wouldn’t be a bad consolation.  I just think Thomas Jr.’s ability to stretch defenses vertically would open up plays for Chase, much like what we saw with Malik Nabers at LSU.  Thomas Jr. was able to line up both on the outside and in the slot for LSU and in both positions, he used his vertical speed to get on the toes of the corner in a hurry and shows he can quickly separatee from defenders down the field.  Thomas Jr. is exceptional tracking the football down the field with repeated reps where he hauled in passes right over his shoulder.  His suddenness off the ball allows him to quickly separate on quick throws over the middle and his ability to make the catch look easy allows him to make a play after the catch without losing speed.  Thomas Jr. does a tremendous job creating late separation on fades, leaping away from the corner at the last moment to give space and high point the pass over the corner and shows the body control to keep his feet in bounds while securing and maintaining the catch to the ground.  He does a good job sinking his hips to drive out of his cuts and can also throttle down and find the soft spot in zones.  Thomas Jr. can run struggle with concentration drops as he’ll look up the field before securing the catch.  And while he can make the first man miss after the catch, he’s not overly elusive in the open field.

19.   Los Angeles Rams – Jared Verse, 6’4”, 254lbs, Edge, Florida State
04/18/24 – Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State
03/29/24 – Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
02/22/24 – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

2023 was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Rams, but Sean McVay turned in maybe his best season as head coach and led the Rams to a playoff berth.  Up front offensively, LA’s OL gave up the 6th fewest sacks with just 34 and while Alaric Jackson was reliable at LT and Rob Havenstein stepped up as a leader on the right side, shoring up the interior of the OL had to be a priority going into the offseason.  Keeping Kevin Dotson and signing free agent Jonah Jackson takes care of the OG spots, which then allows Steve Avila to slide over to the pivot, a position he played while at TCU.  I believe this pick will be used on the defensive side of the ball where LA has to improve.  The Ram pass defense ranked in the bottom third in the league in most categories, so you have to expect it will get attention this offseason.  At corner, Ahkello Witherspoon led the Rams in total passes defended with 17, including a team-high 3 Int., but he’s a free agent and could be elsewhere in 2024.  Darious Williams was signed for his second stint with the Rams, but he should be your CB2.  Tre’Davious White was brought in to be the team’s CB1, but given his injury history, can he stay healthy?  Obviously, Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold are the most coveted of the corner prospects and would give LA a future CB1, but with those two off the board, could the long and speedy Nate Wiggins with his 4.28 40 garner consideration here?  Of course, the biggest move was the retirement of Aaron Donald, who leaves a major hole up front defensively for the Rams.  Rookie Kobie Turner looks like he’s the next interior pass rusher and will carry the torch that had been AD’s for the past decade after racking up 9.0 sacks to lead the team last year.  Losing Donald means Los Angeles should be looking to supply Turner with a running mate.  Byron Murphy II and Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton have to garner consideration here.  The Rams also have to be able to put consistent pressure on the QB, but when 21.5 of their 41 sacks were attributed to the D-line, adding explosive edge rushers has to be a priority.  Byron Young had an impressive year with 8.0 sacks while Michael Hoecht contributed another 6.0, though at 6’4” and 310 pounds, the Rams should look to move Hoecht to the DL.  The Only other OLB to register a sack was Zach VanValkenburg.  LA has to prioritize adding another edge rusher to team with Young off the edge.  Think about when the Rams won Super Bowl LV1, AD had 12.5 sacks that year and he had two explosive rushers coming off the edge in Leonard Floyd, who tallied 9.5 sacks, and Von Miller, who was a late addition and registered 5.0 sacks in just 8 games in LA.  To duplicate this recipe for success, if Turner is taking the reins as a dominant rusher up front, he’s going to need two edge rushers to complement the push up front and while we know Young can get the job done, adding Verse would give the Rams a formidable trio getting after the QB.  Before Covid-19 hit in 2020, Verse was a 212-pounds TE at Albany, but once quarantined, he decided to work out every day and bulked up to 240 pounds and became a pretty effective edge rusher with 9.5 sacks during the 2021 season.  That performance caught the eye of several FBS programs and Verse opted to make the transfer to Florida State.  Verse had a breakout 2022 season after racking up 9.0 sacks and 17.0 total TFL.  Many expected him to enter the 2023 draft as he would be a shoo-in as a 1st Round pick.  However, Verse decided instead to come back to FSU for his final season.  Some felt Verse had a bit of a down year by his standards, but he still managed 9.0 sacks and 12.5 TFL.  While he recorded at least 0.5 sacks in eight of his 12 games as a junior, Verse recorded multiple sacks in just four games that accounted for all but 0.5 of his sacks.  Yet those totals didn’t tell the whole story.  Per Pro Football Focus, Verse also racked up 15 hits, another 29 hurries and had a pass rush win rate of 19.9%.  At the Combine, Verse continued to impress as he displayed both the speed and power you saw on film.  He ran a 4.58 40 with a 1.6 10-yrd split and put up 225 pounds in the bench press with 33 ½-inch arms.  Verse has an explosive first step that allows him to fire out of his stance in a hurry.  He has a knack for converting that speed off the ball to power as he’s so violent at the point of attack, often manhandling the OT in front of him with a devastating bull rush.  Verse looks to win early with heavy hands and then getting under the pad level of the OT with tremendous flexibility and driving him deep into the backfield before disposing of him to get to the QB.  He also looks to win with a variety of moves, packaging chops, rips, slaps, arm overs and push-pulls to gain the advantage over the tackle.  Verse would make a plant and a quick fake in one direction to get the OT leaning, then uses his hands to chop at the tackle’s hands and clear in the other direction.  He can bend the edge then flattens out and has the burst to close on the QB in a hurry.  Verse also did a great job setting the stage for teammates to make plays in the backfield.  On two of Braden Fiske’s sacks in the ACC Championship against Louisville, Verse drove so hard to the inside on stunts that would allow Fiske to have a path to loop around to the outside and chase down QB Jack Plummer.  As a pass rusher, Verse can get caught with his pad level too high at times, giving the OT an easy target to lock on, slowing his burst and negating any chance to generate power.  What makes Verse one of the most complete players in this year’s draft class is his ability to play the run.  He uses power and his length to anchor and force the ball carrier back to the inside into the LB and can also show the ability to stack and shed and come off the block to pursue the RB down the line.  He does a great job diagnosing the run plays and will look to drive his man into the rush lane to blow up the run, often taking his shoulder and dropping it into the chest of the OT to drive him back or down the line.  Verse’s ability to change directions in a hurry was seen against the zone read, first taking the RB then planting and getting back outside to chase down the QB.  What may be most obvious is the effort as Verse plays with consistent energy and is always working to get after the ball. 

