2023 NFL Draft: First Round Mock Draft and Analysis

1.  Carolina Panthers (from Chicago) – Bryce Young, 5’10”, 204lbs, QB, Alabama, RS Soph.
03/28/23 – CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State
02/05/23 – Chicago – Will Anderson Jr., OLB, Alabama
We knew there would be a team to trade up with the Chicago Bears for the No. 1 overall pick to take a QB, but the question was going to be which team would pull the trigger. We now know that Carolina is that team, trading the No. 9 pick, their 2nd Round pick this year and both their 1st and 2nd Round picks in 2024 along with No. 1 WR DJ Moore. That’s quite a haul for Bears’ GM Ryan Poles, but it’s clear Frank Reich, QB coach Josh McCown want to make sure they have their QB of the future.  The timing of this trade seems to speak volumes as Reich and McCown were on hand to watch CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson put on a show in Indianapolis.  Clearly, they must have seen something that made them want to take action, likely because they knew they had to have either Stroud or Bryce Young, giving owner David Tepper a young, dynamic rookie under center that can generate immediate buzz for the franchise.  It’s really a close call between Young and Stroud.  Bryce Young is a dynamic passer with the arm strength to make throws to all three levels of the field and is accurate both over the middle and outside the numbers.  Of course, his ability to improvise, make plays off script and look like a point guard looking to distribute the rock, manipulating the pocket with his eyes down the field to find an open WR.  He’s mature beyond his years with ice water in his veins and his football IQ is off the charts, all qualities you want in a franchise QB.  But the question remains whether his frame can hold up to the rigors of a full NFL season.  We frankly haven’t seen a QB with his build under center in the league for any length of time.  Former No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray is also 5’10”, but he’s more solidly built as Young has a more slender frame and played under 200 pounds at Bama.  What do you do when you have a QB with all the tools of a No. 1 overall pick and elite intangibles, but has legitimate questions about his durability?  It’s definitely a gamble.  At the same time, Stroud has elite tools himself.  But can McCown unlock consistent velocity when Stroud needs to drive the football?  Stroud may ultimately get the nod because he has the prototypical frame and fits the mold of the QB Reich has had success with during his coaching career.  However, if Tepper wants to be relevant sooner rather than later, then Young is that guy, a Heisman Trophy-winning QB with ice water in his veins and maturity beyond his years who can step in and start for the franchise right away.  Now there is going to be talk of his size.  Young measured in at 5’10 1/8” at the Combine and really had to work hard to get his weight up to 204 pounds, though I wouldn’t expect him to be playing at that weight. While some may argue that Kyler Murray himself was 5’10” when he was selected No. 1 overall by Arizona in 2019, his more muscular frame is much different than the much leaner Young.  Teams will have to ask themselves whether Young can hold up to the pounding of a full NFL season and really weigh his durability concerns versus what Young can do under center.  That said, Young’s play on the field will force teams to look at the player.  He’s supremely confident and always seems to be under control.  If you let Young hang out in the pocket, he will carve you up with his ability to see the whole field despite his size and getting the ball to his WR in a hurry.  If you do pressure him, Young shows a knack for manipulating the pocket, playing off script and surveying the field to find the open man.  Granted, he’ll be asked to play on schedule more often, but there’s no question that just because you get home doesn’t mean you’ll be able to get him down as he doesn’t panic and finds a way to evade defenders.  As Bama’s PG, he uses his eyes to move the defense where he needs them to be to create space for his WR to make a play.  For all his creativity, Young’s durability is the major concern though his arm strength doesn’t stand out either.  Can he get away with throws under duress in the NFL that he was able to pull off in college?  That If his body holds up, Young has the potential to be special.

2.  Houston Texans – Tyree Wilson, 6’6”, 271lbs, DE, Texas Tech
03/28/23 – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
02/05/23 – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
I think the common belief is that there’s no question Houston will be taking a QB with their first pick in this year’s draft, especially after finishing 31st in the league with a 76.8 QB rating in 2022. However, a late season win cost the Texans the top pick in the draft and now with the Panthers striking a deal with the Bears for that spot, Houston likely misses out on Bryce Young.  Are Nick Caserio and DeMeco Ryans sold on the remaining trio of QB prospects in CJ Stroud, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson?  Given that Levis and Richardson are largely considered developmental prospects, so I don’t think Houston would pull the trigger at No. 2, that’s just not Caserio’s style.  Then there’s Stroud, who had the monster game against Georgia where he finally showed he can improvise and make plays with his legs outside the pocket, but one game is nowhere enough to overlook 25 games where Stroud was largely sitting in the pocket hitting his primary receiver.  Can Stroud improvise when the play breaks down at the next level?  The S2 Cognitive Test has largely replaced the Wonderlic Test as it helps understand how athletes perform and brings visibility to their skill sets.  According to Lance Zierlein of NFL.com, while Young, Levis and Richardson all scored well, Stroud did not and in the last seven years, not one QB who has scored poorly on the S2 Cognitive Test has been successful in the league.  There may be enough red flags for Houston to pass on Stroud as well.  Think about it – Ryans is a defensive-minded head coach and his success as San Franciso’s DC was due in large part to the success getting after the QB.  34-year-old Jerry Hughes paced the Texans with 9.0 sacks a season ago, but Ogbo Okoronkwo and Rasheem Green, who combined for 8.5 sacks, are both gone in free agency.  While Chase Winovich to provide depth up front, but Ryans is still in search of a difference maker like he had with Nick Bosa.  At one point, the expectation for the top defensive player in the draft was Will Anderson Jr.  However, Ryans has always had a long, ferocious DL as the cornerstone of the defense.  As a player, Ryans played behind the great JJ Watt.  As a coach, Ryans started his career with he 49ers in 2017 as the defensive quality control analyst.  Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner, each of whom have long wingspans, were already on the roster, then the Niners drafted Solomon Thomas No, 3 overall in that draft.  Just two years later, Nick Bosa was taken No. 2 overall.  Ryans will also be implementing a 4-3 defense in Houston.  All of these points lead back to Tyree Wilson being the pick here.  And if you want to talk about length, Wilson’s 86-inch wingspan should instantly grab Ryans’ attention.  Wilson uses that wingspan to his advantage on the edge against both the pass and the run.  He’s dynamic setting the edge and as a backside defender chasing down RB’s and is able to convert speed to power to attack the edge in a hurry as a pass rusher.   He can attack you in a number of ways, whether it’s in a two-point stance, as a traditional 4-3 DE or even kicking inside as the 4i to provide an interior rush on obvious passing downs, which will give Ryans options up front.  Wilson just knows how to get to the QB, having generated 7 sacks and 50 pressures in 2022.  Last year, Aidan Hutchinson was seen as the odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick, but Travon Walker’s traits and fit in Jacksonville won out.  This year, it seems like Wilson over Anderson Jr.

3.  Arizona Cardinals – Paris Johnson Jr., 6’6”, 313lbs, OT, Ohio State, Jr.
03/28/23 – WilL Anderson Jr., OLB, Alabama
02/05/23 – Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
The Steve Keim-Kliff Kingsbury era is over in Arizona and Monti Ossenfort and Jonathan Gannon have taken over the reins of an underachieving organization looking for a spark. A great way to do that is to improve a pass rush that tallied just 34 sacks, which was good for 24th in the league in 2022. A pair of DL the now-retired JJ Watt and free agent Zach Allen, accounted for 18 of the team’s sacks and no edge rusher brought down the QB more than three times (Myjai Sanders, 3.0).  If those stats weren’t enough to convince you that this pick will be used on an edge rusher, the Cards released veteran Markus Golden.  In a draft where we know QB’s will come off the board with the first two picks, Arizona is in prime position to land one of the draft’s premiere pass rushers without having to move up to land him.  Will Anderson Jr. is a lock to go No. 3 overall right?  Not so fast.  One item of note is the fact there are rumors floating around that Kyler Murray is banging the table for Paris Johnson Jr. at No. 3.  On the surface, it feels like a stretch considering DJ Humphries is entrenched as the starting LT especially after just signing an extension.  However, adding another OT to replace Kelvin Beachum shouldn’t be ruled out.  The Cards’ OL has not been able to keep Murray upright as he’s been sacked 131 times in 57 career games.  Is No. 3 a bit high for Johnson Jr.?  Maybe, but the Cardinals could easily trade down with a QB-needy team into a range where it makes more sense.  If Ossenfort wants to win over his franchise QB, drafting an OT to protect him would be a great start.  Johnson Jr. has the blend of size, power and quickness to play either OT position at the next level.  He has tremendous length with 36 1/8-inch arms and quick feet and flexibility that allow him to slide effortlessly in pass protection.  He keeps his back straight and offers lateral agility and change of direction skills to easily mirror and redirect.  What may be even more impressive is the fact that he was able to put up 225 pounds 29 times in the bench press, so the upper body strength is never in question.   The power in his hands to strike and jolt the defender on contact is apparent as well.  He has the flexibility to get out and seal the edge, but also has the anchor to hold up against the bull rush.  Johnson Jr. does need to continue to build his lower half to improve his ability to generate movement in the run game and get his hands to consistently match his feet.  Too often he will let defenders get into his body which will cause problems on the edge.  He also will get caught lunging at defenders which will lead to him getting beaten.  That said, he’s an intelligent player, a two-time scholar athlete and is poised to be a Week One starter.  The question really will be where he’ll line up.  Johnson Jr. started at RG in 2021 where he gave up 13 QB hurries, 1 QB hit and 0 sacks before sliding over to LT for his junior season where he gave up 9 hurries, 0 hits and 2 sacks.

