2018 NFL Draft: First Round Mock Draft and Analysis

1.   Cleveland Browns – Sam Darnold, 6’3”, 221lbs, USC, RS Soph.

04/20/18 - Sam Darnold, QB, USC

04/12/18 - Sam Darnold, QB, USC

04/03/18 - Sam Darnold, QB, USC

04/01/18 - Sam Darnold, QB, USC

02/10/18 - Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

01/24/18 - Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

The Browns once again find themselves on the clock at the top of the NFL Draft, but why is it that this year feels different?  This is a franchise that last made the playoffs in 2002 and has had 27 starting QB’s since that time.  Head coach Hue Jackson has a 1-31 record over the last two seasons.  The answer is simple – there’s talent on the roster.  A season ago, the Browns appeared to hit on all three of their 1st selections – they took Myles Garrett No. 1 overall and he has shown flashes of his immense potential, TE David Njoku appears to be an incredible athlete at TE and safety Jabrill Peppers is developing into a ballhawk.  New GM John Dorsey made a splash this offseason with a series of signings and trades to also bring in proven talent.  On March 9, Dorsey made a deal with the Dolphins for Jarvis Landry to secure a go-to wideout; later in the day, he landed Tyrod Taylor from the Bills to take over the starting job at QB after also dealing Deshone Kizer to the Packers; and just five days later, he signed veteran RB Carlos Hyde to team with Duke Johnson in the backfield.  In less than a week, Dorsey was able to overhaul the skill positions on offense, moves that now position Cleveland to get the guys they want in this year’s draft.  Having a serviceable starter in Taylor will the Browns the luxury of not having to start a rookie QB Week 1.  The Browns have been working out all of the top QB prospects in this year’s draft, doing their due diligence to ultimately determine where this pick will go.  UCLA’s Josh Rosen, maybe the most NFL-ready QB with his pocket presence and accuracy, is not the most mobile QB in this group and there are durability concerns.  Then there’s Wyoming’s Josh Allen.  He’s a big QB with a cannon for an arm.  There are throws that only he can make on the football field.  But why wasn’t he dominating the competition while playing at Wyoming?  You can’t tell me that the lack of talent around him contributed to his 56% career completion percentage.  This wasn’t a problem for other small school QB’s like Carson Wentz and Ben Roethlisberger.  Why are we now making excuses for Allen?  That’s a big question mark.  Would the Browns surprise us all and take the best prospect in the draft in RB Saquon Barkley of Penn State or this year’s top defensive prospect in DE Bradley Chubb to line up opposite last year’s top pick Myles Garrett?  Not likely.  I’m not going to buy into the smokescreen of chatter that Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield will be the No. 1 overall pick as they just came out two days prior to the draft.  However, if Dorsey wants to change the losing culture in Cleveland, then Mayfield would be the guy.  I think this is the perfect situation for USC’s Sam Darnold, who has all of the physical tools you look for in a QB, but still needs to learn the nuances of the position before he can be asked to take the helm of an NFL franchise.  Darnold burst on to the scene in 2016 to take the reins of a USC program in peril.  All he did was lead the team that started the season 1-3 to a Rose Bowl victory over Penn State. He completed 67.2% of his passes while throwing for 3,086 yards with 31 TD and just 9 Int.  However, the hype may have been too much for Darnold in 2017 as he tried to do too much.  While he threw for a school-record 4,143 yards while completing a respectable 63.1% of his passes, mistakes reared their ugly head too often as his TD/Int ratio dropped to 2:1 with 26 TD to 13 Int.  He also struggled with ball security, finishing the season as the nation’s leader with 8 fumbles lost on 11 total fumbles.  Still, he's the top QB prospect in this draft because few QB's have the combination of anticipation, pocket presence and the ability to make plays when the play breaks down.  Darnold has the arm strength to deliver the football to the boundary on a line and his anticipation is uncanny as the ball is often out of his hand before the WR is out of his break. You’ll also see him read defenses and uncover a WR with a pass into a tight window thanks to his precision passing in tight windows.  When he’s on target, Darnold’s ball placement is on the money, getting the ball over the outside shoulder on the perimeter and putting the ball so the WR not only makes a play on the football, but can also make a play after the catch without having to break stride.  What gets him into trouble is his inconsistent footwork, where he doesn’t always set his feet prior to delivery which will cause passes to sail on him, and his shoulder isn’t always pointed to his target, which can cause an errant throw.  He has an elongated delivery, which has come into play with his struggles with ball security.  However, Darnold has shown that when he’s decisive, he can get the ball out quickly.  Darnold is comfortable in the pocket, scanning the field for an open man and isn’t afraid to come off his initial target, though he seems to be more decisive when throwing to his initial read.  If he comes off his primary target, you’ll often see Darnold hitch once or twice before the ball is delivered.  He has tremendous pocket awareness, often feeling the rush and using subtle movements laterally or stepping up in the pocket to avoid the rush while keeping his eyes down the field.  He does an excellent job standing tall in the pocket in the face of pressure while reading the coverage and finding an open receiver breaking open.  However, those passes tend to be high at times, which will get him into trouble.  What makes Darnold such an exciting prospect is his athleticism and ability to make plays with his feet.  He can elude defenders in the pocket, sometimes doing his best Big Ben impression by shrugging off multiple defenders, before rolling out with his eyes focused down the field.  He squares his shoulders to the target and gets his hips around which allows him to deliver an accurate ball with velocity while on the move.  His poise to make good decision in the face of exotic blitzes and ability to navigate the pocket under duress reminds you a bit of Aaron Rodgers with the way he’s able to manipulate the pocket and change the launch point to make a play down the field.  Darnold also has a short memory, quickly putting an Int. behind him to then come back and make plays; it's a gunslinger mentality not unlike Brett Favre.  And he’s a proven leader.  It’s clear his teammates enjoy playing with him and there’s no question they have his back.  If any of that is in question, just take a look at the final minutes of the Cotton Bowl when Darnold was forced out of bounds with a late hit; the entire bench came to his defense.  If you want more proof, how about when Darnold changed his flight out of Cleveland to be there to throw to his RB Ronald Jones?  That said, many argued that Darnold needed to come back for his junior season because his play was inconsistent.  He not only had trouble with ball security, but he had difficulty reading the field, both pre-snap and post-snap.  Ohio State’s Damon Webb’s pick-six deep in Trojan territory in the Cotton Bowl was a perfect example of this.  He missed an easy pre-snap read and threw right to Webb, who undercut the route to take it to the house.  What made Darnold so frustrating to watch at times was his inability to be accurate down the field.  He would repeatedly have a slot WR or TE open on a corner route or up the seam and would sail the ball over the receiver’s head.  A lot of times the passes needed more air under the ball to allow the WR to run under it to make a play. He’d also get himself into trouble throwing too far inside to a WR on the outside where the CB has inside leverage and can easily make a play on the football (see Josh Drayden’s Int. when USC played Cal).  Maybe his greatest weakness is the ball security within the pocket.  Darnold was so careless with the football and seemed to refuse to protect the ball in traffic.  Many of the fumbles lost came at the most inopportune times.  His two fumbles that the Buckeyes recovered in the Cotton Bowl came in the red zone as USC was driving for a score.  His turnovers were definitely momentum killers.  Some of his wildly inconsistent play could be attributed to a much more porous offensive line a season ago.  Darnold was sacked just six times as a freshman but was dropped 29 times a season ago.  He’s clearly not a finished product by any means and there’s a lot of work that needs to be done, but there isn’t a QB in this draft with more upside; Darnold’s potential is off the charts.  That’s why Cleveland is now the perfect landing spot.  His head coach is known as a QB guru and he can sit and learn behind Taylor before getting his turn.  