20.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Terrion Arnold, 6’0”, 189lbs, CB, Alabama, RS Soph.
04/18/24 – Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
03/29/24 – Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
02/22/24 – Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa

The Steelers have had quite the offseason.  While Kenny Pickett battled with injuries last season, but even when he returned healthy for Week 18, Mason Rudolph was still named the starter over Pickett, making it obvious that Pittsburgh was ready to move on to another QB.  After Russell Wilson was released, there was speculation he would end up at a number of different franchises, but Mike Tomlin and the Steelers jumped at the chance to land Wilson.  Once that happened, Kenny Pickett was traded to Philly.  Then, to ensure they have both the present and the future covered at the QB position, the Steelers then made the move to trade for Justin Fields.  Suddenly in short order, Pittsburgh found themselves going from uncertainty at QB to now having a clear plan for the foreseeable future.  That move allowed Tomlin and Co. to go in another direction with this pick.  Along the interior of the OL, Mason Cole is gone leaving a hole at center and both Graham Barton and Jackson Powers-Johnson are considered the top pivots in this draft.  Could we see Barton or JPJ come off the board here?  Considering the Steelers have yet to find a true replacement for Maurkice Pouncey, the last center taken by the organization in the 1st Round back in 2010, it’s definitely plausible.  Tomlin and GM Omar Khan were in attendance at Georgia’s Pro Day and showed a ton of interest in Ladd McConkey who, after an impressive Combine performance, is primed to be a 1st Round pick.  George Pickens looks to be the team’s WR1, but Diontae Johnson was traded to Carolina and Allen Robinson was let go.  That duo combined for 85 receptions, 997 receiving yards and 5 TD a season ago.  Van Jefferson was signed as a free agent, but that addition doesn’t move the needle and third year pro Calvin Austin III has yet to make an impact.  McConkey could easily step in and not only start for Pittsburgh but would be a favorite target of Wilson’s as the team’s WR2.  Then at LB, Patrick Queen takes over one spot along the inside of the defense, but what about the future of Cole Holcomb’s knee?  This is likely too early for Edgerrin Cooper, but he may be a viable option if the Steelers happen to trade down.  LT Dan Moore struggled mightily, giving up 55 total pressures, good for 2nd most in the league among OT, which is inclusive of 8 sacks, which was good for a tie for 8th per Pro Football Focus.  Broderick Jones is taking over on the left side, but that now means there’s a hole on the right side, so both Taliese Fuaga and Amarius Mims will be in play.  I think the focus could actually be on the secondary and specifically at cornerback as the Steelers may have picked off 16 passes a season ago, but the only CBs not named Joey Porter Jr., Patrick Peterson, Levi Wallace and Chandon Sullivan, are all no longer on the roster.  Donte Jackson was signed to a one-year deal, but he’s not considered a long-term option to team with Porter Jr.  I think if Tomlin gets a chance to take Arnold at this point in the draft, he’ll absolutely take it.  While Kool-Aid McKinstry gained all the attention to begin the season in Tuscaloosa, it was Arnold who elevated his game and showed off his talent in coverage.  Arnold finished his redshirt sophomore season with 5 Int. and 12 pass breakups while also tallying 63 tackles, 6.5 of those going for loss.  He’s a fearless corner who will get right up on WRs at the line of scrimmage and has the fluid hips to turn and the vertical speed to run with the WR.  He stays in phase against the wideout and does a good job locating the football down the field and uses impeccable timing with his hands to make a play on the ball.  Arnold can also change directions quickly and drives downhill on the football in a hurry, attacking the ball at the catch point to knock the pass free.  This was especially on display in a rep against Ladd McConkey who ran a dig route with Arnold in press coverage.  You saw smooth hips in his transitions, then McConkey cut across to the inside and Arnold stayed right on his hip trailing the route and as the ball arrives, was able to get his arm underneath McConkey’s arm to the inside to knock the pass away.  Just watch Arnold’s workouts and you’ll see the tremendous footwork, the ability to start and stop in a hurry and if his performance during “The Gauntlet” at the Combine was any indication, he is supremely confident in his hands as he flew down the line maintaining his speed throughout the drill as he easily plucked each pass out of the air.  Now Arnold does seem to lose focus at times and will get grabby as a result.  He also trusts his closing speed too much at times as he offers up too big of a cushion when playing off the ball.  However, Arnold is the ultimate competitor who has been able to continually elevate his game each year and has a chance to further develop his game as a high-end cover corner in the AFC North.

21.   Miami Dolphins – Graham Barton, 6’5”, 313lbs, OL, Duke
04/18/24 – Graham Barton, OL, Duke
03/29/24 – Graham Barton, OL, Duke
02/22/24 – Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon

Miami was among the league’s best all season long.  Mike McDaniel had his team firing on all cylinders to start the year, scoring an impressive 70 points against Denver in Week 3.  However, the Fins missed out on an AFC East crown with a Week 18 home loss against Buffalo and found themselves facing off with the Chiefs in the Wild Card game, ultimately losing 26-7 to Patrick Mahomes and Co.  You’ve seen efforts to try and address key positions this offseason.  Defensively, Jordyn Brooks and Anthony Walker Jr. were signed to take over at ILB while Jordan Poyer and Kyle Fuller help shore up the back end of the defense, especially after the release of Xavien Howard and the loss of both Brandon Jones and Deshon Elliott to free agency.  Jaelen Phillips and Bradley Chubb are coming off a torn Achilles and a torn ACL, respectively, and it’s not yet known exactly when either will be back and to make matters worse, Andrew Van Ginkel was lost to free agency.  Shaquil Barrett was brought in as insurance, but could we see the Dolphins target Laiatu Latu or Chop Robinson to solidify the position?  Christian Wilkins left for Las Vegas, but to try and fill his shoes, the Dolphins signed Neville Gallimore, Benito Jones and Jonathan Harris, but is there a difference maker in this group?  Having a chance to land Byron Murphy II or Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton may be just what’s needed.  Then on offense, Aaron Brewer was signed to take over for free agent Connor Williams.  But Robert Hunt signed a four-year $100-million contract with Carolina which leaves a huge void at RG.  Robert Jones and Lester Cotton are back, but they both struggled up front.  It’s possible we see OT Isaiah Wynn kick inside to OG and Jack Driscoll was signed as a free agent to provide depth.  I just don’t think Fins fans get excited about any of those IOL.  Barton is a technician with five-position versatility and would instantly start as Hunt’s replacement.  Graham Barton started his career at Duke at center, starting five games as a freshman before moving outside to the LT for the remainder of his career, racking up 34 starts over his final three seasons.  He bends well, playing with tremendous leverage, and is excellent with his hands, showing off consistent hand placement inside under the defender’s pad level.  Barton is so light on his feet, showing off good foot speed on his kick slide.  At the same time, he can also sink his hips and drop anchor to stifle a good bull rush, using his leverage to ultimately stand up the rusher.  As a run blocker, Barton looks to get into the defender quickly, firing off the ball with tremendous leverage, takes good angles and displays tremendous leg drive to sustain his blocks and has the ability to finish with authority.  Barton can also climb to the second level under control and does a good job lining up defenders.  His battles against Jared Verse were so much fun to watch.  You could see how Barton was patient with his hands to negate Verse’s tendency to attack the hands early and was light on his hands to slide and keep him in front.  Verse was able to drive him back with a powerful bull rush, using superior length to get his hands into the chest of Barton and worked inside, then a quick move back outside beat Barton.  That lack of length, having under 33-inch arms, got him into trouble on the outside, which is why Barton is projected to play inside where he has Pro Bowl potential.

22.   Philadelphia Eagles – Taliese Fuaga, 6’6”, 324lbs, OT, Oregon State, Jr.
04/18/24 – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
03/29/24 – Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa
02/22/24 – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

The Eagles came off a narrow defeat at the hands of Kansas City in Super Bowl LVII after winning the NFC East and expectations were high going into 2023.  Philly looked strong to start the season, finding themselves with a 10-1 record after 11 games.  However, things came apart for the Eagles losing 5 of their last 6 games and lost the NFC East crown to the Cowboys.  The downward spiral continued in the playoffs as they were bounced by Tampa Bay 32-9 in the Wild Card game.  You had to expect the roster would look different coming into the 2024 season and there were key signings on both sides of the ball.  Philly was able to land star RB Saquon Barkley and brought in WR Devante Parker to team with Devonta Smith and AJ Smith on the outside.  Defensively, the LB room got an overhaul with the signings of Devin White, Oren Burks, Zack Baun and Bryce Huff, while the secondary received a boost with CJ Gardner-Johnson back to play either safety or the nickel.  While Gardner-Johnson is back in an Eagles uniform, you can expect additional moves to be made, especially after Philly finished 28th in the league in passing yards given up and 31st in the league with 35 TD passes against.  Avonte Maddox has already been released while 30-year-old James Bradbury was coming off an outstanding 2022 season where he was named as a 2nd Team All-Pro, but his play dropped off significantly this past season with the lowest Pro Football coverage rating of his career (54.7) and could be a post-June 1 release.  Darius Slay is 33 years of age and, like Bradbury, is in the second year of a three-year deal, and he had a down year for his standards, but still had the highest PFF coverage rating of any corner on the roster last year.  The trio of Kelee Ringo, Josh Jobe and Eli Ricks bring an infusion of youth to the position but struggled mightily last season.  With Bradbury likely on his way out, the door is open for a replacement.  However, the addition of Avonte Maddox, whom the Eagles released and then brought back on a one-year deal, makes me wonder if the Eagles would really target a corner here.  Well, that and the fact that GM Howie Roseman hasn’t drafted a CB since taking the reigns as the Eagles GM in 2010 and the last time Philly selected a corner was 2002 when Lito Sheppard was taken with the 26th overall pick.  We don’t know how much longer RT Lane Johnson will want to continue to play after putting together a Hall-of-Fame-worthy career in Philly.  He’s 34 years of age and is under contract through 2027, but we’ve seen the likes of Jason Kelce and Aaron Donald retire this season, it makes you wonder when Johnson will hang it up.  I think the Eagles have to start thinking about the future and it would behoove them to bring in a young OT to groom as Johnson’s eventual replacement.  Taliese Fuaga has tremendous size and is a physical presence on the right side.  He’s a force as a pass protector, playing with an aggressive edge on the outside, getting out of his stance quickly and looking to quickly get his hands on the DE.  Fuaga doesn’t have ideal arm length (33 1/8 inches), yet he’s able to compensate for that with his ability to get his hands quickly on the DE off the ball helps keep the defender in front so he can stay square.  He’s so quick to set up, has short choppy steps in his kick slide and has impressive change of direction skills to mirror the edge rusher.  He’s heavy-handed and his strikes throw the defender off his rush, and he keeps them active to overwhelm and manhandle.  Fuaga does a great job getting his hand under the armpit of the rusher and is able to shove guys aside or will opt to deliver a blow to the chest that puts his man on the ground.  What is so impressive is the fact that he can display the raw power with his hands while also staying light on his feet and keeping his feet moving.  He had some impressive reps against Laiatu Latu where the UCLA edge rusher would try a two-hand swipe to work to get the edge, but Fuaga kept his feet moving and stayed square which allowed him to reset his hands under Latu’s pad level.  Fuaga’s pad level will creep up at times and he’ll also get too far over his toes, which will make him susceptible to secondary moves in pass protection.  At this point, Fuaga is much better in pass pro than as a run blocker as he often resorts to brute force to win reps.  Fuaga’s lack of length can get him in trouble in the run game as well because if he doesn’t get his hands on you early, he may not be able to recover.  That said, when he does, he has the athleticism to turn and steer you in the direction he wants.  Fuaga is also tremendously light on his feet climbing to the second level or pulling as a lead blocker and has the ability to strike and generate a ton of movement in the run game.  When he generates movement, he’s able to drive his man down the field a good four or five yards and has the strength to finish the rep with authority.  Fuaga can also cave in the right side when blocking down especially in goal line formation.  Oregon DE Jordan Burch exposed Fuaga in the running game as he used his considerable length to strike his chest, then shed and drop the RB for a loss.  Fuaga could easily be off the board by now so there’s a chance Roseman may need to trade up to get him, but finding an eventual successor to Johnson has to be a priority and Fuaga would definitely benefit from being in the same OL room as a future Hall of Famer like Johnson.