4.  Indianapolis Colts – Will Levis, 6’4”, 229lbs, QB, Kentucky, Jr.
03/28/23 – Anthony Richardson. QB. Kentucky
02/05/23 – CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State
It’s no secret that Indianapolis has struggled to find its footing at QB since Andrew Luck suddenly retired after the 2018 season. After Jacoby Brissett filled in as a bridge QB in 2019, the Colts tried their luck with a series of veteran QB’s, with Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan taking the helm in consecutive years. Chris Ballard brought in Philly OC Shane Steichen as HC after his recent success with Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts.  You can expect the first order of business in overhauling an anemic offense will be to figure out who his guy will be under center.  Will it be Anthony Richardson, who may be the best athlete we’ve seen at QB but struggled with accuracy in his only year as a starter?  Will it be CJ Stroud, a natural pocket passer with tremendous accuracy but hasn’t proven he can consistently make plays when the play breaks down?  Will it be Will Levis, the QB who has said himself that he has a cannon for an arm, but he relies on it too often which creates too many ill-advised throws?  Or could Ballard make a play for Lamar Jackson after the non-exclusive tag was placed on him by the Ravens?  Any deal for Jackson will need to be done before the draft, so until that happens, we’ll have to expect Indy’s QB will come from the draft.  I think Richardson is definitely THE boom-or-bust prospect of this year’s draft and whoever drafts him will need to be patient as he continues his development, but I think Steichen is used to that narrative working with Hurts.  But seriously, can you really draft a QB who completed just 53% of his passes in his only year as a starter with the 4th overall pick?  The bigger question will be whether Jim Irsay is willing to be patient enough to allow for the development given that the Colts haven’t won the AFC South since 2014.  At the same time, having Gardner Minshew, Nick Foles and Sam Ehlinger on the roster means Indy doesn’t have to rush to play a rookie Week One either.  The same narrative can be made for Levis who has one of the higher ceilings in this year’s draft.  He has the prototypical size you look for in a QB, has a cannon for an arm (just ask him) and can make plays with his legs.  Levis ran a pro-style offense at Kentucky with former Rams OC Liam Coen and is used to the aspects of a more complicated offense.  He was also at his best in play action, which fits right in with a Colts offense that boasts one of the league’s top RBs in Jonathan Taylor.  His athleticism and release allow him to make throws off platform with velocity we don’t see often.  His arm also allowed him to hit WRs at all three levels of the field, attacking both the middle of the field and outside the numbers.  Levis completed 65.7% of his passes as a two-year starter at Kentucky, throwing for 5,232 yards and 43 TD, but also had 23 Int.  Levis relies too often on his arm, which leads to poor decision making trying to make a throw that just isn’t there.  He also struggles with ball placement which not only led to missing the mark trying to hit his WR, but also put the ball where the defender was in better position to make a play.  Steichen will need to work with Levis on his mechanics as well as his ability to layer throws with touch because nearly everything he throws is a fastball.  Levis can sit and work on improving his decision making and touch as too often he relies on his rocket arm.  The other question about Levis is his build.  Unlike the slightly built Bryce Young, Levis is jacked.  He even posted photos of his physical transformation on social media.  He uses that muscular build to play the position like a LB.  But successful QBs don’t tend to look like him and you worry about flexibility.  Levis is said to have aced the S2 Cognitive Test, which could be an indication of his ability to quickly process what’s put in front of him.  I think in the end Levis will get the nod here over Stroud and Richardson.

5.  Seattle Seahawks (from Denver) – Will Anderson Jr., 6’3”, 253lbs, OLB, Alabama, Jr.
03/28/23 – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
02/05/23 – Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech
After trading Russell Wilson to Denver, the Seahawks appeared destined to be drafting a QB with their 1st Round pick they acquired in the deal. Then Geno Smith put together a career year in 2022, throwing for 4,282 yards and 30 TD while completing 69.7% of his passes.  John Schneider and Peter Carroll worked to get a deal done with Smith prior to the start of free agency, a three-year deal to remain in Seattle for the 2023 season. Per Spotrac.com, $27 million is guaranteed at signing, which includes his $1.2 million base salary for the upcoming season.  His deal also offers flexibility with just a $10.1 million cap hit in 2023; $12.7 million base salary becomes guaranteed five days after the Super Bowl in 2024 and he receives roster bonuses of $9.6 million and $10 million in 2024 and 2025, respectively; but his cap hits skyrocket to $31.2 million and $33.7 million in the final two years of the deal.  Pro Football Focus noted that the escalators in 2024 and 2025 are based on his performance in 2022, so Smith could make an extra $2 million if he matches those totals.  It seems like Smith is betting on himself to duplicate his performance this past season while also giving the Hawks a potential out after the season.  Plus, The Athletic has reported Smith is willing to mentor any QB the Hawks bring in, so Seattle could be the perfect landing spot for either Anthony Richardson or Will Levis as either can sit and learn behind Smith before eventually taking over the reins.  Multiple 1st Round picks and an aggressive start to free agency have me thinking Schneider and Carroll will swing for the fences with this pick.  Of course, that may not be used on a QB, especially considering Seattle finished 30th in the league in rushing and last season.  It’s clear Seattle is overhauling its DL, signing both Jarran Reed and Dre’Mont Jones to multi-year deals while also releasing Shelby Harris and Quinton Jefferson.  The cherry on top would be the addition of Jalen Carter.  You could even make the argument for a CB here.  Tariq Woolen was an absolute steal as a 5th Rounder out of UTSA as he hauled in 6 Int. and added another 16 PBU’s.  Seattle’s defense was at its best with the Legion of Boom patrolling the back end of the defense.  Why not pair Woolen with Christian Gonzalez?  I just think that a dominant interior presence up front has been sorely lacking and if Schneider and Carroll, known for giving troubled players a second chance, are comfortable with bringing Carter aboard, it could be a steal at No. 5.  Seattle may want to take advantage of its highest pick in 14 years, especially with a second 1st Round pick in their back pocket, to get a young QB on a rookie deal to lead the team.  Or they could use the top 5 pick on the best available player which would then give them some flexibility with the 20th overall pick.  Jalen Carter is the difference maker Seattle has needed up front, but after the experience Seattle had with Malik McDowell, who never played a down for the Seahawks, it seems like Schneider and Carroll have pivoted to selecting high character guys.  That’s what led to the home run they hit in last year’s draft by taking high character guys like Charles Cross, Kenneth Walker III, Abraham Lucas, Coby Bryant, and Tariq Woolen, they brought back Bobby Wagner and re-signed Smith.  I think the Hawks pass on Carter in favor of Will Anderson Jr. is the premier edge rusher in this year’s draft class with Pro Bowl potential early in his career.  He dominated the 2021 season by not only registering 17.5 sacks, but also 31.5 TFL and 101 total tackles.  His get-off is elite and he has a knack for quickly flipping his hips while attacking with his hands to flatten the edge.  Anderson Jr. is at his best when he plays wide, allowing him to use his length to his advantage and put stress on the OT to the outside, which then allows him to attack the inside in a hurry.  Anderson Jr. has a wide array of pass rush moves and is relentless in his pursuit of the football.  He can also use his length and power to set a strong edge against the run, using his length to quickly stack and shed to make a play on the ball.  That said, he’s not invincible.  Tennessee RT Darnell Wright gave Anderson Jr. problems with his length and power and Anderson Jr. has some stiffness in his hips that can limit his bend.  However, Anderson Jr. can be a game wrecker with the ability to change the whole complexion of a game.

6.  Detroit Lions (from LA Rams) – Devon Witherspoon, 5’11”, 181lbs CB, Illinois, Jr.
03/28/23 – Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
02/05/23 – Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Dan Campbell has fans in Detroit excited for the future after narrowly missing out on the playoffs and now with two 1st round picks, including one in the top 10, the Lions can upgrade a defense that was last in yards against, last in yards per play at 6.2, 28th in points given up and 29th against the run.  Going into the offseason, the Lions had holes to fill all over the defense.  The Lions could turn their attention to the secondary, where last season only three of their 12 Int. last season were hauled in by a corner.  It’s clear Detroit targeted the position as a key need to address this offseason having signed Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley in free agency to team with Jeff Okudah and Jerry Jacobs.  That was until Okudah was traded to Atlanta.  That trade leaves a huge hole in the secondary as the Lions lack a true lockdown CB opposite, so who better to bring in than the best pure cover corner in the draft?  The bigger need is a dominant interior presence up front defensively and with a draft class deep at CB but lacking at DT, if Jalen Carter is available here, it would make a lot of sense to take him here, then turn the attention to the back end of the defense later in Round 1.  You have to imagine Campbell and GM Brad Holmes did their homework on Carter, whose offseason has cause for major concern.  Campbell has changed the culture in Detroit, so Carter’s behavior may be a dealbreaker.  Sutton was signed to play the nickel and Jerry Jacobs is solid, but they are lacking a CB1 and Devon Witherspoon can be that guy.  Witherspoon is aggressive and extremely active with a nose for the football.  He plays with anticipation and a tremendous feel for the route, allowing just a 34.9% completion percentage against him along with 14 PBU’s in 2022 per PFF.  Spoon is a ballhawk who uses his eyes to take the proper angle to the football.  And then once he arrives at the ball, he is a ferocious hitter who is looking to also wrap up and drive through the ball carrier.  Witherspoon was slowed by an injury during the pre-draft process that kept him from working out, but he was all systems go for his private workout and the Lions sent CB coach Dre Bly to see him run in the low 4.4’s, which is what you see on film, so that was a big box checked.