2.  New York Giants – Saquon Barkley, 6’0”, 231lbs, RB, Penn State, Jr.

04/20/18 - Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

04/13/18 - Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State

04/03/18 - Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State

04/01/18 - Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State

02/10/18 - Sam Darnold, QB, USC

01/24/18 - Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

This is where the draft starts to get interesting.  It’s possible the Giants trade this pick to the highest bidder looking to get ahead of the Jets to land their franchise QB.  However, GM Dave Gettleman has been on the record as saying he wants to draft a guy he envisions wearing a gold jacket some day. That’s why I think they stay at No. 2.  If the G-Men do keep this pick, there are really only two directions they can go.  Yes, Eli Manning is 37 years of age and is not getting any younger.  The thought early in the draft process was that this pick would be used on his heir apparent given the crop of signal callers in this year’s draft.  However, Gettleman has also said he wants to win with Eli and the activity this offseason suggests the Giants are looking to win now.  This pick is going to come down to two players – NC State DE Bradley Chubb and Penn State RB Saquon Barkley.  The Giants traded Jason Pierre-Paul to the Bucs, opening a huge hole at DE opposite Olivier Vernon.  Chubb is the best defensive prospect in this draft and has the athleticism to play with his hand in the dirt or as a standup DE, but also has the power to slide inside on passing downs, making him a perfect fit in DC James Bettcher’s scheme.  Offensively, New York’s running game was among the league’s worst after managing just 96.8 yards per game on the ground in 2017.  Barkley is a generational talent with a rare blend of size, speed and power that puts him among the top backs to enter the draft in recent years.  Jonathan Stewart was brought in as a familiar face from Gettleman’s time in Carolina, but at this stage of his career, Stewart is considered a role player.  Plus, recent history has shown that the presence of a franchise RB had a tremendous impact on QB's.  We saw it with Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas, Todd Gurley in Los Angeles and even Leonard Fournette in Jacksonville.  Adding Barkley here would alleviate some pressure off Manning, which was something the ground game could not do a season ago.  The Houston Texans had a similar decision to make with the 1st overall selection in the 2006 draft.  On the one hand was USC RB Reggie Bush, who was seen as a generational-type RB, and on the other was former Wolfpack DE Mario Williams.  The disruptive defensive player won out there and a similar outcome is possible 12 years later.  I just think the running game is the more pressing need and Barkley has the talent to turn the Giants’ attack around.  Barkley eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark in each of his three seasons with the Nittany Lions, racked up 18 TD on the ground in each of the last two seasons and is a two-time Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year.  He’s an impressive physical specimen.  Just go to YouTube and you'll find countless videos of Barkley's 405-pound power clean, his 30 reps of 225 lbs in the bench press and him squatting 495 pounds seven times.  The strength is evident on the football field, running with tremendous power between the tackles to run through arm tackles.  He keeps a low pad level and has tremendous balance when running through contact.  Barkley also has tremendous vision to see the cutback lane, putting his foot in the ground and exploding to the hole, getting to full speed in just a couple of steps.  He shows off quick feet to elude defenders in the hole and makes lateral cuts without losing speed.  Barkley’s quick acceleration takes away defenders’ angles and his 4.4 speed allows him to outrun defenders and take it the distance.  With his blend of speed and power, a defense’s best shot at bottling him up is to get to him early in the backfield before his shoulders are square to the line of scrimmage.  Not only can he run over and run by defenders, but he can also leap over them as well.  Barkley will hurdle defenders shooting in for the tackle in the hole or looking like an Olympic hurdler not breaking stride in the open field.  What's equally impressive is his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, hauling in 102 receptions in his three seasons with the Nittany Lions and was the team’s 2nd leading receiver a season ago.  He’s a polished route runner out of the backfield, is able to adjust to the football in the air and catches the football away from his body.  Barkley also made an impact in the return game, returning two opening kickoffs for TD against Indiana and Ohio State last year.  What might be his greatest weakness is his blocking ability as he’s inconsistent in picking up blitzes and whiffed on too many blocks in pass protection.  That said, Barkley's ability to be a three-down back gives the Giants the versatile weapon it has been longing for and it would be hard for them to pass on a franchise RB.

3.   New York Jets (from Indianapolis) – Baker Mayfield, 6’1”, 215lbs, QB, Oklahoma

04/20/18 - Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

04/13/18 - Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

04/03/18 - Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

04/01/18 - Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

02/10/18 - Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

01/24/18 - Sam Darnold, QB, USC

The Jets have to decide what they want to do at the QB position in 2018.  Josh McCown was a pleasant surprise a season ago, finishing the year with nearly 3,000 passing yards while completing 67% of his passes and having a 2:1 TD/Int ratio in 13 games.  However, there's just one problem:  McCown is 38.  Do the Jets really want to put the future of the franchise in the hands of Bryce Petty, who managed to complete under 50% of his passes last year, and Christian Hackenberg, who failed to see the field in 2017?  Given the Jets’ draft history, will this pick really be used on an offensive player?  In the last decade, we've only seen two 1st Round picks used on the offensive side of the ball, one of those being QB Mark Sanchez in 2009.  However, the Jets must pump some life into their passing game.  Last year, New York was one of just 10 teams to finish the season averaging less than 200 passing yards per game.  The last time the Jets had a passing attack that finished in the top 10 of the NFL?  2000 when Vinny Testaverde was under center.  The Jets had to make a move to ensure they land their QB of the future, trading up from No. 6 to get to the 3rd overall pick.  Unfortunately, they had to give up three 2nd-round selections, two this year and one in 2019, to make it happen.  The Jets will have their pick of either Sam Darnold or Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield or Josh Rosen.  Rosen’s lack of mobility and durability concerns will likely send him down the draft boards a bit, while Darnold and Allen have question marks surrounding their ball security and decision making.  On the flip side, Mayfield is the one player whose personality can change he losing culture of a franchise and if Cleveland doesn’t take him, it would sure be difficult for the Jets to pass on the reigning Heisman Trophy winner.  Mayfield has played with a chip on his shoulder since high school. He walked on at Texas Tech and earned the starting job.  Injuries cost him the starting job, which caused him to leave Lubbock for Norman, Oklahoma, where he walked on at Oklahoma.  After sitting out the 2014 season, Mayfield started his final three seasons with the Sooners and became the first former walk-on to win the Heisman Trophy.  He finished his career second in FBS history in passing efficiency at 175.4, third in yards per attempt at 9.7, tied for fourth with 131 TD passes, was fifth in total offense with 15,690 yards and seventh with 14,607 passing yards.  Mayfield also set the FBS record by throwing for at least 2 TD in each of his final 27 games.  He also set the Big 12 career records with 40 consecutive games with at least 1 TD and 153 TD’s responsible for.  While Mayfield may be just under 6’1”, he has a tremendous feel in the pocket, gets the ball out quickly and keeps the ball high in his delivery, which is essential if he wants to complete passes over taller defenders.  What makes Mayfield special is his accuracy.  He finished with a 68.5% career completion percentage, including completing over 70% of his passes in each of his final seasons at OU, and threw for 131 TD to just 30 Int.  He also threw multiple Int. in just one game in 2017.  Some may argue that the Sooner offense was predicated on a short passing game that padded his stats, but he was incredibly accurate when pushing the ball down the field and when he was under pressure.  Mayfield does a tremendous job with ball placement, putting the ball where only his man can get to it, and his anticipation throws WR’s open.  More often than not, the ball is out of Mayfield’s hand before the WR is out of his break and he puts it on the WR where he can make the catch and get up the field without breaking stride.  Mayfield is elusive in the pocket, showing the ability to manipulate the pocket to extent plays and buy time to find the open receiver.  Mayfield may not be the athlete that fellow undersized QB’s Drew Brees and Russell Wilson are, but he can be deadly when the play breaks down.  He’s not afraid to improvise and will get outside the pocket to extend the play, keeping his eyes down the field.  He also has the arm strength to get the ball down the field with velocity with tremendous accuracy as he does a good job squaring his shoulders to the target and gets his hips around to complete the pass.  Mayfield plays with an edge and a swagger and his enthusiasm and passion for the game are infectious.  It’s also clear his teammates would follow him anywhere.  You’ll see Mayfield running around the field wildly waving his arms in the air, reminiscent of a young Brett Favre.  Now his personality can rub some people the wrong way and I think he’s a bit misunderstood.  Teams worry about his maturity and off-field issues.  However, the only issue he had off the field was a the now infamous arrest in Kansas, where he was charged with public intoxication, disorderly conduct and resisting arrest as he was tackled trying to run away from officers on scene.  There are also concerns about the fact that he planted the OU flag at midfield in Ohio Stadium after the Sooners upset Ohio State.  I chalk that up to being a fiery competitor.  You could make the same argument for the obscene gesture caught on camera directed toward the Kansas sideline.  Of course, the Jayhawks didn’t help the situation after refusing to shake hands during the opening coin toss and for repeated late hits and trash talk throughout the game.  While the gesture was uncalled for, it was done on the sideline and didn’t result in a penalty.  What you did see after the trip to Lawrence was a different Baker Mayfield, a more mature leader.  Having McCown back means Mayfield won’t have to start Week 1 of his rookie season.  