23.   Minnesota Vikings (from Houston via Cleveland) – Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton, 6’2”, 304lbs, DT, Illinois, Jr.
04/18/24 – Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois
03/29/24 – Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois
02/22/24 Houston – Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State

Minnesota acquired this pick from Houston in what you have to expect is a play to package their two 1st Round picks in a package to move up into the top five to take the QB they covet, which is likely JJ McCarthy.  However, until that happens, since I don’t project trades, the Vikings still own this pick and will look to further improve the defense.  Danielle Hunter is now with the Texans and DJ Wonnum is in Carolina, but the Vikes were able to address the edge rush position with the signings of Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Ginkel.  Chop Robinson would provide some extra juice coming off the edge.  I also look up front and see a glaring need as only Jonathan Bullard and Harrison Phillips provided any help to the pass rush, tallying 5.0 sacks between the two, but they were a top-10 defense against the run.  Jer’Zhan Newton showed off his ability to get after the passer with regularity, tallying 18 sacks in his career, including 7.5 this past season.  Newton is also very active having recorded at least 50 tackles in each of the last three seasons, was in Illinois’ top four in tackles in each of the last two seasons and amassed 27.5 TFL in his career with the Illini.  Johnny Newton has a quick first step and quickly puts stress on the IOL in front of him before using exceptional hand work to use two-hand swipes, push-pulls and rips through to clear himself then shows such explosiveness getting up the field to chase down the QB.  Newton also has good power in his hand to strike the chest of the guard and drive him back before showing the strength to bench press him and give him separation to then utilize a quick secondary move to get into the backfield in a hurry.  Newton’s strength also allows him to hold the point in his gap against the run.  What’s equally impressive is his nonstop motor that allows him to continually give chase of the football and will pursue the ball carrier all the way to the sideline to make a play.  I think Newton would actually be a perfect fit for Minnesota so it’s a bummer that we likely won’t see it come to fruition with the expected trade.

24.   Dallas Cowboys – Jackson Powers-Johnson, 6’3”, 328lbs, C, Oregon, Jr.
04/18/24 – Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
03/29/24 – Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
02/22/24 – Troy Fautanu, OT/OG, Washington

Dallas has had a rather quiet offseason to this point.  The only move worth mentioning at this point is Eric Kendricks was brought in to replace Leighton Vander Esch, who retired from the game due to chronic injuries.  Looking at the Cowboys’ O-line, LT Tyron Smith and center Tyler Biadasz both left in free agency and while there’s a chance we could see Tyler Smith move outside to the OT spot, there isn’t an option for the center position.  I still think that Amarius Mims and Tyler Guyton will garner serious consideration here, but the last time the Cowboys took a center in Round 1 was in 2013 when they used the 31st overall pick to select Travis Frederick who started in Dallas through the 2019 season when Biadasz took over when Frederick retired.  Could Jerry Jones be targeting a new pivot here to be the anchor of the interior?  Powers-Johnson saw time at OG in his first two seasons with the Ducks before taking over at center for the 2023 season where he started all 13 games, was named a 1st Team All-American and won the Rimington Trophy as the country’s top center.  He’s a lot of fun to watch because he plays with a nasty disposition as it seems like he takes pleasure in not only beating those who lined up in front of him, but also punishing them.  He’s very heavy handed and that strong violent punch to stun defenders and send them on their heels in a hurry.  We saw at the Combine that JPJ is exceptional in one-on-one matchups, showing good feet to slide and pick up the defender, then sink his hips to anchor and then manhandle his opponent with such a strong upper body.  Powers-Johnson is also effective in space, not only showing the athleticism to climb to the second level and seal off defenders, but he’s also looking for a defender to light up as he’s on the move.  He does a great job staying balanced in pass protection, staying upright and not leaning too far over his toes.  At the same time, he’s not a natural knee bender and his pad level can creep up and his arm length is on the shorter side having just 32 1/4-inch arms, but you love the torque with which he plays to just throw guys around at will at the point of attack when he gets his hands on the defender early.  Powers-Johnson has only 13 starts at the center position, so teams will have to make more of a projection here, but his mean streak and workmanlike approach to the game is exactly what Dallas needs up front. 

25.   Green Bay Packers – Cooper DeJean, 6’0”, 203lbs, DB, Iowa, Jr.
04/18/24 – Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
03/29/24 – Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
02/22/24 – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

The Packers had a very underwhelming start to the 2023 season by beginning the year 2-5, but Matt LaFleur had his team firing on all cylinders during the back half of the season.  Green Bay finished the year 7-3 and found its way into the playoffs where they took down Dallas and went toe-to-toe with San Francisco before suffering a narrow 24-21 defeat.  Brian Gutekunst’s investment in Jordan Love is beginning to pay dividends as he played at a high level to end the season.  Protecting Love has to continue to be a top priority, especially with the team moving on from LT David Bakhtiari.  The Packers have been linked to Amarius Mims and Tyler Guyton as potential OT options in the draft, but Rasheed Walker filled in well on the left side, finishing with the team’s top pass block rating according to Pro Football Focus.  What’s even more encouraging is that as a unit, Green Bay’s OL finished with just 30 sacks given up, which was good for 3rd fewest in the league last year.  Will Gutekunst and LaFleur really use the 25th overall pick to address a strength from last season and take an OT for the first time since 2011 when Derek Sherrod was taken 32nd overall?  Not likely.  Instead, I think the Packers turn attention to a pass defense that was 11th in pass yards given up a season ago, but their 7 Int. was the second fewest in the league.  Jaire Alexander signed a four year $84-million contract prior to the start of the 2022 season and produced immediately with a Pro Bowl season that year.  However, injuries kept him from nine games, and he missed another game due to suspension and when he did play, Pro Football Focus had him 99th in the league with a 73.5% catch rate.  His running mate Eric Stokes saw action in just three games because of a nagging hamstring injury and when he did play, his catch rate allowed was 73.3%.  Stokes won’t be a UFA until after the 2025 season, but according to spotrac.com, letting him go this offseason carries a $2.651 million dead cap hit and would only account for $1.143 million in cap savings, while any dead cap for his release would drop to zero after the end of the season and would save the team $12 million against the cap, so I fully expect Stokes to remain on the roster in 2024 in a make-or-break season.  Corey Ballentine and Carrington Valentine have been pleasant surprises as depth pieces at the CB position.  What is needed is another corner who can not only line up on the outside, but who could also be a playmaker the secondary was lacking a season ago.  Cooper DeJean is a versatile chess piece on the back end of the defense as he can cover both inside and on the outside and can transition to playing on the back end if needed.  His ability to line up at multiple positions would make him a key piece in the Packers’ secondary.  DeJean had a breakout 2022 at corner playing opposite Riley Moss.  His instincts and playmaking ability were on full display as he picked off 5 passes, returning three of them back for scores, and broke up 8 passes.  DeJean had an emphatic end to the 2022 season as the Music City Bowl Defensive MVP, logging 7 tackles, an Int. returned for TD and returning 3 punts for 42 yards in the win over Kentucky.  DeJean was a key piece of the Hawkeye defense in 2023 as well, racking up 41 tackles while picking off 2 more passes and broke up 5 passes through 7 games before breaking his fibula in practice in November, requiring surgery for the injury.  DeJean missed getting to work out at the Combine and is hoping to be back by April.  DeJean is so instinctive with the ability to drive on the football in a hurry.  He is quick and stays low in his back pedal and can stay on the hip of the WR throughout the route.  When he’s stride for stride with the WR down the sideline, DeJean does a tremendous job getting his head around, locates the ball and does a tremendous job attacking the ball at the catch point.  DeJean is truly at his best in zone coverage where he can read the route as well as the QB’s eyes and then trust his eyes to close on the ball in a hurry.  What’s impressive is he’s not just looking to make a play on the ball, but rather he’s looking to pluck the ball out of the air and make a play when he has the ball in his hands.  DeJean has a muscular build and with that comes some tightness in his hips, which is why he’s able to make a lot of straight-line plays but struggles at times with quick transitions.  DeJean is physical not only around the line of scrimmage against the run but is also quite physical against WRs in the passing game.  DeJean’s play screams safety, though he could be effective as a zone corner.  If nothing else, he would give the Pack some flexibility on the back end of their defense.