7.  Las Vegas Raiders – Christian Gonzalez, 6’1”, 197lbs, CB, Oregon, RS Soph.
03/28/23 – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
02/05/23 – Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
The Derek Carr era is over for the Raiders and now is the time for Jimmy Garoppolo in the Silver and Black after reuniting with his old OC Josh McDaniels.  Adding Garoppolo and backup Brian Hoyer won’t keep Vegas from seeking out a QB here.  You have to imagine Vegas will put a premium on upgrading the league’s 28th-ranked defense and I would expect this pick could either be used on an edge rusher or a lockdown corner capable of being CB1. Maxx Crosby was among the league leaders racking up 12.5 sacks, but Chandler Jones managed just 4.0 sacks himself and is now entering his second year of a three-year $51-million deal.  There is no production beyond the two of them at the DE position, especially now that Clelin Ferrell, the only other DE to record a sack a season ago, signed with the 49ers this offseason.  Tyree Wilson would be a nice addition to the edge rotation and could even kick inside on passing downs and could eventually take Jones’ place in the next year or two, especially considering the latter is now 33 years of age.  It’s also no secret that Vegas is in desperate need of a playmaker at CB, especially after finishing at the bottom of the league with just 6 Int.  Rock Ya-Sin is a free agent and may not be back and while veteran Brandon Facyson was brought back to team with Nate Hobbs and Amik Robertson, Vegas lacks a true No. 1 corner and Christian Gonzalez has the blend of size, speed and physicality required to be just that.  The good news is if they pass on defense here, this year’s draft class is deep with corners and edge rushers.  The fact is that Garoppolo has struggled with injuries and is now with his fourth team and shouldn’t be considered a long-term option.  In a division that has Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson, the Raiders need their franchise QB of the future and Will Levis could be that guy.  That said, with Jimmy G and Hoyer on the roster, Vegas isn’t going to reach for a QB.  I think Vegas goes In same division with the aforementioned trio of standout QBs, the Raiders must bring in a lockdown corner and Gonzalez seems to be that guy.  Gonzalez has good length that he uses to his advantage in press coverage and has 4.38 40 speed and fluid hips to mirror and match to stay with the WR.  Gonzalez does a good job using the sideline to his advantage forcing the WR wide and has tremendous recovery speed to make up any distance gained by the WR.  Gonzalez is adept at getting chest to chest with the WR and will elevate and use his length to make a play on the ball.

8.  Atlanta Falcons – Bijan Robinson, 5’11”, 215lbs, RB, Texas, Jr.
03/28/23 – Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech
02/05/23 – Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson
It appears as though Desmond Ridder will be the starting QB for Arthur Smith now that Marcus Mariota is no longer on the roster.  While there is a school of thought that Smith may want to press the reset button and move up in the draft to target a top QB, it appears more likely that Atlanta will build around Ridder. We’ve already seen LG Chris Lindstrom and RT Kaleb McGary re-sign with the Falcons and Jake Matthews is a mainstay at LT. I think those moves early in free agency rule out targeting an OL in Round 1.  On the other hand, there is the same old narrative in Atlanta as they yet again struggled to put pressure on the QB and finished near the bottom of the league in sacks.  To be exact, the Falcons managed to get to the QB just 21 times, good for 31st in the league, which is a big reason why Ryan Nielsen has been brought in to take over the DC duties.  Nielsen’s last stop was as co-defensive coordinator with the Saints, a team that finished in the top 5 in sacks with 48 a season ago.  Maybe even more impressive is Nielsen’s track record developing DL.  If you’ve followed his career closely, you’ll know he was the DL coach at NC State, where he churned out several NFL-caliber players during his time with the Wolf Pack before becoming the Saints’ DL coach in 2017.  Adding Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree to the roster on one-year deals gives the group some veteran leadership to team with Lorenzo Carter, Arnold Ebiketie and DeAngelo Malone, but that shouldn’t stop the Falcons from adding additional pass rush help through the draft.  Nielsen is going to want to put stress on the QB early and often and you can expect he’s eyeing Lukas Van Ness and Myles Murphy here as both would bring the physicality and versatility to what Nielsen will want to bring to the table.  Murphy turned heads with his explosiveness at his private workout, but I think the nod would go to Van Ness because of the physical attributes and potential.  There’s just so much attention being paid to the Falcons’ front seven that it’s hard to see this pick being spent there.  Targeting a top-flight corner seemed to be the interesting pick here, but after the trade for Jeff Okudah to team with AJ Terrell, I think the Birds wait to take another CB.  So where does that leave us?  Well, I mentioned earlier that the Falcons will be looking to build around Ridder.  We saw that with the additions of Kyle Pitts and Drake London with back-to-back top-10 picks.  Tyler Allgeier eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark as a runner in his rookie season after being selected in the 5th Round of last year’s draft, but he took over as lead back after the versatile Cordarrelle Patterson went down to injury and landed on IR.  Patterson will be back and healthy in 2023.  Then the Falcons signed WRs Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller and TE Jonnu Smith as additional weapons in the passing attack.  Imagine adding Bijan Robinson to the fold; it would be quite the splash for Arthur Smith in what is likely a make-or-break season.  Robinson can be a three-down threat and would bring a different dynamic to the Atlanta offense.  Robinson is a well-built back with excellent feet, a low center of gravity and tremendous power in his lower half.  The contact balance is exceptional as he refuses to go down on initial contact.  When he’s not running you over, he has the lateral agility to make you miss as PFF reported Robinson created 108 missed tackles last season.  His vision is superb, allowing him to see backside lanes early and will quickly set up the defense before putting his foot in the ground to make a sharp cutback.  Robinson also has the quick acceleration in space to eat up yards in a hurry and will run by you if you’re not careful.  Robinson’s production on the ground improved each year with the Longhorns, culminating with 1,580 yards on 6.1 yards per carry and 18 TD in 2022.  But it’s his ability to be a dynamic pass catcher that has to excite teams.  Robinson is an excellent route runner, adjusts well to the ball in the air making the difficult catch look easy and has very soft hands.  Robinson also holds up well in pass protection, something Ridder could definitely use.

9.  Chicago Bears (from Carolina) – Jalen Carter, 6’3”, 314lbs, DT, Georgia, Jr.
03/28/23 – Peter Skoronski, OT/OG, Northwestern
02/05/23 – Carolina – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
GM Ryan Poles received praise after executing quite a haul for the No. 1 overall pick and the move was much needed as the roster has needs all over the roster.  Then he hit free agency and brought in Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards to overhaul the LB group, added some juice to the DL with the addition of DeMarcus Walker and Andrew Billings and signed OG Nate Davis to take over one of the IOL spots.  I think adding Davis to pair with Teven Jenkins whose play improved immensely with his move inside, signify a potential focus at RT with this pick, especially after missing out on Mike McGlinchey.  Poles and Matt Eberflus need help up front defensively, so they could also be looking for a dynamic edge rusher like Tyree Wilson, Lukas Van Ness or Myles Murphy and then there’s the possibility of Jalen Carter falling into their lap.  I just think that if Carter and Wilson are off the board, this pick will be used on one of the three top OL and Braxton Jones’ play at LT last season means he might get the first crack at the position in 2023 and given the fact that Jenkins was at his best inside and with Davis now in the fold, adding a top OT like Peter Skoronski can finally solidify this unit.  However, imagine if Poles, who was once expected to take Carter with the No. 1 overall pick, has a chance to get him at No. 9.  Chicago has done quite a bit of homework on Carter, who would give the Bears a dynamic presence along the interior of the DL.  It has to be said though that Carter was charged with reckless driving and racing for his involvement in an accident on Jan. 15 that killed Georgia OL Devin Willock and recruiting staffer Chandler Lecroy.  To further the concern, the story Carter provided the police changed multiple times.  It’s clear there are concerns about his professional maturity and teams will have to spend time with him before making a decision to keep him on their draft board.  Carter did plead no contest to the charges brought forth against him, which means, as reported by ESPN, he was sentenced to 12 months’ probation, a $1,000 fine, 80 hours of community service and will attend a state-approved defensive driving course.  This does mean the state is now barred from bringing additional charges against Carter, which means he will be expected to be on the field.  Then there’s Carter’s performance at his pro day that didn’t do him any favors, as ESPN also reported he showed up nine pounds heavier at 323 lbs and wasn’t able to finish his positional drills; this was a scene where many questioned why his camp allowed him to participate when clearly he wasn’t ready to participate and some even have begun to worry about his overall mental health with everything currently going on in this young man’s life.  If you just focus on what he did between the lines for the Dawgs, Carter is a dominant presence with a blend of power and quickness to be an early penetrator against both the run and the pass.  His burst off the ball is elite for an interior lineman and he has a knack for using a swim move to quickly dispose of guards.  He not only has great hand usage to defeat blocks, but also shoots them inside to hold the point, dropping anchor with a wide base to control double teams.  He’s physical and powerful at the point, but also has the lateral agility to get to the outside and drop the ball carrier in the open field.  While Carter’s maturity is in question, his play on the field is not. 