4.   Cleveland Browns (from Houston) - Bradley Chubb, 6’4”, 2569lbs, DE, NC State

04/20/18 - Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State

04/13/18  - Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

04/03/18 - Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

04/01/18 - Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

02/10/18 - Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

01/24/18 - Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB/S, Alabama

Cleveland is sitting in a position of power holding two of the first four picks in this year’s draft.  The Browns could keep this pick and select the top player on their draft board or they could use this pick to trade back and acquire additional picks.  If Cleveland stays put here, I envision them taking whoever the Giants don’t end up selecting.  The Browns would love to have Saquon Barkley toting the rock as he could provide the type of impact that would alleviate pressure on Tyrod Taylor and Sam Darnold to perform.  However, with Barkley off the board, why wouldn’t the Browns want to take the best defensive prospect in the draft two years in a row???  Last year, they took Myles Garret No. 1 overall and this year they have a chance to draft his running made in Bradley Chubb, who racked up 20 sacks and 45 tackles for loss in his final two seasons with the Wolfpack.  Chubb is a complete player off the edge at DE, showing a blend of power and speed to not only get to the QB, but can also affect the running game.  He has easily manhandled some of the top OT’s in the nation – his speed was too much for Notre Dame’s Mike McGlinchey, himself a 1st Round prospect, overpowered Clemson’s Mitch Hyatt, who will likely be a 1st Rounder in the 2019 draft; and used a blend of the two to outclass Louisville’s Geron Christian, who has a chance to come off the board on Day 2.  He has an explosive first step off the ball and stays low out of his stance, often lowering his shoulder into the OT to quickly get to the edge.  He has the flexibility to bend around the corner then flattens out in a hurry to pursue the QB with a quick burst to close.  However, it’s his elite hand work that sets him apart.  His hands are so quick at the point of attack to slap the OT’s hands aside, allowing him to then rip through and get to the edge.  He quickly gets his hands inside to the body of the OT, allowing him to extend his arms and drive the OT back into the backfield.  Chubb also has incredible power in his hands to deliver a punch off the ball that gets his man off balance, which allows him to quickly shoot inside to pursue the football.  Chubb is equally disruptive against the run, showing the strength to set the edge on the outside and the quickness to shoot inside blocks to drop the RB behind the line.  He does a good job keeping outside contain, forcing the run play back to the inside.  He plays with leverage, allowing him to stack and shed blockers to quickly get to the back.  Chubb used his quickness laterally to contain the explosive Lamar Jackson, showing the ability to slide down the line to keep him bottled up, then offering a burst to close and trip up the QB.  He does a good job reading blocking schemes and quickly adjusting to affect the play.  If the OT blocks down, Chubb will come down the line to wrap up the RB.  He also does a good job shooting off the hip of the pulling OG to drop the RB before the play develops.  Chubb is also a high-energy player with a motor that never stops.  He plays with a physical edge, but it’s also obvious he likes to have a good time.  You’ll see him goofing off after a play and won’t ever pass up an opportunity to steal a quarterback’s towel if it means getting into the QB’s head.  Chubb and Garrett would give Cleveland a formidable and feared duo getting after the passer which would fit perfectly in Gregg Williams’ aggressive defense that is designed to put heavy pressure on the QB.