26.   Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Chop Robinson, 6’3”, 254lbs, Edge, Penn State, Jr.
04/18/24 – Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State
03/29/24 – Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State  
02/22/24 – Graham Barton, OL, Duke

Tampa had quite the 2023 season, surviving a four-game losing streak early in the season to win five of its last six to win the NFC South and earn a playoff victory over the Eagles before narrowly losing to the Lions.  The Bucs’ late-season resurgence was thanks in large part to Baker Mayfield, who finally found himself a home and he was rewarded for his hard work, signing to a three-year $100-million contract.  The team also was able to bring back WR Mike Evans and LB Lavonte David while the likes of Devin White (Philadelphia) and Shaq Barrett (Miami) found homes elsewhere and Carlton Davis was traded to Detroit.  KJ Britt will take over for White while the emergence of Yaya Diaby, who led Tampa Bay with 7.0 sacks last year, will take over for the departed Barrett.  The one question Tampa has is whether Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, who has managed just 13.0 sacks over his three seasons in the league, is still deserving of a starting spot.  This is about where the explosive Chop Robinson could come off the board.  The trade of Davis leaves the secondary with a hole opposite Jamel Dean.  Bryce Hall was added as a depth piece and Zyon McCollum started nine games a season ago after stepping up his game last year.  Adding Kool-Aid McKinstry would allow McCollum to play a hybrid role with Antoine Winfield and Jordan Whitehead at safety.  If we turn to the offensive side of the ball, with Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke holding down the OT spots, the interior of the O-line is due for an upgrade.  Graham Barton and Jackson Powers-Johnson would be easy picks if available to take over at either LG or center.  There are a few directions the Bucs could go with this pick and with Barton and JPJ likely off the board here, that narrows the focus to McKinstry and Robinson.  I think the scales tip in favor of Robinson when you consider the loss of Barrett combined with the pedestrian play of Tryon-Shoyinka and Anthony Nelson, who managed just 3.0 sacks a season ago, is the only depth piece at the position.  Robinson turned heads at the Combine when he ran a blistering 4.48 40 after measuring in at 6’3” and 254 pounds.    That explosiveness would be a welcome addition coming off the edge in Tampa.  His elite athleticism is reminiscent of Penn State LB Micah Parsons, who ran a 4.36 40 after racking up 109 tackles, 5.0 sacks and 14.0 TFL in 2019 and became the 12th overall selection of Dallas in 2021.Robinson’s explosiveness was on display against Michigan where his lightning quick first step was too much for RT Karsen Barnhart which allowed him to bend the edge in a hurry and put instant pressure on JJ McCarthy. That pressure forced Jim Harbaugh to abandon the pass altogether with just 8 passing attempts compared with 46 carries on the ground.  Demeioun “Chop” Robinson began his career at Maryland before transferring to Penn State prior to his sophomore season in 2022 and immediately made a name for himself as a game wrecker with 5.5 sacks and 10.0 TFL.  Expectations were high for Chop in 2024 but was limited to 10 games after sustaining an upper body injury against Ohio State in October and wound up with just 4.0 sacks and 7.5 TFL.  At this point, Robinson is more potential than production, similar to fellow Nittany Lion Odafe Oweh who was the 31st pick in the 2021 draft after managing just 7.0 sacks in three years.  Robinson is a quick-twitch athlete who fires off the ball so quickly to get a quick jump on the OT.  You’ll see a quick stutter and then a quick burst to shoot inside the OT on one lay, then uses a quick rip move off the edge to get the corner on the next.  Robinson has elite bend to dip his shoulder and make a tight turn to run the arc to get to the QB.  He can also explode into the OTs with tremendous speed to power to drive the blocker back into the backfield with a powerful bull rush.  Robinson is still green as an edge rusher as he doesn’t have much of a pass rush plan, lacks counters and is still learning to use his hands effectively.  He can also extend over his toes too far which can get him off balance and limit his effectiveness coming off the edge.  However, if Robinson can develop his game and add technique to his athleticism, then the sky’s the limit on the havoc he can create at the next level.