10.  Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans) – Peter Skoronski, 6’4”, 313lbs, OT/OG, Northwestern, Jr.
03/28/23 – Brian Branch, DB, Alabama
02/05/23 – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
It’s not often that the NFC Champions end up with a top-10 pick in the draft, but that’s exactly what happened for Philly after New Orleans traded up to draft Chris Olave in last year’s draft. Heading into free agency, there were several questions about where the Eagles would go with this pick, but the moves Howie Roseman have made this offseason are starting to paint a picture of where we expect this pick to focus.  Up front defensively, Fletcher Cox was re-signed to help offset the loss of Javon Hargrave to the 49ers while both James Bradberry AND Darius Slay are back after there was talk that neither would return to Philly.  Rashaad Penny was signed, and Boston Scott was brought back to form a RB committee with Kenneth Gainwell and Trey Sermon after Miles Sanders departed for Carolina.  Jason Kelce also announced he’s running it back in 2023, meaning his eventual replacement Cam Jurgens will replace the departed Isaac Seumalo.  What if I told you Philly will target an edge rusher at No. 10 after posting a staggering 70 sacks in 2022, a total that is second all-time to the 72 posted by the 1984 Chicago Bears?  It could very well happen, especially considering the only sack production at the DE position came from two players, Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham, who each generated 11.0 sacks.  The Eagles are bringing the 34-year-old Graham back on a one-year deal, but they need a young pass rusher to not only provide immediate depth, but also be Graham’s eventual replacement.  Something else to consider is the fact that lately Roseman has targeted Dawgs from Georgia, having taken Jordan Davis at No. 13 and Nakobe Dean in Round 3 in last year’s draft. I’m eyeing Nolan Smith here.  Smith looks a lot like Haason Reddick and can be explosive off the edge.  I think this pick could also focus on the secondary.  Slay and Bradberry may be back, but adding another CB like Christian Gonzalez or Devon Witherspoon would make some sense.  Safeties Marcus Epps and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson are gone in free agency and while Philly may like Reed Blankenship to take one of the starting safety spots, Brian Branch could feel like the right pick for Roseman.  Many don’t think Roseman would value the position in the top 10, but we could easily see the Eagles trade down and still be in position to snatch him up.  Another logical focus would be to target the future of the OL.  Isaac Seumalo left in free agency which opens a hole at RG.  It is assumed that Cam Jurgens will slide into this spot, but the heir apparent to Jason Kelce should not be considered the Eagles’ top option.  Skoronski could slide into the starting RG spot and then if Lane Johnson decides to hang it up after finishing out his contract through 2026, he can slide outside to RT.    So back to the RB situation.  We know the position has been devalued across the league and the Eagles haven’t taken a RB in Round 1 since Keith Byars was taken with the 10th overall selection in 1986.  However, this may be the year the defending NFC Champs have the luxury to use a top-10 pick on a dynamic RB.  I mean Roseman was able to bring Graham, Slay, and Bradberry back so you can look to add depth pieces and their eventual replacement here, OR you can land a top-five player in this draft who would give Philly a legit three-down back that would take pressure off Jalen Hurts.  Would Roseman really take a RB here?  It’s really not Roseman’s style, but It’s the first time since 1993 that the Eagles have two 1st Round picks and one of those is in the top 10, something that hasn’t happened since Carson Wentz was taken No. 2 overall in 2016.  I know this wouldn’t be a typical Roseman move, but he hasn’t had a luxury pick like this before and imagine what adding Robinson would mean for Hurts’ dual-threat ability.  If Bijan Robinson is still on the board here, I think the temptation would be too much to pass up.  With Robinson off the board, I think Skoronski is the play.  Skoronski is a technician who plays with impressive leverage, a tremendous understanding of angles and power to be an effective run blocker and has the feet and hands required in pass protection.  His feet are his calling card, allowing him to easily slide and mirror his man to keep him in front.  The biggest concern is his lack of ideal arm length at 32 ¼ inches, which could hamper his ability to hold up against edge rushers at the next level.  However, I don’t think it will as he’s quick and aggressive to attack first with his hands and once he has control of his man, it’s all over.  Skoronski would solidify the Philly OL.

11.  Tennessee Titans – CJ Stroud, 6’3”, 214lbs, QB, Ohio State, RS Soph.
03/28/23 – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State 
02/05/23 – Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
Tennessee absolutely needs to get the OL in order after finishing tied for 5th in sacks given up a season ago. The oft-injured Taylor Lewan was let go and the team moved on from OC Ben Jones and while the signing of OT Andre Dillard this offseason addresses hole left by Lewan; his durability is also quite a concern.  The signing of Dillard doesn’t mean the Titans will end their focus on upgrading the OL.  In fact, I think Dillard may be used inside at OG, which would allow Tennessee to look to the draft to find their LT of the future.  If GM Ran Carthon’s plan is for Dillard to take over at LT, Tennessee could be pivoting to another position of need and that’s at WR, which was already in need of improvement before Tennessee lost Robert Woods.  I get that the Titans are a run-first offense as long as Derrick Henry is in the backfield and used a 1st Round pick on Treylon Burks last year, but as the top two returning WRs, he and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, combined for just 58 receptions for 775 yards and just 3 TD.  What the Titans are sorely lacking is a legitimate deep threat and Jaxon Smith-Njigba can be just that.  Defensively, Tennessee needs to find pass rush help through the draft especially with Bud Dupree departing and Harold Landry recovering from an ACL injury.  Rashad Weaver has shown promise and adding Arden Key helps, but adding a top edge rusher is a must, so Nolan Smith and Myles Murphy have to be high on the Titans’ draft board.  We’ve also seen the Titans kick the tires on the top QB’s in this year’s draft.  Ryan Tannehill is now 34 years of age, is coming off an ankle injury that ended his season and is entering the final year of his deal while the jury is still out on whether Malik Willis can eventually take over.  Since Tannehill has been in Tennessee, the passing offense has finished no higher than 21st in the league.  Granted all roads lead to Henry, but the passing attack frankly isn’t a threat with Tannehill at the helm.  I think Mike Vrabel looks to his alma mater to target his QB of the future in CJ Stroud, a two-time Heisman finalist for the Buckeyes who has been the model of consistency from within the pocket.  Accuracy and touch are Stroud’s bread and butter, showing a knack for throwing his receivers open, dropping the throw in away from the defender and where his man can make a play after the catch.  His throws are on time to all levels of the field and while there’s talk about his inability to drive the football, he has proven to put the ball on the money with velocity to the wide side of the field.  Stroud is most comfortable within the pocket, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing except we didn’t see him attack the defense much with his legs.  That was until the CFP semifinal against Georgia, where he torched the Bulldog defense with his arm and his legs.  Stroud was able to escape pressure and extend plays outside the pocket, sliding to his right and stepping up and resetting his feet to firing a strike on one play then roll away from pressure with his eyes down the field, directing traffic and in complete control on the next.  When it came time to pull it and run, Stroud was decisive and didn’t hesitate, picking up yards in bunches on key plays to extend drives.  Prior to that game, we didn’t see much of Stroud outside the pocket.  He needs to be quicker when scanning the field as he will lock onto his primary WR too long.  A healthy Tannehill means there wouldn’t be pressure to start Stroud right away, but he could easily step in as the starter going into the 2024 season.

12.  Houston Texans (from Cleveland) – Anthony Richardson, 6’4”, 244lbs, QB, Florida, Jr.
03/28/23 – Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson
02/05/23 – Jordan Addison, WR, USC
It’s not a given that Nick Caserio and DeMeco Ryans pass on a QB at No. 2.  If CJ Stroud ends up being the guy there, then I think Houston could target his college teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba to hopefully mirror the success the Bengals have seen with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase carrying their chemistry to the NFL.  Even with the addition of Robert Woods and Noah Brown to team with the big-bodied Nico Collins and TE Dalton Schultz, the loss of Brandin Cooks creates a need for a vertical threat that JSN could provide.  The Texans also finished 31st in the league in total yards given up, so if Will Anderson Jr. isn’t the pick at No. 2, then Lukas Van Ness, Nolan Smith and Myles Murphy all make sense.  However, in this scenario, Ryans gets his dominant edge rusher with the second pick, meaning they could then wait to see how the board plays out with the three remaining QBs.  It’s possible we could see the Texans trade up to ensure they land the QB they want, or they could stay put and still potentially land Anthony Richardson. Following the Deshaun Watson fiasco, the Texans need a face of the franchise the city of Houston can rally behind and Richardson could be that guy.  I think the focus of Anthony Richardson’s game has been on the poor completion percentage of 53.8%, but much of that was due to poor footwork.  You would see the exact same throw later in the game and it’s in rhythm and right on the money.  If Richardson can clean up his footwork, there’s a lot to like with his game.  You see Richardson’s ability to avoid pressure within the pocket, whether it’s sidestepping the rush or stepping up in the pocket with his eyes down the field to get the proper throwing lane to deliver a strike.  He’s also been able to make plays not only with his legs, which is what he’s known for, but also with his arm.  Richardson can layer his throws and fit passes into tight windows and knows where to put the football so the defender can’t make a play.  It’s just not nearly as consistent as anyone would like.  Richardson’s Combine performance furthered a glimpse of what could be.  Richardson showed tremendous control of his own rocket arm, an effortless delivery, showcased improved footwork and posted ridiculous testing numbers with a 4.43 40 and a 40.5-inch vertical leap.  Richardson’s inexperience is well documented having started just one season at Florida and the film doesn’t lie, there are serious bouts of erratic inaccurate passes and questionable decision making.  But the traits are so tantalizing. Adding Case Keenum to the QB room with Davis Mills means there will be veteran leadership to help guide Richardson and he may not have the pressure to play right away.  DeMeco Ryans and Nick Caserio told NFL.com that they don’t necessarily want to select a QB and have the pressure of being the face of the franchise.  If that’s the intent, I can see the Texans allowing Richardson to clean up his mechanics before expecting him to be inserted into the starting lineup.  Once Richardson does hit the field, his ability to create on and off platform with rare arm talent and an explosiveness on the ground we haven’t seen at the QB position in some time would bring excitement that Cal McNair has been searching for in Houston for some time.