5.  Denver Broncos - Josh Allen, 6’5”, 237lbs, QB, Wyoming, Jr.

04/20/18 - Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

04/13/18 - Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

04/03/18 - Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

04/01/18 - Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma 

02/10/18 - Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

01/24/18 - Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

The Broncos ended the 2017 campaign without a long-term answer at the QB position, so you would expect drafting a QB with the No. 5 overall pick to be a given.  That still could be the case though the signing of Case Keenum to a two-year deal after engineering an NFC Championship berth for the Vikings may have allowed the Broncos to address one of their many other needs.  The Broncos have been meeting with all of the top QB prospects, so if they happen to find their franchise QB, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them make the pick here.  Denver has been linked to Wyoming’s Josh Allen and Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield, and why not?  John Elway spent time at Wyoming’s bowl game to watch Allen in action and the Broncos got to see Allen and Mayfield up close and personal coaching the North squad in the Senior Bowl.  If Saquon Barkley or Bradley Chubb fall, expect Denver to take a long hard look at both.  The Broncos released last year’s leading rusher C.J. Anderson, who eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark a season ago, and could pair Barkley to take some pressure off Keenum.  Teaming Chubb with Von Miller would give the Broncos a dynamic pass rush off the edge.   Denver also needs to keep Keenum upright, something they struggled with last season by giving up 52 sacks given up a season ago.  The trade for Jared Veldheer to line up at RT is a start, but they can still find an upgrade at LG over Max Garcia, who Pro Football Focus listed among the worst OG’s in 2017 after giving up 34 QB pressures and 4 sacks.  Notre Dame’s Quenton Nelson is a plug-and-play OG who plays with a mean streak and would be exactly what Garett Bolles needs to his right.  Bolles, last year’s 1st Round pick, struggled mightily after giving up 8 sacks last year, which was 3rd most for any O-lineman.  Having a stable influence playing alongside him will be a welcome addition and Denver has to be hoping that pairing will resemble the dynamic duo Nelson and LT Mike McGlinchey formed on the left side of Notre Dame’s line.  A line of Bolles, Nelson, Matt Paradis, Ronald Leary and Veldheer should give Keenum much-needed protection up front.  OK, back to the QB position.  Would Elway really pass on the chance to draft a QB at No. 5 considering the depth at the top of the draft class?  Yes, they signed Keenum, but a two-year deal means the Broncos could take a QB at No. 5 and allow him to sit for two years before taking over.  Plus, is anyone convinced Keenum is the answer at QB?  Last season in Minnesota was a career year for him, but can he replicate that performance?  Josh Allen is from the small farming town of Firebaugh, CA, with a population just over 7,500 people.  He wasn’t a big name on the recruiting trail and ultimately attended Reedley College before landing a scholarship to Wyoming.  Now, he’s on the biggest stage as a possible top draft pick in April’s draft.  It’s easy to see why when you watch his tape from his time in Laramie.  Allen has the prototypical size of an NFL QB, reminiscent of another non-Power 5 QB in Ben Roethlisberger.  However, it’s his arm strength that has teams excited as he has the best arm of all the prospects in this year’s draft. The ball simply jumps out of his hand, making difficult, NFL-level throws look routine.  You do not want a ball to hang up on an out-breaking route from the near hash to the wide side of the field, but Allen is able to put even the deep out on a line to his receiver.  There isn’t any hesitation in his deliver and he’s looking to sling the ball all over the field.  Then you pair his rocket arm with his athleticism and scouts really begin to salivate.  Allen is just one of six FBS QB’s with 3,000 pass yards and 500 rush yards last season, so there’s no question he can make plays with his legs.  That mobility carries over to his play in the pocket, where Allen will subtly sidestep the rush or step up to avoid the rush and make a play down the field.  His strength and size allow him to shrug off defenders and spin out of tackles, much like Big Ben has done in the league. Allen’s athleticism also allows him to get outside the pocket, allowing him to keep his eyes down the field and make accurate throws 40+ yards to an open receiver.  However, Allen trusts his arm strength and athleticism too much at times.  When he’s out of the pocket, Allen will often just sling the ball down the field without even getting his shoulders square to the target, which resulted in several overthrows of wide open receivers, or will try to do too much and throw late across his body over the middle.  When he’s pressured, Allen doesn’t always set his feet, which leads to errant throws.  Against Iowa, pressure got to Allen up the middle, causing him to retreat and throw off his back foot to the wide side of the field and Josh Jackson stepped in for an easy Int.  The question is consistency.  On the one hand, you see flashes of brilliance.  In the Idaho Potato Bowl against Central Michigan, Allen had a dominant 1st quarter, throwing for 104 yards on 6-7 passing with 3 TD.  He showed off poise to climb the pocket and avoid the rush on one TD pass, hitting Jared Scott on a 23-yard post; he was able to roll right to extend the play and avoid the relentless DE Joe Ostman and got to the edge, putting his quick release on display to hit Austin Conway for an 11-yard TD; and finally displayed his elite arm strength and deep ball accuracy by hitting C.J. Johnson up the opposite seam for a 45-yard TD, putting it out in front of Johnson and over his shoulder so he didn’t have to break stride.  On the other hand, there’s his accuracy.  Allen has a career 56.2% completion percentage.  Many have argued that a big part of his struggles this past season was due to the fact that he lacked talent around him.  This argument gains traction when you look at the fact that Allen reduced his Int total from 15 in 2016 to just 6 a year later.  However, completing 56.3% of his passes last year was actually an improvement from 56% in 2016, a year where three skill position players were on NFL rosters this past season – RB Brian Hill, WR Tanner Gentry and TE Jacob Hollister.  If you were to compare Allen’s 2017 season to Big Ben’s sophomore season at Miami, OH, both lacked talent around them, yet Roethlisberger completed 63.3% of his passes, so the argument that a lack of talent around him only takes you so far.  It’s also buyer beware for any team drafting a QB with an under-60% completion percentage.  Teams often fall in love with the physical talents of a QB and are willing to roll the dice.  However, the question always exists of whether a QB can improve his accuracy at the next level.  The results aren’t always positive.  In 2003, Kyle Boller finished his senior season with his best completion percentage at 53.4%.  However, he showed off a rocket arm during his pre-draft workouts, even dropping to one knee and throwing the football 65 yards in the air.  His physical talents ultimately won out and got him drafted 19th overall by the Ravens.  Boller finished his eight-year career completing just 56.7%.  The Titans took Jake Locker out of Washington with the 8th pick of the 2011 draft in large part because of his athleticism and playmaking ability.  However, he managed to complete just 54% of his passes with the Huskies and finished his four-year NFL career at 57.5%.  The most recent example was just two years ago when the Jets took Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg in the 2nd Round of the 2016 draft, trusting his size and arm strength over his 56.1% passing.  Hackenberg has yet to see the field and was buried on the depth chart behind Josh McCown and Bryce Petty.  There’s no doubt Allen has rare arm talent and can make throws only a handful of QB’s can make, but he will have to be consistent with his accuracy and decision making to have success at the next level. 
 

6.  Indianapolis Colts – Quenton Nelson, 6’5”, 325lbs, OG, Notre Dame

04/20/18 - Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame

04/13/18 - Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame

04/03/18 - Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame

04/01/18 - Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame

02/10/18 - Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State (No. 3 overall)

01/24/18 - Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State (No. 3 overall)

The Colts put the first shakeup in the top 10 in motion when they agreed to trade the No. 3 overall pick to the Jets.  In trading back to No. 6 overall, the Colts also acquired two 2nd Round picks this year and one more next year, which will allow them to address several needs in the first two days of the draft.  Frank Gore is gone, and promising rookie Marlon Mack is still unproven after racking up 358 yards on just 93 carries.  Mack will likely be sharing the backfield with Matt Jones, a forgotten man in Washington who’s looking to resurrect his playing career in Indianapolis.  The Colts also struggled to put pressure on the QB, finishing the year ranked 31st in the NFL in sacks with just 25.  Would Indy look to trade back into the top 5 for a shot at Saquon Barkley or Bradley Chubb?  If the Colts stay at No. 6, I could easily see them looking to upgrade the league’s 28th-ranked secondary.  Last year’s 1st Round pick Malik Hooker and Matthias Farley showed promise at the safety position, but questions abound at the CB position, especially after veteran Rashaan Melvin left for the Raiders this offseason.  That leaves Quincy Wilson, Kenny Moore and Nate Hairston as the top returning CB’s and while all of them showed promise last season, none of them are ready to be a full-time starter.  Minkah Fitzpatrick makes a lot of sense for the Colts.  However, there’s a chance Quenton Nelson is available here.  Why would GM Chris Ballard go with the nasty OG from South Bend?  The answer should be simple – Indy’s success in 2018 is predicated keeping Andrew Luck upright.  Keep in mind the Colts’ line gave up more sacks (56) than any other team in the league last year and only LT Anthony Castonzo and OC Ryan Kelly are guaranteed starting spots.  Nelson is incredibly physical, he’s a mauler at the point of attack and he’s absolutely nasty.  He’s a road grater, paving the way for the RB and can be dominant in the running game.  Nelson fires quickly out of his stance and quickly gets his hands under the defender’s pad level.  He’s a knee bender who plays with a wide base and drives under his man with excellent leverage and accelerates through contact to drive his man down the field.  Nelson’s ability to control his man allows him to sustain his blocks and he knows how to finish.  He’s also agile to pull as a lead blocker.  He pops out of his stance quickly and has the ankle flexion to make a tight turn around the edge.  From there, Nelson stays under control while quickly locating and engaging the LB or DB in the open field.   Nelson is equally adept in the passing game, having given up 0 sacks in 2017 on 819 snaps.  He uses his wide base to anchor and stone defenders off the snap.  Against NC State, his man tried to leap to knock down a pass, but he kept his hands underneath the DE’s pad level and drove back as he was trying to leap, knocking the DE off balance which allowed him to plant his man to the ground.  Nelson’s mean streak was also on display during the Citrus Bowl when LSU OLB K'Lavon Chaisson came around on a stunt and Nelson lined him up, grabbed him and body slammed him to the ground.  Nelson doesn’t always get square to his man, which does make him susceptible to getting beaten by a quick D-lineman.  However, he has the feet to keep sliding with his man to drive him up the field and away from the pocket.  Nelson is a sure thing to be a starter Week One and has the makeup to be an All-Pro early in his career.