27.   Arizona Cardinals (from Houston) – Nate Wiggins, 6’1”, 173lbs, CB, Clemson, Jr.
04/18/24 – Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
03/29/24 – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
02/22/24 – Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

The Cardinals gained a second 1st Round pick when they made the deal with Houston to trade out of the No. 3 overall pick last year.  With the focus on adding a No. 1 WR with their first pick, I firmly believe this pick will be used on the defensive side of the football, especially with Jonah Williams coming on board to take over the LT position from DJ Humphries.  Clearly the DL and CB positions have been areas of focus this offseason as DT’s Bilal Nichols and Justin Jones and CB Sean Murphy-Bunting have been brought in to provide veteran leadership to two youthful position groups.  Those moves could mean Arizona has their eyes on an edge rusher after finishing with an underwhelming 33.0 sacks, good for 30th in the league last year.  Dennis Gardeck led the team with 6.0 sacks, followed by BJ Ojulari and Victor Dimukeje with 4.0 and Zaven Collins added 3.5.  Chop Robinson’s explosiveness would be just what the doctor ordered to revive an anemic pass rush if he’s available.  With him off the board, Washington’s Bralen Trice could be an option here, though I think he’s trending to the 2nd Round at this point and could be a target of the Cards’ 35th overall selection.  Another option would be to address the pass rush up front defensively.  Nichols managed just 3.0 sacks in his two seasons with the Raiders after amassing 8.0 in his final two seasons in Chicago, while Jones finished with a career-high 4.5 sacks in his second full season in Chicago.  I think Nichols could actually slide to the NT position where he tallied his career high 5.0 sacks in 2020 if they can target another interior rusher up front, so Darius Robinson could be the guy here.  Arizona could also pivot to Kool-Aid McKinstry to add a starting CB opposite Murphy-Bunting, but with a group that already has youngsters in Starling Thomas V, Kei-Trel Clark, Divaad Wilson and Garrett Williams, could Monty Ossenfort add another to the CB room?  I think the additions of Nichols, Jones and NT Khyiris Tonga up front in free agency means this pick could very well be on a corner and Wiggins could easily come in and start with Murphy-Bunting, so that’s where I’m going with this pick.  Wiggins can be that guy, having tallied 3 Int., two of which were taken back to the house including a 98-yarder against Drake Maye in 2022, and also broke up another 19 passes in his final two seasons at Clemson.  Like Alexander (4.38) and Stokes (4.29), Wiggins has sub-4.4 speed having run a 4.28 40 at the Combine.  He’s incredibly fluid with his ability to flip his hips and turn and mirror the WR up the field, His problem is that he can get himself in trouble by not turning quickly enough and WRs can run right by him.  Devontez Walker beat him with a vertical route as Wiggins was late to get his hands on Walker and didn’t turn quickly enough to run with Walker and didn’t get his head around as he was already beaten for a 44-yard TD.  Wiggins is excellent in off coverage when the throw is in front of him as he can drive quickly downhill to make a play on the football.  He can also struggle with contested catches as his 30 ½-inch arms are on the shorter side which can limit his ability to make a play on the ball.  One thing you can’t question is the effort and recovery speed.  One example was against UNC where he showed the speed and hustle to chase down RB Omarion Hampton who was off to the races on an outside zone run for 64 yards.  Wiggins chopped down on the ball and punched it free at the 1-yard line with the ball rolling out of the end zone for a touchback.

28.   Buffalo Bills – Adonai Mitchell, 6’2”, 205lbs, WR, Texas
04/18/24 – Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
03/29/24 – Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
02/22/24 – Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

2023 was yet another year that ended in disappointment for the Buffalo Bills who won the AFC East for the fourth consecutive season but was unceremoniously bounced in the playoffs, losing in the Divisional Round for the third straight year.  Production at the WR position was lacking, especially in the playoffs outside of Stefon Diggs and Khalil Shakir as RB James Cook and TEs Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid were the only other receivers to make an impact.  Gabe Davis is now in Jacksonville and Buffalo looked to find his replacement in free agency, bringing in Curtis Samuel, who will be a weapon in the slot.  The Bills also added Mack Hollins, who is with his fourth team in four years and is considered a depth piece at this point.  Diggs was rumored this offseason to be pursuing a trade and Buffalo pulled the trigger, sending him to the Texans, creating a giant need at WR.  It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Buffalo looks to trade up to land a WR1 in this draft.  However, if they decide to stay put, they could use this pick on Mitchell who can be a legitimate vertical threat for Buffalo.  Mitchell began his career at Georgia and had a solid true freshman season with 29 catches for 426 yards and 4 TD before missing most of the 2022 season with a grade 3 ankle sprain.  He made the move to Texas for his junior season and had a breakout season with 55 catches for 845 yards and 11 TD with the Longhorns.  Mitchell has proven to be a legitimate vertical threat on the outside, showing quick acceleration for a guy his size, eating up yards in bunches with his long strides to create separation early.  He checked the box off with his speed at the Combine running a 4.33 40.  However, Mitchell is a much better route runner than he’s given credit for.  He does such a good job widening the CB by showing an outside release, getting the corner to open his hips to the outside in the process, the crossing his face to gain easy separation on an in-breaking route.  He’ll also show the post to the DB before getting separation on his outside release.  You’ll see him come back right down the stem to the QB on curl routes and is sudden off the line to separate quickly on crossing routes.  Mitchell does a good job stacking the corner and does a tremendous job tracking the ball while it’s in the air.  What’s also impressive is the catch radius as he plucks anything thrown in his vicinity out of the air with a strong hands-catch and utilizes his 39.5-inch vertical to climb the ladder and bring down 50-50 balls.  For as much talent as Mitchell has, he’s nowhere near as dominant as you’d expect him to be.  He only tallied three 100-yard games and had four or more receptions in just seven of his 32 career games.  He was a problem for Bama, hauling in 2 TD with a 26-yard average on his three catches, but he only had one other game with multiple TD.  And those 100-yard performances accounted for nearly half of his receptions (24) and yards (399).  There are questions about whether Mitchell can stay motivated for an entire season and feels like there is boom-or-bust potential.  However, his combination of size, speed and ball skills would be exactly what Buffalo needs.