13.  Green Bay Packers (from NY Jets) – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 6’1”, 196lbs, WR, Ohio State, Jr.
03/28/23 – NY Jets – Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
02/05/23 – NY Jets – Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Well, the deal is finally done.  The Packers and Jets waited until the Monday before the draft to finally pull the trigger on the trade that sends Aaron Rodgers to New York.  Green Bay not only gets premium picks from the Jets, but also swap 1st Round picks.  The move from No. 15 to the 13th overall pick feels like it was a move to get ahead of the Patriots, who are in need of a go-to WR and an OT to start opposite Trent Brown.  Was this move to secure Broderick Jones or Peter Skoronski, or to target the Packers’ first WR in Round One since Javon Walker in 2002?  We know they also need to target a No. 1 TE with the departure of Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis, but the move up doesn’t feel like it would be to target Dalton Kincaid or Michael Mayer.  The health of David Bakhtiari is a serious concern after missing 26 games over the last three seasons.  Plus, we know he’s a close friend of Rodgers, so while he’s under contract through 2024, his days in a Packer uniform may be numbered.  Having versatile linemen like Elgton Jenkins, Zach Tom and Jon Runyan leads me to believe if Brian Gutekunst decides to go OT with this pick, it could very well be used on Peter Skoronski.  If this pick isn’t an OT or a WR, it could be used on an edge rusher and here’s why - Rashan Gary is working his way back from an ACL injury suffered in November sand he’s in the final year of his deal.  Preston Smith and JJ Enagbare will be counted on to play a big role as Gary returns from injury, but both proved they need help to be effective getting after the passer.  Nolan Smith and Myles Murphy can be options.  However, this pick just feels like it’s a WR.  Green Bay doubled up on WRs in last year’s draft nabbing Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, but after the departure of Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, they find themselves with a huge need at WR and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the perfect fit to man the slot.  Smith-Njigba was plagued by a hamstring injury that sidelined him for the majority of the 2022 season, but just put on his sophomore tape and you’ll see an explosive WR who is sudden off the line and in and out of his breaks and has homerun speed.  The lateral agility we see in his routes on tape was proven at the Combine, where JSN posted a 3.93 short shuttle, the 4th fastest time since 2007, and the 12th-fastest three cone drill at 6.57 seconds.  He also looked extremely smooth in the drills and never lost speed as he made downfield cuts.  The exclamation point was the 4.48 40 time he ran at OSU’s pro day.  The last time we saw JSN in 2021, he finished the season with 100+ yds in each of the last five games and hauled in double digit receptions in four of those games.  His performance against Utah in the Rose Bowl was one for ages, racking up 347 yards on 15 receptions (23.1 ypr) and 3 TD to help lead the Buckeyes to a 48-45 win over the Utes.  JSN would be the perfect complement to Watson and Doubs as the Packers look to add weapons for Jordan Love.

14.  New England Patriots – Darnell Wright, 6’5”, 333lbs, OT, Tennessee
03/28/23 –Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
02/05/23 – Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
This upcoming season may be a make-or-break season for Mac Jones under center and finding him weapons in the passing game is a definite need area as the team has lacked a true No. 1 wideout. Kendrick Bourne, who is a 3rd WR at best, is the only returning WR with at least 30 receptions as the Pats were paced by RB Rhamondre Stevenson, the departed Jakobi Meyers and TE Hunter Henry in the passing game.  To make matters worse, Bourne and DeVante Parker are free agents after the season.  The addition of JuJu Smith-Schuster is a start, but you have to expect New England to target a couple WR’s in the draft.  Smith-Schuster’s best years in Pittsburgh were with Antonio Brown and Zay Flowers has a similar physical profile and could fit the bill.  Plus, New England has clearly shown a ton of interest in the BC Golden Eagle.  First, it was the scouting at the East-West Shrine Bowl, then it was the contingent at BC’s Pro Day and finally they rolled out the red carpet for him with a private visit.  The other key need on offense is at OT as the team is moving on from Isaiah Wynn and could lose Trent Brown at season’s end.  I think the Patriots identified this as a key area as Calvin Anderson and Riley Reiff were signed and both Yodny Cajuste and Conor McDermott were brought back.  Reiff was only signed to a one-year deal, so it feels like the Pats will target their LT of the future here, but the attention given in free agency could also indicate the pick will be used elsewhere, especially with Trent Brown clone Dawand Jones likely available when the Pats pick in Round 2.  On defense, don’t rule out the CB position, where Jonathan Jones was re-signed and Jack Jones impressed, but every corner on the roster is under six feet tall.  Adding the 6’2” Joey Porter Jr. is worth keeping an eye on.  I just think that adding an OT with this pick makes too much sense and it’s entirely possible we see Darnell Wright selected over Broderick Jones here.  Wright has the prototypical blend of size and power that allows him to dominate reps whenever he gets his hands on defenders.  Put on the Alabama film and you’ll see Wright getting the better of Will Anderson Jr. with quick feet, good angles, and power in his hands.  Anderson has since come out and said Wright was the best OT he’s faced in college.  In fact, just one of Anderson Jr.’s 63 pressures were attributed to Wright.  His reps against Jalen Carter were solid as well, showing he can not only move with Carter, but once he gets his hands on the Georgia DT, he was able to stand him up and neutralize his rush.  Wright has started 42 games, 13 at LT and 27 at RT.  He gave up 8 sacks between his sophomore and junior seasons but did not allow a sack and gave up just 8 pressures in 2022.  Wright’s experience at both OT positions gives the Pats options on where they’d ultimately line up both him and Brown, but you can expect Mac Jones to be ecstatic to have high-end bookend OT’s. 

15.  New York Jets (from Green Bay) – Broderick Jones, 6’5”, 311lbs, OT, Georgia, Jr.
03/28/23 – Green Bay – Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa
02/05/23 – Green Bay – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
After all the talk about Aaron Rodgers leaving Green Bay, it finally happened.  He is finally a New York Jet.  Robert Saleh and Co. appeared to be a QB away from a potential playoff run a season ago, so it makes sense that the organization would target the future Hall of Famer.  So, it would also make sense that the priority has to be to protect their investment.  I mean, there are legitimate concerns about Mekhi Becton’s durability as he just doesn’t seem to stay healthy and Duane Brown is back, but he’ll be 38 years of age, so he’s not expected to be around much longer.  It’s also problematic when Max Mitchell and your best OL Alijah Vera-Tucker go down to injuries during the season as well.  Broderick Jones would bring a level of physicality to the line in New York, showing a knack for dominating and roughing up defenders, which would be music to both Rodgers’ and RB Breece Hall’s ears.  Jones has better-than-expected length with arms over 34 inches in length, fits the athletic profile after posting a sub-5.0 40 at the Combine and showcases the power and aggressiveness needed for their ground game.  Even more important, Jones excelled in UGA’s outside zone scheme with the ability to get out in front, locate defenders on the move and dominate in the open field.  Plus, he gave up just 8 QB hurries, 1 QB hit and 0 sacks in 2022 as the Dawgs’ starting LT, displaying effortless foot speed, and surprising fluidity in his hips.  Just as important is the fact that Jones has the versatility to play either OT position. 

16.  Washington Commanders – Dalton Kincaid, 6’4”, 246lbs, TE, Utah, Jr.
03/28/23 – Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
02/05/23 – Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
The Commanders came into the offseason with two key need areas, and one was addressed in free agency as Washington signed RT Andrew Wylie to start opposite Charles Leno Jr.  The other position of need is at corner where the Commanders are clearly lacking playmakers as only four teams finished with fewer Int. than the 9 Washington hauled in.  Think Joey Porter Jr.  Just something to consider - Eric Bieniemy was brought in to run the show on offense and while he has dynamic weapons at WR in Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson, they’re lacking a TE that fits Travis Kelce’s role at TE.    Dalton Kincaid’s skillset fits what Bieniemy wants to do.  When healthy, Kincaid was the favorite target of Utah QB Cameron Rising, hauling in 70 passes for 890 yards and 8 TD.  Just put on film of Kincaid against USC when the Utes faced the Trojans, and you’ll see a complete performance by a receiving TE.  He stressed the defense underneath, up the seam and to the outside, proved to have incredible hands with a large catch radius to haul in everything thrown his way and was dynamic and elusive after the catch. Kincaid finished the game with 16 receptions for 234 yards and a TD.  If Kincaid can stay healthy, he’ll be a nightmare for opposing defenses for years to come.

17.  Pittsburgh Steelers – Joey Porter Jr., 6’2”, 193lbs, CB, Penn State, Jr.
03/28/23 –Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
02/05/23 – O’Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida
Simply put, the Steelers have to get better along the OL and need to take better care of Kenny Pickett.  Adding Isaac Seumalo is a start, but Dan Moore struggled in pass protection and may be better suited kicking inside to battle with Kevin Dotson for the other starting OG spot.  I could also see Pittsburgh moving on from RT Chukwuma Okorafor, whose release would come with $6.1 million in dead cap per spotrac.com.  Broderick Jones makes sense here as would Darnell Wright.  However, Pittsburgh’s biggest need is actually at CB where only Patrick Peterson is under contract beyond this season.  Joey Porter Jr. has Steeler bloodlines as his father Joey Porter Sr. himself played eight seasons in a Pittsburgh uniform after being drafted by the team in the 3rd Round of the 1999 draft.  Now like his dad did for the Steeler LB corps, Porter Jr. would give Pittsburgh an imposing presence in the secondary.  The 6’2” Joey Porter Jr., a long, physical press cover who wants to get his hands on the WR and reroute all game long.  His 80 7/8-inch wingspan is almost unheard of at the CB position and his 4.47 speed displayed at the Combine shows he can stay with is man vertically.  While his transitions can be slow at times, his physicality will allow him to stay in the receiver’s hip pocket. 

18.  Detroit Lions – O’Cyrus Torrence, 6’5”, 330lbs, OG, Florida
03/28/23 – Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
02/05/23 – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Many feel the Lions’ second 1st Round selection should be used to continue to bolster a defense that struggled mightily.  Before continuing, I think it’s important to address the elephant in the room that is the TE position, which is a key area of need following the trade of TJ Hockenson to Minnesota.  Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid, Darnell Washington, and Luke Musgrave have all been tied to Detroit with this pick, but with the deepest TE class in years, the Lions can afford to wait until Day 2.  Detroit’s defense was awful a season ago, finishing the year 30th against the run and 29th versus the pass with their interior d-linemen recording just 3.5 sacks.  Alim McNeill has shown flashes, but the jury is still out on Levi Onwuzurike.  Don’t rule out Calijah Kancey here.  The play could also be for another edge rusher if Myles Murphy falls.  Rookies Aidan Hutchinson (9.0) and James Houston IV (8.5) combined for 17.5 of the Lions’ 39.5 sacks, but only DE John Cominsky registered 2.0 sacks by tallying 4.0.  Murphy would give the Lions a dynamic pass rush trio which would take some pressure off the back end of the defense.  I’m just leaning in a completely different direction.  The Lions are building a top-notch OL with Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell at OT, Frank Ragnow at center and Jonah Jackson at OG.  Graham Glasgow was signed to a one-year deal as a free agent, but he feels like a depth piece while Halapoulivaati Vaitai is coming off a back injury and is also a free agent at season’s end.  Then you see the team hosting O’Cyrus Torrence and Steve Avila for top 30 visits, and it appears clear the interior of the OL will be addressed early.  Torrence is powerful with violent hands and can generate a ton of movement in the ground game.  He shows off good awareness on the move and is effective as a puller, showing he can both locate and dominate defenders at the second level and can slow down and seal off the edge for the RB.  Torrence uses his hands well in pass protection and has good enough footwork for his feet to keep up, but once he locks onto his target, he’s not letting go.  Torrence has also been incredibly reliable as PFF noted he didn’t give up a single sack in all 46 starts with Louisiana and Florida and was penalty free this past season.  Torrence’s physicality and desire to dominate on every play fit what Dan Campbell is looking for and I fully expect Torrence to be starting early in his rookie season.