7.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Denzel Ward, 5’10”, 191lbs, CB, Ohio State, Jr.

04/20/18 - Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

04/13/18 - Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

04/03/18 - Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

04/01/18 - Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

02/10/18 - Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB/S, Alabama

01/24/18 - Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA

Expectations were high for the Bucs leading into 2017, but the result was a disappointing 5-11 season.  Jameis Winston and company produced a top-five passing attack, but the running game finished 27th in the league and the defense finished last both in total defense and against the pass.  Tampa finally released Doug Martin and Charles Sims is still a free agent, leaving Jacquizz Rodgers and Peyton Barber as the only RB’s on the roster with significant playing time.  That’s why if the Giants don’t take Saquon Barkley at No. 2, you can expect the Bucs to work hard to trade up to land their franchise back.  If Barkley is off the board, I still wouldn’t rule out a trade up.  Adding Quenton Nelson to team with Ali Marpet along the interior of the offensive line would be a significant upgrade in the running game.  Defensively, the Buccaneers also finished with just 22 sacks, which was the fewest in the league.  This time, the Bucs would want to get in front of Indy to select Bradley Chubb if he’s still on the board.  Of course, this move is the least likely at this point as it has been tempered by the free agent acquisition of Vinny Curry and the trade for Jason Pierre-Paul but adding Chubb would give them a difference maker in the pass rush.  While the pass rush has been given an upgrade in free agency, the secondary has not been addressed, which leads me to believe they’ll turn to the draft to address a major need, especially since the Bucs finished last in the league against the pass.  Justin Evans shows promise as a future starter at Safety, but Chris Conte and Keith Tandy are nothing more than role players while the T.J. Ward experiment has come to an end.  Minkah Fitzpatrick or Florida State’s Derwin James would be nice additions to the back end of the Buccaneer defense.  However, I’m inclined to believe this pick will be used on a corner.  Brent Grimes is 34 years of age and is entering the final year of his contract while Vernon Hargreaves made headlines this offseason when a video surfaced of him smoking an unknown substance.  Production at the position was also a disappointment, as the only returning CB with an Int. last season was Grimes with 3.  The CB draft class isn’t a deep one, which means the Bucs can’t pass on the opportunity to take Ward, clearly the top corner in this year’s draft.  Ward is not the biggest corner by any means, but he is aggressive and physical on the outside and has the ball skills to be a CB1 at the next level.  Ward put on a clinic at the Combine, showing off his explosiveness by running a blazing 4.32 40 time and leaping 136 inches in the broad jump, both of which were the best marks of any Combine participant, while also posting a 39-inch vertical leap.  He likes to play up on the line right under the WR’s nose.  He’s very patient off the ball, staying square to the WR while ignoring initial movements before turning and running with his man.  He stays low in his back pedal and has tremendous footwork and fluid hips to mirror the WR’s movement.  Ward is very patient, running stride for stride with the WR, waiting for the receiver's hands to go up to then make a play on the ball.  He's in phase with inside leverage on routes up the sideline, timing his jumps to highpoint the ball to knock it away, and will trail and track WR's across the middle of the field, showing the closing speed to drop the WR without allowing any yards after the catch.  Ward has tremendous ball skills, showing a knack for attacking the ball while it's in the air, having racked up 24 pass breakups while only allowing 32% completions in his final two seasons at Ohio State.  Ward will follow in the footsteps of three other Buckeyes to be taken in the 1st Round in the last three years:  Eli Apple in 2016 and Marshon Lattimore and Gareon Conley in 2017. 

8.   Chicago Bears – Roquan Smith, 6’1”, 236lbs, ILB, Georgia, Jr.

04/20/18 - Roquan Smith, ILB, Georgia

04/13/18 - Roquan Smith, ILB, Georgia

04/03/18 - Roquan Smith, ILB, Georgia

04/01/18 - Roquan Smith, ILB, Georgia

02/10/18 - Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

01/24/18 - Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
 

Chicago traded up one pick a season ago to land QB Mitchell Trubisky with the 2nd overall pick.  However, given all the activity at the top of the draft this year, the Bears can stay put at No. 8 and land a player high on their draft board.  Chicago has to figure out how to replace Josh Sitton, making Quenton Nelson a possibility if he were to fall. While CB’s Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara are both back, Marcus Cooper failed to love up to expectations when he was brought in as a free agent last year, meaning Minkah Fitzpatrick and Ohio State‘s Denzel Ward are in play if they are around at No. 8.  However, maybe an even bigger need is at LB.  On the outside, Pernell McPhee and Willie Young were sent packing, leaving Leonard Floyd, Howard Jones, Sam Acho and the newly-signed Aaron Lynch to battle for starting jobs.  On the inside, Danny Trevathan and Nick Kwiatkoski patrolled the middle of the field.  However, according to NFL.com’s Matt Harmon, the Bears ranked in the bottom five in the league with just 193 run stuffs last season and in pass coverage, they gave up the highest catch rate (80.8%) in the league when a linebacker was the nearest defender.  This simply will not get the job done.  At 6’5” and 253 pounds, Virginia Tech’s Tremaine Edmunds is a freakish athlete with tremendous range and could line up at any LB position.  However, Roquan Smith may be the better fit in Vic Fangio’s system.  After establishing himself as an integral part of the Bulldog defense by racking up 95 tackles as a sophomore in 2016, Smith asserted himself as the nation’s best winning the Butkus Award after leading the team in tackles for the second straight year with 137 tackles, including 14.0 for loss, and 6.5 sacks.  Smith was UGA’s leader on the defensive side of the ball, calling all of the plays and putting everyone in position before the snap.  His instincts are apparent against the run as he flies around to the ball with exceptional range sideline to sideline.  Smith is quick to diagnose the play, is decisive in his movements and takes the proper angle to the ball.  Smith showed off his tremendous speed at the Combine as his 4.51 40 time was fastest among LB’s.  He uses that speed to come downhill in a hurry to shoot gaps where he meets RB’s in the hole with a low pad level to deliver a big hit before wrapping up and driving through.  Smith is also fluid laterally, works well in traffic to avoid blocks and has the speed to get inside out in a hurry to drop the ball carrier on the perimeter.  This was on display during a critical moment of the Rose Bowl.  Up 48-45 with Oklahoma driving for the game-winning score, the Sooners facing 3rd and 2 from the Georgia 17-yard line when Baker Mayfield handed the ball off to WR Jordan Smallwood on a jet sweep.  Smith was able to flow to the ball inside out and met Smallwood on the perimeter, dropping his hips while wrapping up the WR and driving him back after only a gain of one yard, forcing the Sooners to kick a field goal to send the game into Double Overtime where the Bulldogs went on to win the game on a TD run by Sony Michel.  Smith is just as impressive against the pass.  Pro Football Focus gave Smith a grade of 90.6, the highest of any LB in this year’s draft class.  His athleticism allows him to turn and run with TE’s up the seam and RB’s out of the backfield.  He also trusts his eyes, quickly breaking on the football to arrive at the ball carrier and not allow yards after the catch.  However, he does have a tendency to play the run first, which will cause some false steps in coverage, which allow QB’s to complete passes over the top and in front of the safety.  Smith was also asked to spy the QB quite a bit, which allowed him to read the play and shoot downhill to disrupt the QB when outside the pocket.  He also showed excellent timing blitzing the QB and has displayed speed turning the corner off the edge before flattening out for the sack.  Smith proved to be a factor in every facet of the game and will be an immediate contributor at the next level.