29.   Detroit Lions – Kool-Aid McKinstry, 5’11”, 199lbs, CB, Alabama, Jr.
04/18/24 – Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
03/29/24 – Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
02/22/24 – Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

Detroit Lions fans came into Dan Campbell’s third year as head coach with a ton of optimism, seeing how he improved the record from 3-13-1 in 2021 to 9-8 and narrowly missing the playoffs the following year.  What Campbell and Co. were able to do was not only reignite a fire in an organization that had been extinguished for so long, but also helped reinvigorate an entire city.  Detroit finished the 2023 season with a 12-5 record and not only won the NFC North for the first time since 1993, but also won a playoff game for the first time since 1991.  In fact, the Lions were just a half of football away from making it to the franchise’s first Super Bowl.  This is definitely not the 0-16 Detroit Lions of which Campbell was a part in 2008.  The trajectory is sky high which means expectations will be as well.  The Lions were able to address some holes on the roster in free agency, signing OG Kevin Zeitler to take over at RG for the departed Jonah Jackson, while Amik Robertson and the trade for Carlton Davis, along with Emmanuel Moseley’s re-signing with the team, addressed a CB group that needed to be addressed.  And the DL needed attention and DT DJ Reader was brought in to team with Alim McNeill while DE Marcus Davenport was signed to push Josh Paschal, John Cominsky and James Houston IV for playing time opposite Aidan Hutchinson.  Those additions allow the Lions to use this pick as a luxury pick if they want and I’m thinking adding a WR could be the target with this pick especially with Josh Reynolds is gone and with some key drops in the playoffs, the team is ready for his replacement.  With Amon-Ra St. Brown a legitimate star and vertical threat Jameson Williams, adding a long speedster like Adonai Mitchell on the outside could elevate the Lions’ passing game.  This pick just feels like Campbell and Brad Hopkins will be going defense here and will be targeting someone who fits the culture established in Detroit.  That means this pick will come down to either DE Darius Robinson or CB Kool-Aid McKinstry.  I think McKinstry ends up winning out as Davis and McKinstry would start on the outside with Robertson lining up in the slot.  McKinstry is an intelligent pure cover corner on the outside who always seems to put himself in position to make a play.  He’s strong in press coverage, staying square and showing patience before getting his hands on the WR early to slow up the release.  He’s smooth in his transitions and is able to quickly turn to run with the WR down the field, remaining in phase by showing a quick burst after the turn.  McKinstry does a great job squeezing the WR to the sideline not giving any room to work and forcing the QB to make a perfect throw and does a great job looking and leaning to close off the route.   McKinstry also shows perfect tempo with the wideout in and out of breaks.  His field awareness is exceptional as he does a good job reading the QB’s eyes when covering underneath routes and is able to get depth to affect the deeper throws by undercutting the route and can also come off his man to the outside to make a play on the ball thrown to a receiver to the inside.  McKinstry has solid ball skills often attacking the catch point, and finished his career with 2 Int. and 23 pass breakups in his three seasons at Bama.  He’s also gone up against top end competition having kept himself in position against the likes of Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Adonai Mitchell and Ladd McConkey.  McKinstry is also a dynamic punt returner, having averaged 11.9 yards per return in his career, including a15.8 average that led the SEC in 2022.  Now McKinstry can be very handsy, especially down the field, and needs to trust his technique and not panic if he wants to avoid pass interference penalties.  He also needs to be better as a tackler, both on the outside after the catch and when coming downhill against the run.  One thing he did silence doubters on was his speed after his 40 time was clocked at 4.47 at Alabama’s Pro Day.  I think McKinstry has the instincts, speed, athleticism and ball skills to excel at the next level.

30.   Baltimore Ravens – Amarius Mims, 6’8”, 340lbs, OT, Georgia, RS Soph.
04/18/24 – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
03/29/24 – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
02/22/24 – Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri

2023 was supposed to be the year of the Ravens in the NFL.  The team finished the regular season with the No.1 seed after finishing with a league-best record of 13-4 and Lamar Jackson had another MVP season.  However, Baltimore ran into the playoff buzzsaw that is Kansas City and lost the AFC Championship to the Chiefs 17-10.  The defense led the league with 60 sacks and locking up DT Justin Madubuike, who had a career year with 13.5 of those sacks, was a huge win, but Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy, who combined for 18.5 sacks, are no longer on the roster.  The edge rush position is now in the hands of Odafe Oweh and David Ojabo, who combined for just 6.0 sacks last season.  Is Ojabo ready for a starting role?  The Ravens would gladly select Chop Robinson if he were here, but would they target Bralen Trice here?  At corner, Marlon Humphrey was limited to just 10 games and while Brandon Stephens showed good ball skills with 13 passes defended, the position lacked depth.  Ennis Rakestraw should get a strong look here.  Lamar led the team in rushing and the No. 2 rusher Gus Edwards wound up in LA with the Chargers, so the Ravens brought in Derrick Henry to establish a power running game in Baltimore.  The OL has to be ready to dominate the line of scrimmage, but there’s a hole at RT with Morgan Moses heading to the Jets in free agency and his backup Daniel Faalele is not ready for a starting spot.  This seems to be the right spot to target Amarius Mims to play opposite Ronnie Stanley up front.  It’s easy to see Mims stand out among his peers, literally, with his monster frame standing in at 6’8” and 340 pounds.  His arm length is massive at 36 1/8 inches and his 11 1/4-inch hands are the largest among all OL at the Combine.  Yet his athleticism is off the charts, having run a 5.07 40 at the Combine.  Mims has tremendous knee bend for a man his size and does a good job playing with leverage, shooting his hands inside and under the DE’s pad level.  His kick slide is easy and smooth and covers so much ground in a short period of time, is patient with his hands and remains balanced and under control.  Mims has decent change of direction skills to keep a defender in front on secondary moves.  He also has the power in his hands to strike and drive defenders to the ground or shove them up the field with ease.  Mims also has the power and leverage as a drive blocker in the run game.  He’ll use his length to fire into the body of the defender in a hurry and drives though contact to generate a ton of movement.  The biggest question is his limited experience as he’s started just eight games in three seasons despite playing in a total of 29.  Mims will get caught leaning on the outside in pass protection and will overset, which leaves him susceptible to an inside rush.  He can also struggle to sustain his blocks in the run game, especially when on the move.  Mims is still green and needs to continue his development, but the traits are off the charts, making him the right value with this pick. 