19.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Anton Harrison, 6’4”, 315lbs, OT, Oklahoma, Jr.
03/28/23 – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
02/05/23 – Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa
Tampa has to start getting used to life without Tom Brady and will likely have either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask under center in 2023, though there’s a chance Will Levis or Hendon Hooker would garner at least some consideration.  I just think Tampa pulls the trigger on a QB next season.  The Bucs chose to bring back Lavonte David but could still be on the market for an eventual replacement, but this may be a bit of a reach for either Drew Sanders or Trenton Simpson. DE was also seen as a potential need with so many linemen hitting free agency, but the signing of Greg Gaines to team with Vita Vea and Logan Hall has solidified the starting group up front. Then there’s the CB position as Jamel Dean was brought back to team with Carlton Davis, but Sean Murphy-Bunting signed with Tennessee, making Cam Smith and DJ Turner II potential candidates here.  RB Leonard Fournette is gone and while Chase Edmonds was brought in to team with Rachaad White in the backfield, the addition of Bijan Robinson would change the whole dynamic of the Tampa offense.  But the key is the OL. While the Bucs’ OL gave up a league-low 22 sacks in 2022, LT Donovan Smith gave up over a ¼ of those sacks while also being called for 12 penalties. Enough was enough as Smith was released and rumor has it All-Pro RT Tristan Wirfs is likely moving to the left side, opening a gaping hole at RT.  Harrison was a three-year starter for the Sooners and gave up just 1 sack and 8 QB hurries last season according to PFF.  He has good length and quick feet showing he can handle both vertical and lateral pass sets.  Harrison may not generate a ton of movement right now at the point of attack and needs to improve his lower body strength to anchor but he has the agility to pull and climb to the second level to make blocks on the move in space.  Harrison’s ability to handle LT could mean Wirfs can remain on the right side of the line and give a pair of bookend tackles for whoever lines up under center, whether it’s Trask or Mayfield.

20.  Seattle Seahawks – Zay Flowers, 5’9”, 182lbs, WR, Boston College
03/28/23 – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
02/05/23 – Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
Last year’s draft saw the Seahawks hit a home run after selecting bookend tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas and now appear set at OT for the foreseeable future.  2022 also saw Austin Blythe put together a subpar season and he has since retired from the game.  The Hawks should be hoping to strike it rich again by taking a center in the first two days of the draft.  Adding former Lion Evan Brown shouldn’t change this focus.  I think Luke Wypler would be the target if Seattle waits until the second day of the draft, but we could easily see the Hawks pick John Michael Schmitz here if they decide they don’t want to wait to target a pivot.  I think that the signing of Brown at least tempers the need to draft a center, which will allow Seattle to target another weapon for Geno Smith.  Clearly the Seahawks have one of the top WR duos in the league as DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett each eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark but the only other WR with at least 20 receptions was Marquis Goodwin and he’s now with the Browns.  Seattle needs another WR and Flowers would fit nicely in the slot.  In four seasons at Boston College, Flowers hauled in 200 passes for 3,056 yards, including 1,077 this past season, and 29 TD in a largely lackluster offense that finished 121st out of 131 FBS programs in total offense.  Flowers is an explosive receiver with quick acceleration to full speed after side-stepping press coverage and also shows a knack for maintaining speed coming out of his breaks, which allows him to create a lot of separation.  Flowers tracks the deep ball well, isn’t afraid to work the middle of the field and offers solid ball skills.  Then there’s the elusiveness and creativity when he has the ball in his hands.  Most WRs are either quick laterally or have blazing straight-line speed, but Flowers is a rare breed with both, having recorded a 4.42 40 at the Combine.
 

21.  Los Angeles Chargers – Jordan Addison, 5’11”, 173lbs, WR, USC, Jr. 
03/28/23 – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
02/05/23 – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State 
The Chargers found themselves in the playoffs for the first time since 2018 but went down to the Jags in the Wild Card 31-30. Justin Herbert led a top 10 offense while Joey Bosa, Derwin James and Khalil Mack held down a pass defense that also finished in the top 10, but the running game on both sides of the ball were the team’s Achilles heel, finishing in the bottom third in the league in both categories.  I think Bryan Bresee will get a long look here as he has the power and athleticism to hold up against the run.  If the Bolts decide to go offense, now may be the time to target a well-rounded TE like Michael Mayer or Darnell Washington, who can not only attack the seam and underneath routes for Herbert but would also be a solid blocker in the ground game.  Austin Ekeler, the team’s leading rusher the last three seasons, demanded a trade.  What made Ekeler so good was not only his ability to carve defenses up on the ground, but he was also a dynamic pass catcher and a very reliable target for Herbert having hauled in 107 passes in 2022 alone.  Herbert and the Chargers need to find a way to ultimately replace his production if they want to make a push in the AFC West, and would be ecstatic if they found a way to secure Robinson, a top-five talent who could be a target of the Eagles at No. 10 and will have teams like Buffalo and Dallas jockeying for position to move up to get him.    Robinson brings the type of juice the Bolts are lacking offensively and if I’m Herbert, I’m lobbying for LA to make a move to get him.  I’m just expecting a team other than LA to ultimately land Robinson, meaning this pick could easily pivot to the WR position where the Bolts lack explosiveness.  The trio of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Josh Palmer averaged 67 receptions for 805 yds between the three of them and tallied just 10 TD through the air.  None of those three, who all finished behind Ekeler’s 107 receptions, is known for their speed so it’s easy to see LA targeting Zay Flowers with this pick.  However, I think the Bolts actually go in a different direction.  Their WR coach Chris Beatty joined the Chargers in 2021, but prior to that, he held the same position at Pittsburgh where he coached Jordan Addison.  You have to imagine Beatty will be pounding the table in the draft room to make this reunion happen.  The 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner at Pittsburgh dominated the competition in the ACC with 100 receptions for 1,593 yards and 17 TD.  His transfer to USC for his junior season didn’t yield the same results, but that was largely due to an ankle injury that hampered him for much of the season.  Addison looked to be all the way back at the Combine where he posted a 4.49 40 and looked tremendously smooth in the drills.  Addison is comfortable working all three levels and can play both on the outside and inside.  At full speed, Addison is a dynamic route runner with the ability to make cuts and drive out of his beaks without slowing down.  He may be a smallish wideout lacking the requisite size to be a true No. 1 WR, but I think the G-men can still take advantage of his skillset in a variety of ways.

22.  Baltimore Ravens – Deonte Banks, 6’0”, 197lbs, CB, Maryland
03/28/23 – Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
02/05/23 – Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
This offseason has been dominated by the Lamar Jackson saga as the Ravens used a non-exclusive franchise tag, meaning Baltimore has five days to match any offer that he receives, or the team receives two 1st Round picks as compensation.  This is a situation you have to expect teams will want to have resolved by the draft, but it doesn’t seem like we’re anywhere closer to a resolution.  How it ends will have a huge impact on Baltimore’s draft strategy, but until that happens, we’ll assume Jackson is a Raven in 2023.  Could they target a QB in the draft?  They do have another Pro Bowler on the roster in Tyler Huntley so I don’t see them moving up to take Will Levis.  While the release of Calais Campbell could spark interest in Bryan Bresee as a replacement, this pick was always thought to be destined for a WR.  That was until the signing of Odell Beckham Jr.  Adding OBJ should signal this pick will be used elsewhere as the Ravens typically run two-WR formations and with Beckham Jr. sand Bateman on the field, how much action would a 1st Round WR see?  I think the Ravens instead target a corner as Marcus Peters, who struggled last season with 7 TD given up and a QB rating of 113.7 against, is gone while Marlon Humphrey, who gave up 3 TD and 11.6 yards per completion against, has battled injuries.  Adding a high-level corner to challenge for a starting spot is a must.  Banks is a very smooth corner with fluid hips who isn’t afraid to play with a physical edge, getting his hands on the WR early to jam and reroute.  He furthered his Round One status at the Combine after posting a blazing 4.35 40 while also possessing tremendous lower body explosiveness with a 42-inch vertical and a 11-foot 4-inch broad jump.