9.   San Francisco 49ers – Minkah Fitzpatrick, 6’1”, 201lbs, DB, Alabama, Jr.

04/20/18 - Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama

04/13/18 - Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama

04/03/18 - Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama

04/01/18 - Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama

02/10/18 - Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame

01/24/18 - Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame

The 49ers were a tale of two teams in 2017 – the one without Jimmy Garoppolo and the one with him. After starting the season 0-9, the Niners finished the year winning 6 of their final 7 games, including a perfect 5-0 with Jimmy G at the helm.  The future is looking bright in San Francisco as the franchise is in the capable hands of HC Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch.  What will Lynch do for an encore in the draft this season after making a deal with Chicago to trade down one draft slot before taking the player he wanted in DE Solomon Thomas before trading back into the 1st Round to nab Reuben Foster, who was still available at No. 31.  Will San Fran use this pick on another defensive player considering the franchise has used 6 of its last 7 1st Round picks on a defensive player since 2014?  The only way that doesn’t happen is if Quenton Nelson happens to fall all the way to No. 9 as he would be a considerable upgrade over Zane Beadles at LG.  The Niners entered the offseason needing to address its offseason, especially considering they finished the year with the 22nd-ranked pass defense and picked off just 10 passes the entire season.  Rashard Robinson is now with the Jets, while Dontae Johnson is a free agent and is not expected back.  Ahkello Witherspoon turned in a solid rookie season and shows promise as a starter.  Richard Sherman was signed to man the other side, but can he return to form after tearing his Achilles?  The questions about the corner position are forcing safety Jimmie Ward to take reps at CB again and with Ward splitting time at both positions and SS Eric Reid a free agent who may not be back, the safety position is up in the air.  Clearly the 49ers must solidify the secondary.  Enter the Swiss Army Knife of the secondary in Alabama’s Minkah Fitzpatrick, who played every position in the secondary for the Crimson Tide and filled the stat sheet for the Crimson Tide, finishing his three-year career with 171 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss, 5 sacks, 9 Int., two of which were returned for TD, 16 pass breakups and 2 forced fumbles.  It's that kind of versatility that he would bring to the back end of the defense. Fitzpatrick is also just the third player in history to win the Bednarik and Thorpe Awards in the same season, joining elite company in future Hall of Famer Charles Woodson (1997) and seven-time Pro Bowler Patrick Peterson (2010).  Fitzpatrick has a high football IQ and his knack for diagnosing plays, reading routes and reacting quickly is proof he spends countless hours studying game film.  Fitzpatrick is savvy in coverage.  He has some stiffness in his hips, but he is still able to blanket his man without allowing any separation because he’s already anticipating the route.  In off coverage, Fitzpatrick will let the receiver run the route, but puts himself in position to drive quickly on the football and undercut the route to make a play on the football.  Against Clemson, Fitzpatrick read a screen pass to the running back, shot past LT Mitch Hyatt and got outside to get a hand on the ball  And in the National Championship game against Georgia, he blitzed off the edge to the QB before reading the swing pass to Nick Chubb out of the backfield, forcing him to stop on a dime and get outside to drop Chubb for a loss.  He’s also aggressive in the box against the run, quickly diagnosing plays and knifing into the backfield to make a play on the ball.  Fitzpatrick shoots holes quickly between the tackles and breaks down under control in space.  He wraps up well and does not allow the ball carrier to fall forward.  On a 3rd down against Auburn, Fitzpatrick spun off Nate Craig-Myers’ block on the outside to quickly drop Eli Stove for a loss on a jet sweep to the perimeter.  Fitzpatrick’s instincts spill over to rushing the passer as he has a knack for timing his blitzes well to quickly disrupt the play and get to the QB.  He has shown he can bend off the edge and is physical enough to run through RB and HB blocks to affect the passer.  What could cause Fitzpatrick to fall a bit was his lack of overall explosiveness at the Combine.  His straight speed was solid as he ran a respectable 4.46 40, but his vertical leap of 33 inches and broad jump at 121 inches were both very average among defensive backs.  That said, Fitzpatrick can be an immediate starter at CB but can also play Safety in base defense or LB in sub packages.  Expect the Niners to play him all over the field.

10.  Oakland Raiders – Tremaine Edmunds, 6'5", 253lbs, LB, Virginia Tech, Jr.

04/20/18 - Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

04/13/18 - Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

04/03/18 - Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

04/01/18 - Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
02/10/18 - Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

01/24/18 - Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

The Raiders were expected to take the next step and contend for an AFC Championship in 2017.  However, the end result was a disappointing 6-10 record that cost Jack Del Rio his job.  Jon Gruden is back with the Silver and Black and you know he'll be looking for some athletes on the defensive side of the ball.  Expect Gruden to look for upgrades at the LB position as there is little at the position beyond Bruce Irvin, who finished second on the team in sacks with 8.0 last year.  I would expect that a tall, rangy OLB like Tremaine Edmunds would immediately catch Gruden’s eye.  As a 19-year-old junior, Edmunds amassed 108 tackles, 14.5 behind the line, and 5.5 sacks.  He's a lean 253 pounds on a 6'5" frame and he's young, meaning you can expect this kid to put on more size without compromising his athleticism.  Edmunds has tremendous length (34 ½-inch arms) that allows him to quickly get off blocks and has the lateral quickness to scrape and stalk with ease.  He's a sideline-to-sideline player with tremendous range and change of direction skills.  Teams have to run at him because otherwise, he’ll turn and run and chase down the ball carrier from behind.  Edmunds is a fluid mover with the ability to cover RB's and TE's and uses his length to disrupt the pass.  Edmunds can be a playmaker at the next level, making him a nice fit alongside All-Pro Khalil Mack. ​