31.   San Francisco 49ers – Tyler Guyton, 6’8”, 322lbs, OT, Oklahoma, Jr.
04/18/24 – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
03/29/24 – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
02/22/24 – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

The 49ers made it to their second Super Bowl in five seasons under Kyle Shanahan yet found themselves again on the losing end against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.  San Fran has been addressing the defense this offseason and the top-ten unit from a year ago will look different.  Up front, DE’s Chase Young and Clelin Ferrell along with DT’s Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw are gone and in their place are Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos on the outside and Maliek Collins and Jordan Elliott along the interior.  Devondre Campbell joins Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, who is recovering from an Achilles tear in the Super Bowl, at LB.  The cornerback position also saw attention as Isaac Yiadom and Chase Lucas were added to team with Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir.  All that activity seems to point to Shanahan and John Lynch eyeing offense with this pick.  Rumors abound that Brandon Aiyuk is on his way out of San Francisco, so the Niners have to be prepared if/when this happens.  Ladd McConkey and Adonai Mitchell would make sense with this pick, but there’s a good chance both are off the board, so the 49ers could wait until Day 2 to find his eventual replacement should plans actually involve trading Aiyuk.  I actually think the focus will turn to the OL.  The unit gave up just 34 sacks, good for a tie for 6th fewest in the league but finding an upgrade over RT Colton McKivitz should be a priority.  In his first year as a starter on the right side, Pro Football Focus noted McKivitz gave up 9 sacks, which tied him for 4th most last season, and his 47 pressures was in the top 10.  Protecting Brock Purdy and giving him a clean pocket should be the focus with this pick and there’s a chance the uber-athletic Tyler Guyton could be available here.  Guyton actually began his career as an HB at TCU in 2021 and played in eight games, starting one before transferring to Oklahoma and taking on the OT position full time.  Guyton lacks experience at the OT position having only 14 starts in his two seasons in Norman.  However, he has enticing athletic traits as a pass protector that should pique the Niners’ interest.  Guyton finished the 2023 season without giving up a single sack and managed to give up only 12 total pressures.  He’s light on his feet in pass pro taking short choppy steps in his kick slide to remain square to the edge rusher.  He easily absorbs the punch of the DE and can sit down and keep his pad level low and isn’t moved off his point, but when he gets his hands on the defender, he offers tremendous grip strength as he extends his arms into him and can force the defender away from the pocket.  Guyton is also heavy handed, using violent strikes to easily shove the DE away from the pocket and uses impressive torque to throw him to the ground.  He can keep the edge rusher centered on secondary moves, but can get caught leaning, which takes away his quick change of direction and can be beaten.  He’s still learning in the run game as his hand placement can be inconsistent, but his physicality is undeniable as he does a tremendous job clearing the way, whether it’s blocking down to cave in the right side or climbing to the second level to take out the LB.  Guyton was called for five penalties this past season and most involved mental breakdowns, which is concerning.  Guyton can learn from future Hall of Famer Trent Williams as he pushes McKivitz immediately for the starting spot at RT.

32.   Kansas City Chiefs – Ladd McConkey, 6’0”, 186lbs, WR, Georgia, Jr.
04/18/24 – Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
03/29/24 – Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
02/22/24 – Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

The Super Bowl Champs got off to a hot start winning seven of their first nine games but losing four of their next six games after the bye week before finishing the season with an 11-6 record, missing out on the top seed in the AFC.  However, the Chiefs got hot at the right time, beating the Dolphins, Bills and Ravens in the playoffs before taking down the 49ers to win it all.  Patrick Mahomes again did his thing, but it was Steve Spagnuolo and his defense that stole the show down the stretch.  Re-signing Chris Jones was huge for the DL, but the trade of L’Jarius Sneed leaves a hole at corner.  Ennis Rakestraw will be in play here, but with a deep CB class, KC can focus on the offensive side of the ball here, then select a corner on Day 2.  The OT position was a struggle throughout the season, especially at RT with Jawaan Taylor finishing first in the league with 24 penalties, which was six more than the next closest player, and was graded 72nd out of 81 qualifying OTs per Pro Football Focus.  Unfortunately for KC, Taylor just signed a 4-year $80 million contract before the start of the 2023 season and carries $54 million in dead cap if he’s let go prior to June 1st, per spotrac.com, but the dead cap drops significantly if he’s traded.  Would someone be willing to trade for him?  It doesn’t seem likely, which means the Chiefs have to hope he returns to the player we saw in Jacksonville.  If a move is made for Taylor, then you could see Kansas City make a play for Amarius Mims or Tyler Guyton.  However, there’s a bigger need at the WR position.  Travis Kelce had another banner year with 93 receptions for 974 yards, but he needs consistent help.  Rashee Rice was the second-leading receiver in his rookie season and looks like a keeper while Justin Watson made some clutch catches down the stretch and should be seen as a complementary possession WR.  Marquez Valdes-Scantling always had the speed, but his hands were unreliable, and he was ultimately let go in a cost-saving measure.  Adding Marquise Brown gives Mahomes another weapon who can line up both on the outside or in the slot.  However, the roster is in desperate need of another playmaker to take pressure off Kelce and Mahomes.  A natural athlete, McConkey played QB, RB, safety, punter and returned punts in high school before settling on WR at Georgia.  In his three seasons with the Bulldogs, McConkey caught 119 passes for 1,687 and 14 TD while also averaging 13.3 yards on 21 punt returns.  It seems that there is a WR every year who seems to be unguardable at the Senior Bowl and this year, it was McConkey, who was so intelligent with his route running that he had a plan for how to attack any CB that lined up against him.  He would vary his release, put stress on the corner up the field, is sudden at the top of the route and has the burst and acceleration out of breaks to create easy separation.  McConkey also does a tremendous job setting up the defender by widening him out before planting to cut away from the DB.  It’s the ability to snap off the route without losing any speed or momentum is what makes McConkey so lethal.  McConkey is also so good at selling his double moves, showing the ability to throttle down on a stop and go before accelerating by the defender after he bites, leaving him in the dust and allowing him to track the ball over his shoulder for a big play.  McConkey also has the spatial awareness to settle down in the voids of the zone and presents an open target for the QB. The suddenness in the route running carries over to his playmaking ability after the catch and in the return game as he’s able to make the first man miss, then uses his lateral agility to juke out defenders and get down the field without missing a beat.  The crisp route running to create separation hid the fact that McConkey also has tremendous vertical speed as evidenced by the 4.39 40 he ran at the Combine.  McConkey used that speed to his advantage as a gunner on the punt cover team, showing the ability to get down the field and down Brett Thorson punts inside the 20, including one punt he was able to elevate and tip the ball in the air and catch it at the 1-yard line.  McConkey battled ankle and back injuries this past season that limited him to nine games.  That shouldn’t be cause for concern and he showed impressive toughness trying to play through the pain.  Even with the ankle injury that left him limping and unable to create separation against Alabama in the SEC Championship, he still managed to haul in 3 passes for 38 yards.  McConkey did have some concentration drops in 2022, finishing with a total of six, a drop rate of 11.5% per Pro Football Focus.  However, he’s shown improved concentration and does a good job extending away from his frame to make a play on the football.  McConkey also does a great job shielding the ball from the defender when he has inside leverage, making sure the defender can’t get a hand in and make a play on the football.