23.  Minnesota Vikings – Emmanuel Forbes, 6’1”, 166lbs, CB, Mississippi State, Jr.
03/28/23 – Jordan Addison, WR, USC
02/05/23 – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Minnesota has put a focused effort on the defensive side of the ball in free agency by adding edge rusher Marcus Davenport, DE Dean Lowry, and CB Byron Murphy.  While Murphy does fill a need at nickel, adding a corner on the outside to replace Patrick Peterson is a must, meaning Emmanuel Forbes or DJ Turner II could be in play here.  However, the depth at corner is strong this year, which could mean the Vikes turn to the offensive side of the ball to find a replacement for Adam Thielen, who was released after nine years with the team.  Justin Jefferson proved to be the premier WR in the league after hauling in a staggering 128 passes for 1809 yards and 8 TD.  KJ Osborn’s role expanded in 2022, hauling in 60 passes which was good for third on the team.  Jalen Nailor is expected to see his playing time increase this upcoming season, but neither he nor Osborn are true No. 2 options at wideout. Of course, all of that makes sense if the Vikings stay at No. 23.  However, Minnesota could be eyeing an eventual successor for Kirk Cousins who is now 34 years of age and is entering the final year of his deal.  Cousins has a win % of 58.1% with a record of 46-33-1 over 80 games in five seasons as the Vikings’ starting QB.  During that time, Minnesota won the NFC North just once and were 1-2 in playoff games, making it past the Wild Card just once in 2019.  Could they trade up for Anthony Richardson or Will Levis?  It’s definitely possible; I actually mocked Richardson to the Vikings in my initial mock draft.  I think if they do want to go QB, they target Hendon Hooker, though I still think No. 23 is a bit soon for that move.  Imagine adding Zay Flowers to team with Jefferson and Osborn.  Minnesota did sign Byron Murphy to play the nickel, but after losing Patrick Peterson, Cam Dantzler and Duke Shelley, depth is a must at corner, and this would be a perfect spot for Forbes who is a proven playmaker despite his lanky frame.  Forbes may only be 166 pounds, which is very slight and could mean he’ll easily be pushed around by bigger WR’s, but his 14 career Int. and 6 pick sixes are proof of his skills as a ballhawk and finisher.  Plus, his 4.35 40 at the Combine proved he has more than enough speed to hang with the speedsters on the outside.

24.  Jacksonville Jaguars – Lukas Van Ness, 6’5”, 272lbs, DE, Iowa, Jr.
03/28/23 – O’Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida
02/05/23 – Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
What a season Jacksonville had in 2022. Doug Pederson guided the Jags to a 9-8 record and an AFC South Title while also getting a Wild Card win against the Chargers, its first winning record, division title and playoff win since 2017 when the Jaguars made it to the AFC Championship. Trevor Lawrence took a major step forward leading the offense as the team finished 10th in total yards.  The defense was a different story as it struggled against the pass with the 5th worst pass defense.  Jacksonville is known to go best player available, which may actually be at the TE position as Washington has steadily climbed draft boards during the pre-draft process.  Pederson was in Philly when the Eagles drafted Dallas Goedert despite already having Zach Ertz on the roster so the fact that Evan Engram received the franchise tag shouldn’t keep the Jaguars from targeting a TE early in the draft.  Michael Mayer or Darnell Washington could both be targeted here.  We saw what the addition of Brendan Scherff made to the Jags’ O-line in 2022.  Could O’Cyrus Torrence be the missing link? Ben Bartch did start five games at LG before a meniscus tear ended his season.  While Bartch will be back for the upcoming season, Torrence would provide the left side of the line the physical interior presence Scherff displayed on the right side this past season.  On defense, I think the Jags could look Bryan Bresee here as the DL could use his versatility to line him up and down the D-line and can make an impact against both the run and the pass.  Then there’s the obvious need at corner as the Jags need to shore up the position opposite Tyson Campbell, especially now that Shaquill Griffin was released.  Darious Williams looks like a solid option and Tre Herndon was re-signed to get first crack at nickel, but you have to expect an early pick to be used on another CB to challenge Herndon for playing time and Brian Branch can be that guy.  Here’s something else to consider – Adam Stites of JagsWire brought up the fact that Jacksonville led the league with 77 QB knockdowns but finished 26th with just 35 sacks while opponents converted 43.2% of 3rd downs against them, which was fourth highest in the league.  Stites also noted that In a league meeting in March Pederson talked about improving the pass rush.  Obviously, they want Josh Allen to take the next step in his fifth and final year of his rookie deal while Travon Walker is expected to take a step forward.  However, Arden Key is gone and Dawaune Smoot is likely out as well, so you have to imagine the Jags will find another edge rusher in the draft.  If the Jags stick to drafting the BPA regardless of position, Lukas Van Ness could be the pick.  It’s hard not to draw comparisons to JJ Watt when you see Van Ness play.  The size is comparable, though Watt was 18 pounds heavier at the Combine, and their arm length of 34 inches are identical.  Van Ness posted a 4.71 40 time compared to Watt’s 4.84., but his 4.32-second short shuttle and 7.02-second three-cone drill were not quite on the level Watt’s explosive times at 4.21 and 6.88, respectively. Then there’s the production, where Watt tallied 36.5 TFL and 11.5 sacks in two seasons at Wisconsin, while Van Ness was able to register 13.0 sacks and 19.0 TFL coming off the bench for the Hawkeyes.  Now I’m not saying Van Ness is the next Watt by any means, but his makeup is eerily similar.  Van Ness has the physicality and athleticism to handle a variety of positions, having showcased the versatility to play in multiple fronts and even kick inside on passing downs, which fits well in Jacksonville’s defense.  As I mentioned, Van Ness didn’t even start, but his impact was felt whenever he set foot in the field.  He may not be as polished as some of the other edge rushers, he may have the biggest upside.  You see the explosiveness off the ball and then his ability to convert speed to power is impressive.  If you watched Iowa take on Ohio State, you’d see Van Ness overpower Paris Johnson Jr. on the edge and drive the Buckeye OT well back into the pocket.  Atlanta would need to be patient as Van Ness currently doesn’t have a pass rush repertoire outside a mean bull rush, but he has the traits to develop quickly for the Jags.

25.  New York Giants – Brian Branch, 6’0”, 190lbs, DB, Alabama, Jr.
03/28/23 – Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
02/05/23 – Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
The Giants flourished in 2022 under first-year HC and Coach of the Year Brian Daboll and he and Joe Schoen made sure to keep the backfield intact with the signing of Daniel Jones to a long-term deal and the franchise tag being placed on Saquon Barkley. Then the G-men added Parris Campbell and traded for Darrin Waller while also re-signing Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton to go along with Wan’Dale Robinson, Isaiah Hodgins, Collin Johnson, and Daniel Bellinger.  New York lacks a true No. 1 wideout and only Robinson and Slayton are under contract beyond this season, so WR makes a lot of sense here and Quentin Johnston and Jalin Hyatt could be on the board here.  Ben Bredeson is listed as the team’s starting center at this point, but they can do better.  John Michael Schmitz will get a long look if he’s here but expect the Giants to target Luke Wypler or Joe Tippmann on Day 2.  The Giants also need to address the secondary where the Swiss Army Knife known as Brian Branch could be an ideal fit.  New York saw Julian Love leave in free agency while Landon Collins and Tony Jefferson haven’t been brought back.  Bobby McCain was signed to start next to Xavier McKinney while Darnay Holmes is currently slated as the nickel.  Branch has the ability to fill any of these roles and would be an upgrade wherever the G-Men want to line him up.  You may point to the 4.58 40 time at the Combine, but game-breaking speed was never his game, rather the tape showed an instinctive player who trusts his eyes and can really be aggressive in attacking the ball.  Branch’s cover skills also allow him to line up in the slot, reading the play quickly over the top to drive on the ball without any wasted movement and is a heat-seeking missile in the box looking to light up the RB or pressure the QB in a hurry.  Branch’s versatility has been on display all season long and would be a Week 1 starter poised to make an immediate impact.

26.  Dallas Cowboys – Michael Mayer, 6’4”, 249lbs, TE, Notre Dame, Jr.
03/28/23 – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
02/05/23 – Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas
There may not have been a team that has fared better this offseason than the Cowboys as Dallas secured the services of both Stephon Gilmore to team with Trevon Diggs and Brandin Cooks to finally replace Amari Cooper as a running mate for CeeDee Lamb.  Plus, they placed the franchise tag to bring back Tony Pollard and re-signed Leighton Vander Esch while also bringing in Ronald Jones as Pollard’s backup and OL Chuma Edoga to provide much-needed depth up front.  Even with Rojo filling the void left by the departure of Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys need another weapon to complement Pollard and Dallas could find a way to trade up for Bijan Robinson.  With key pieces already in the fold for 2023 you have to imagine the Cowboys will address the biggest need that hasn’t yet and that’s at TE.  Dalton Schultz left in free agency leaving the roster without a true No. 1 at the position.  Michael Mayer was a polished blocker and a reliable target in the Irish passing attack and would be a perfect fit for Buffalo as a Y TE.  Mayer is a physical inline blocker who plays with good leverage and quick feet to slide and pick up defenders, offers a solid punch at the point of attack, then uses his grip strength to sustain his block.  As a receiver, Mayer holds the Notre Dame career records for a TE in receptions (180), receiving yards (2,099) and TD (18).  His 4.7 speed he showed at the Combine is about what you’d expect from what you see on film as it takes him some time to get up to speed.  He may never be a burner deep, but he’s incredibly tough on short-to-intermediate routes, is quick through his breaks to create separation, has powerful hands at the catch point and is tough to bring down after the catch. 