11.  Miami Dolphins – Vita Vea, 6’4”, 347lbs DT, Washington

04/20/18 - Vita Vea, DT, Washington

04/13/18 - Vita Vea, DT, Washington

04/03/18 - Vita Vea, DT, Washington

04/01/18 - Vita Vea, DT, Washington
02/10/18 - Roquan Smith, ILB, Georgia

01/24/18 - Roquan Smith, ILB, Georgia

The Dolphins really should be looking at one of two prospects here at No. 11.  Adam Gase has come out in the media and said the safety tandem of Reshad Jones and T.J. McDonald didn’t work out quite as expected.  Granted, Jones was named to his second Pro Bowl last season and McDonald filled in admirably after serving an eight-game suspension for violating the NFL’s Personal Conduct Policy.  However, the two play a similar brand of football in the box near the line of scrimmage.  What was lacking was a center fielder patrolling the back end of the defense.  This could allow the Fins to use McDonald in a role similar to how the Cardinals use Deone Bucannon.  The question is whether Miami feels that Derwin James could be that center field presence on the back end.  Even if the Dolphins decide to move on from McDonald, James is such a similar player to Jones that they run the risk of having a similar outcome.  That’s why I think Miami finds a safety to patrol deep later in the draft, which will allow them to focus on the defensive front, specifically inside as they must address the void left by Ndamukong Suh, who signed a one-year deal with the Rams after being released this offseason.  It's incredible to think the mammoth Vea was once a high school RB when you first see him step onto the field.  Then you see how agile this freakish NT is and you begin to understand why he draws comparisons to Haloti Ngata.  He put on an impressive performance for a man his size at the Combine, though his day was cut short by a hamstring injury. Vea still ran a 5.10 40 time, which is incredibly fast for a man 6’4” and 347 pounds.  He also showed off his strength by posting 41 reps of 225 pounds in the bench press.  His performance reminded me of Dontari Poe, who at 6’4” and 346 pounds ran a 4.98 40 and had 44 reps in the bench press and ultimately the Chiefs selected him 11th overall in the 2012 draft.  The comparison doesn’t end there though as Vea and Poe posted similar stats in their three-year college careers – Vea tallied 99 tackles, 15.0 TFL, 9.5 sacks and 5 pass breakups with the Huskies while Poe finished with 101 tackles, 21 TFL, 5.0 sacks, 4 pass breakups while at Memphis.  Vea also has similar raw power and incredible explosiveness and agility for his size. He's very sudden off the ball, using a quick burst and an arm over move to get early penetration.  He's also very stout at the point of attack, using his size and power to take on multiple blockers.  He has tremendous power in his hands to drive his man back and also does a good job standing up his man off the snap, then shedding the block to disrupt run plays behind the line.  Don't underestimate his lateral quickness though, as Vea can move down the line to chase the ball down to the perimeter.  The Dolphins now lack a space eater who can be an interior presence against both the run and the pass, which is why Vea seems like the pick here.

12.  Buffalo Bills (from Cincinnati) – Josh Rosen, 6’4”,226lbs, QB, UCLA, Jr.

04/20/18 - Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

04/13/18 - Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

04/03/18 - Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

04/01/18 - Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
02/10/18 - Billy Price, OG/C, Ohio State (No. 21 overall)

01/24/18 - Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa (No. 21 overall)

The Bills ended a 17-year playoff drought last season under first-year head coach Sean McDermott.  The Bills Mafia now have lofty expectations for the franchise, which is a big reason why Buffalo sent one of their two 1st Round picks to Cincinnati along with LT Cordy Glenn to secure the 12th overall pick.  The only possible explanation for climbing the draft board is to get into contention for the QB sweepstakes.  At No. 12, the Bills could very well be on the outside looking in, so there’s a chance we can see another move to get into the top 10.  Do Bills fans really want to see their franchise draft another QB in Round 1 considering the last two, E.J. Manuel in 2013 and J.P. Losman in 2004, were both major busts?  A.J. McCarron was signed as a free agent to replace Tyrod Taylor, who was traded to Cleveland early this offseason.  If anyone thinks McCarron is a long-term option at QB, think again. McCarron has played in just 11 games during his four years in Cincinnati, though he did put together a seven-game stretch that saw him complete 66.4% of his passes with 854 yards and 6 TD to just 2 Int. while filling in for Andy Dalton.  Not exactly the body of work to be overly confident about. McCarron’s two-year deal worth $10 million has an out after the 2018 season, where they would take on $2 million in dead money but have a cap savings of $5 million.  I can see Buffalo starting McCarron in 2018 to allow the rookie to sit and learn.  If the rookie struggles with the learning curve beyond that, McCarron will be under contract for another year.  However, if the rookie is ready to go in 2019, they can move on from McCarron and hand over the reins to their 1st Round pick.  I think when it’s all said and done, the Bills will get their QB in this draft.  While there’s a chance Buffalo will sit here and hope to land Lamar Jackson, I can see the Bills packaging this pick with No. 22 overall to trade up to No. 6, which would put them in position to land the most NFL-ready QB in this draft in UCLA’s Josh Rosen, who is fundamentally sound, with good mechanics, polished footwork and a quick release.  Rosen also has the arm strength to make all of the NFL throws.  However, what is most impressive is his command of the offense.  Rosen is in complete control at the line of scrimmage and he just knows where to go with the football.  He reads the defense in front of him and will make checks at the line of scrimmage and does a good job going through progressions to find the open man.  When he’s balanced and in rhythm, he’s deadly accurate and the ball is out in a hurry.  He has the anticipation to throw to a WR before he's even out of his break and has the ball placement to put the ball where only his man can get to it.  Rosen may not be the best athlete of the bunch, but his poise in the pocket is evident, keeping his eyes down the field as he maneuvers the pocket, buying time by sidestepping the rush and avoiding defenders.  Give Rosen a clean pocket and he’ll pick you apart, but if pressure is in his face, that’s when Rosen forces the football and tries to do too much.  Rosen's outspoken personality may rub some organizations the wrong way, but it might be a fit dealing with the New York media.  Some question his heart, but all you have to do is pop in the game film of the Bruins' 45-44 come-from-behind victory over Texas A&M and you'll see all you need to know.  Down 24 with just eight minutes to play, Rosen orchestrated a comeback that culminated in a 10-yard fade pass to Jordan Lasley in the end zone with 44 seconds to play.  The biggest concern should actually be his durability.  In 2016, Rosen missed the second half of the year with a season-ending shoulder injury. While he did return to throw for over 4,000 yards a year later, Rosen sustained two concussions in one season.  And when you look at Rosen physically, you wonder whether his slight frame will be able to hold up against the rigors of the NFL, especially considering he’s not very elusive and is more of a pocket passer.  Drafting Rosen would allow the Bills to secure their QB of the future.