27.  Buffalo Bills – Drew Sanders, 6’4”, 235lbs, LB, Arkansas, Jr.
03/28/23 – Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas
02/05/23 – Brian Branch, DB, Alabama
The Bills once again fell short of a conference title and this offseason has seen a reshuffling of sorts to the roster.  Tremaine Edmunds, Devin Singletary, Rodger Saffold, and Isaiah McKenzie are all out and any of these positions along with a young pass rusher for Von Miller to groom could ultimately be the pick.  At WR, Khalil Shakir will get the first chance to take the No. 3 spot behind starters Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.  That said, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers and Josh Downs could all be on the radar.  RB Damien Harris was brought in to team with James Cook in the backfield.  After taking Cook in Round 2 just one draft ago, the only chance this is a back is if Bijan Robinson were to somehow fall and I doubt that’s happening.  Though a trade-up isn’t out of the question.  There’s been talk about the Bills potentially trading up for a skill position player, but what if that move is for Michael Mayer, who would give the Bills a strong one-two punch in the passing game and would be a force blocking for Cook, Harris and even Allen in the ground game.  We’ve seen quite a few edge rushers drafted by Buffalo Bills in recent years in AJ Epenesa, Gregory Rousseau, and Boogie Basham, but with Miller now 34 years of age, don’t rule out explosive pass rusher Will McDonald IV here.  Buffalo needed an upgrade over Saffold after his subpar performance in 2022 and the signing of Connor McGovern to a three-year $23 million deal.  Unless they’re not satisfied with Ryan Bates at the OG position, O’Cyrus Torrence may not be the pick here.  With Edmunds off to Chicago, Tyrel Dodson is first in line to start alongside Matt Milano, but you have to expect the Bills to target another LB in the draft and Drew Sanders has a similar athletic profile to Edmunds.  After two seasons of limited action at Alabama, Sanders made the move to Fayetteville and became a versatile chess piece for the Hogs in the middle of the defense, finishing with 103 tackles, 13.5 TFL, 9.5 sacks, 5 PBU, 1 Int. and 3 forced fumbles.  Sanders has sideline-to-sideline range, can scrape over the top and shoots gaps downhill in a hurry.  He also uses his speed and quick hands to be an effective pass rusher off the edge.  Sanders has the ability to wear a lot of hats, which would make him a perfect fit in Buffalo where versatility at LB is a prerequisite.

28.  Cincinnati Bengals – Darnell Washington, 6’6”, 264lbs, TE, Georgia, Jr.
03/28/23 – Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
02/05/23 – Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
The Bengals again found themselves in the AFC Championship and though they didn’t come out on top this time around, it’s clear Cincy has become a legitimate threat under Zac Taylor.  Protecting Joe Burrow is still a top priority as the Cincy OL gave up 58 sacks in 2021 a year after he tore his ACL, and he was dropped another 44 times this past season.  The Bengals made a huge splash in free agency with the signing of Orlando Brown Jr. to take over at LT.  Jonah Williams has now asked for a trade, but after an injury-riddled start to his career, maybe a move to RT isn’t out of the question.  If Williams is gone and La’el Collins becomes a cap casualty, a huge hole then opens up at RT.  Darnell Wright and Anton Harrison make a lot of sense here.  Then there’s the need to replace Hayden Hurst and his 52 receptions at TE.  In fact, with Mitchell Wilcox and Drew Sample both hitting free agency, which leaves Devin Asiasi as the only TE currently on the roster to catch a pass and he only hauled in two.  Even with the RT position up in the air, adding Washington who has the size to be a sixth OL on the field makes a lot of sense, especially considering je really takes pride in his blocking on the edge.  At the Combine, his ability to generate power as a blocker allowed him to drive the sled down the field with ease, something other top TE’s couldn’t do.  Then there’s the freaky athleticism as the film showed a dynamic weapon down the seam, but the Combine took it to another level with a 4.64 40 and a blistering 4.08 short shuttle that was second only to Jaxon Smith-Njigba among WR prospects.  His length is apparent, but he was able to show off his nearly 34.5-inch arms, leaping ability and body control to put on a show catching the football.

29.  New Orleans Saints (from Denver and San Francisco) – Calijah Kancey, 6’1”, 281lbs, DT, Pittsburgh, Jr.
03/28/23 – Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
02/05/23 – Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
The Saints found a way to get back into the 1st Round after trading away what became the 10th overall pick to trade up in last year’s draft to take Chris Olave.  It’s a new era in New Orleans with Derek Carr now at the helm of an offense that finished in the middle of the pack in the league a season ago and still has Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas and Chris Olave plus brought in Jamaal Williams in free agency.  Defensively, the Saints were 2nd in the league in passing yards given up, but the run defense was a different story and needs improvement.  To make matters worse, David Onyemata and Shy Tuttle left in free agency. New Orleans did bring in Nathan Shepherd and Khalen Saunders, but with just 17 starts between the two of them, you can expect the Saints aren’t finished.  The Saints are said to also like Bryan Bresee and Mazi Smith with this pick, but I fully expect Kancey to be the pick if he’s still on the board as his name has been tied to several teams within the top 25.  Kancey may be undersized at DT, but he’s an explosive one-gap penetrator with a lightning-quick first step and a low pad level that allow him to quickly put stress on the OL. His 4.67 40 time at the Combine was the fastest by a DT since 2006.  Kancey has a knack for finding the right angle to the QB, can change directions on a dime and is tremendous moving laterally to get to gaps in a hurry.  And while Kancey can be overpowered at the point of attack, he has the contact balance to keep his footing and is relentless in his pursuit of the ball.  Kancey racked up 27.5 TFL and 14.5 sacks in two full seasons as a starter at Pitt, so there’s no question he wreaks havoc behind the line of scrimmage.  Kancey draws a lot of comparisons to Aaron Donald, but that’s mainly because they’re both undersized Pittsburgh DT’s.  He actually reminds me more of Geno Atkins and Ed Oliver.  His lack of ideal size can get him into trouble if he can’t win with his quickness as there are plenty of reps where Kancy was overpowered and moved back at will.  That said, he can be a disruptive force in the middle, which should free Cameron Jordan, Carl Granderson and Payton Turner to make plays off the edge.

30.  Philadelphia Eagles – Nolan Smith. 6’2”, 238lbs, DE/OLB, Georgia
03/28/23 – Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh
02/05/23 – Keion White, DE, Georgia Tech
Philly has three primary positional needs entering the draft and the question really be in what order will we see Howie Roseman target those needs. Now that Darius Slay and James Bradberry are both returning, it doesn’t feel like CB would be the target here, though DJ Turner II and Kelee Ringo would at least warrant a look.  Then there’s the DT position, which received a boost when Fletcher Cox was brought back, but losing Javon Hargrave means last year’s 13th overall pick Jordan Davis will be thrusted into a more prominent role with Milton Williams.  Cox is back but he was brought back on a one-year deal, and I would have to imagine his days In an Eagles uniform will be coming to an end.  Could we see Bryan Bresee here?  Safeties Marcus Epps and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson are gone in free agency and Reed Blankenship and Terrell Edmunds are expected to step in as the starters, but Brian Branch would be a nice addition to the back end of the defense because he could not only become the third safety in the group, but also has the cover skills to handle the nickel….if Roseman wants to trade up to get him.  I do think Roseman will trade up, but it’ll be to target an edge rusher and you can picture Smith learning from the vets like Brandon Graham and Derek Barnett, both of whom are in the last year of their deals, before taking over the starting spot to team with Josh Sweat and Haason Reddick.   Nolan Smith looks a lot like Micah Parsons and Reddick in his size and explosiveness.  He has tremendous speed off the ball to get the edge in a hurry.  His straight-line speed was on display at the Combine after 4.39 40 and his lower body explosiveness was also evident with a 41.5-inch vertical leap.  For as explosive as he is, Smith also displays impressive strength setting the edge against the run.  He is adept at attacking blockers with violent hands, can stack and shed and uses his lateral agility and pursuit speed to chase down ball carriers.  If you look solely at stats, you’ll see the 100 career tackles, 20 TFK and 12.0 sacks and be underwhelmed.  However, Kirby Smart’s defense was all about rotating fresh bodies into the mix when he was an underclassman, but Smith was on his way to a breakout season as a senior with 7.0 TFL and 3.0 sacks before tearing his pectoral muscle against Florida on October 29th.  What was neat to see was his character was on display after the injury as he was an active participant on the sidelines during games.  Now Smith’s sack production at UGA wasn’t spectacular, having registered just 12.0 in his four seasons with the Dawgs.  But he’s already a polished run defender, playing with incredible leverage strength to set a hard edge against the run and uses his hands to separate from blocks to be in position to make a play.  Smith has sideline-to-sideline range and can blow up plays shooting gaps in a hurry. I think he has the athleticism to continuing his development as an edge rusher as he has proven he can bend around the edge, flatten out and get to the QB in a hurry and if he can develop counter moves, Smith could become a complete rush OLB.  Smith already proved he’s all the way back from a torn pec muscle, posting a blistering 4.39 40 while also leaping a staggering 42 inches.

31.  Kansas City Chiefs – Myles Murphy, 6’5”, 268lbs, DE, Clemson, Jr.
03/28/23 – Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
02/05/23 – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
The Super Bowl champs have had questions about the play in the trenches and it’s expected that this pick will be used on either side of the line. KC lost both starting OT’s, Orlando Brown Jr., and Andrew Wylie, to free agency and while Jawaan Taylor was signed to address one of the spots, it’s likely the Chiefs will use an early pick to find their other starting OT. Anton Harrison and Dawand Jones have to be in consideration.  There’s also been a lot of talk about Patrick Mahomes working out with Zay Flowers.  Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore are all solid role players, but you can expect KC to be on the lookout for a No. 1 WR for Mahomes and Flowers would make a lot of sense if they want to trade into the top 20 to get him.  I think if the Chiefs stay put, they could easily target a DT to team with Chris Jones and Mazi Smith has been rising up draft boards.  At DE, Frank Clark is a free agent and won’t be back, so targeting an edge rusher to team with George Karlaftis has to also be in play, making Will McDonald IV, Derick Hall, Felix Anudike-Uzomah and Keion White likely targets.  Then there’s the possibility that Myles Murphy could be around at the end of Round 1, much like Karlaftis was a season ago.  Murphy, who racked up 18.5 sacks and 36.0 TFL in his three years at Clemson, was once seen as a lock to be considered in the top 10 at the start of the pre-draft process, but he’s seen his stock drop after not being able to work out at the Combine or Clemson’s Pro Dat following a hamstring injury.  In a private workout, Murphy ran a 4.51 40 at 6’5” and 268 pounds which is phenomenal.  It just proves how athletic he is.  Murphy has an explosive first step and a powerful long-arm technique that give him some versatility in getting after the passer, while also displaying excellent lateral agility and the speed and motor to chase down ball carriers in pursuit from the backside.  Maybe the biggest concern with Murphy is the inconsistency.  You see flashes of brilliance followed by periods where he’d disappear.