 13.  Washington Redskins - Derwin James, 6’3”, 215lbs, S, Florida State, RS Soph.

04/20/18 - Derwin James, S, Florida State

04/13/18 - Derwin James, S, Florida State

04/03/18 - Derwin James, S, Florida State

04/01/18 - Derwin James, S, Florida State
02/10/18 - Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama

01/24/18 - Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

The Redskins ended the QB talk before the offseason really got going when they traded for Alex Smith then signed him to a four-year $94 million extension.  You have to expect this pick will now shift to the defensive side if the ball, where the Skins have needs up front and in the secondary.  Washington was dead last against the run a season ago, so you can expect Washington to look for a presence along the interior of the line.  Vita Vea or Alabama’s Da’Ron Payne would be a nice addition to make things difficult to run against.  The Skins also need a presence along the back end of the defense that can both play in the box against the run and over the top versus the pass.  After trading Su’a Cravens to Denver, it’s clear that Washington will be looking for a physical presence.  Derwin James would give the Redskins the presence their defense is clearly lacking.  His style of play is reminiscent of the late great Sean Taylor, one of the most beloved in Redskins history.  James is a freakish athlete with a high football IQ and always seems to put himself in position to make a play on the football.  James burst onto the college football scene as a true freshman in 2015, earning Freshman All-America honors after posting impressive numbers in his first year with the ‘Noles.  James finished his freshman season with 91 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 4 pass breakups, 4 forced fumbles and 2 fumble recoveries.  He showed excellent range over the top, covering a lot of ground before arriving at the ball with bad intentions.  He also played a hybrid linebacker position in the box against the run.  His 2016 season was limited to just two games after he tore his lateral meniscus in the third quarter against Charleston Southern.  James made it all the way back in 2017, but he was used more in the box than as a traditional safety.  As a result, James seemed hesitant and didn’t always trust his reads like he did in his true Freshman season.  You also saw inconsistent footwork when tackling ball carriers, as there were times he’d find himself on his heels, which would cause him to lose his balance on contact and then give up extra yards to the RB.  You have to hope that all James needs is more time on the field to be all the way back.  When completely healthy, James is exceptional in the box and is a violent hitter when he arrives at the football. 

14.  Green Bay Packers – Marcus Davenport, 6’5”, 264lbs, DE, UTSA

04/20/18 - Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA

04/13/18 - Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA

04/03/18 - Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA

04/01/18 - Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA
02/10/18 - Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA

01/24/18 - Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

Expect Green Bay to be on the market for an edge rusher early in this year's draft. Clay Matthews is simply not the same player he was just a few years ago. While he led the team with 7.5 sacks last season, it was his third straight year without registering double-digit sacks. Now he's in the final year of his contract and his future with the Pack is in question. On the other side is Nick Perry, who has racked up 18 sacks over the last two seasons, but he has also battled injuries throughout his career and has yet to play a full season since he entered the league in 2012. If the Packers don’t go after a pass rusher, they need to address the RT position as Bryan Bulaga has another torn ACL and may not be ready for the start of the season.  Notre Dame’s Mike McGlinchey is the best OT in this draft and is best suited as RT.  However, if they want McGlinchey, expect Green Bay to trade down.  I think at the end of the day, an improved pass rush is paramount.  Marcus Davenport is one of the most talked about prospects in this year's draft. Davenport came to UTSA as a skinny 195-pound kid but is leaving the Roadrunners as the program’s all-time leader in tackles for loss (38.0), sacks (22.0) and QA hurries (21).  He punctuated his final season in San Antonio by being named the 2017 C-USA Defensive Player of the Year after filling up the stat sheet with 55 tackles, 17.5 for loss, 8.5 sacks,8 QB hurries, 4 pass breakups, 3 forced fumbles and a fumble return for TD.  The meteoric rise up draft boards isn't quite to the level of Ziggy Ansah's in 2013, but it's close. Davenport's play at the Senior Bowl was the object of much scrutiny. He didn't make enough splash plays in practice; he was trying to rush the passer from the inside too much; he looks raw and lacks technique. That may have been the case, but Davenport also was able to shine on Game Day, where he got Pittsburgh OT Brian O'Neill o􀁼 balance which allowed him to shoot in and sack Baker Mayfield and later had a scoop and score of 20 yards on a fumble by Nebraska QB Tanner Lee. Davenport is scheme versatile, having played both with his hand in the ground and in a two-point stance off the edge, though he was more effective as a stand-up pass rusher. The good news is new DC Mike Pettine runs a hybrid scheme that can morph from a 3-4 to a 4-3 on a moment's notice. Davenport is at his best when he's able to come off the edge and rush the passer. He has an explosive burst and has surprising flexibility to bend around the corner coming off the ball. He utilizes his long wingspan to engage the OT early and uses quick hands to get off the block.  Davenport is able to bend around the edge and can dip and rip to turn the corner, then flattens out and showcases his speed to close quickly on the football. He has a great motor and is relentless in his pursuit of the QB.  When Davenport plays with leverage, he displays an impressive bull rush, converting speed to power, easily getting under the OT’s pad level to walk him back into the pocket.  Davenport is still learning the nuances of the position, especially against the run, and relied on his athleticism to bail him out of trouble.  He often gets fooled on run plays, finding himself crashing down to play the ball carrier looking to blow up the run and would get caught inside, giving up a big play by losing contain.  He’ll have to remain disciplined and keep outside contain or he’s bound to give up big plays.  Davenport will struggle getting off blocks with an inside rush if he doesn't win off the ball.  He’ll get overpowered at the point of attack and can be driven back off the ball when his pad level gets too high.  I think Davenport has a high ceiling but is still raw and will need to continue to develop his game at the next level.  That said, a player with his length and athleticism don’t come around every day, which means he’s not likely getting out of the first 20 picks.  

15.  Arizona Cardinals – Lamar Jackson, 6’2”, 216lbs, QB, Louisville, Jr.

04/20/18 - Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

04/13/18 - Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

04/03/18 - Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

04/01/18 - Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
02/10/18 - Connor Williams, OT, Texas

01/24/18 - Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

Cardinal fans knew the day would be coming when Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald would be moving on from the game of football.  Palmer made his retirement official after the 2017 season, ending a 14-year career that saw him spend his final five seasons in Arizona.  Fitzgerald, the ageless wonder at WR who is a surefire first ballot Hall of Famer, is around for at least one more year after signing a one-year deal to remain with the Cardinals for the 2018 season.  We’ve already seen the Cardinals sign the oft-injured Sam Bradford to be a short-term option at QB and Mike Glennon was brought in as an insurance policy should Bradford go down.  However, neither is considered a long-term option.  Both are signed to two-year deals, which would give a young QB time to settle in.  The WR position is in need of an overhaul as the Cards must plan for life after Larry Fitz is gone, but with two of their top WR’s from a season ago, Jaron Brown and John Brown, leaving via free agency, there is a sense of urgency to give whoever is under center more weapons in the passing game.  That’s why you can’t rule out Alabama’s Calvin Ridley here as he’s the clear No. 1 WR in this draft class.  However, Ridley lacked explosion at the Combine, which is concerning when selecting this high, and with a draft loaded with wideouts coming off the board o Day Two and early on Day Three, the Cardinals can wait and still pick up an impact WR.  That’s why I think Arizona looks to find their QB of the future.  The question for GM Steve Keim will be whether he can land his signal caller at No. 15 or if he’ll need to move up to get him.  New head coach Steve Wilks was previously with Carolina and was able to watch Cam Newton and see the impact that a superior athlete can make on the QB position.  Now he has the opportunity to bring in his own Heisman Trophy winner to lead the Cardinals.  I think Lamar Jackson is the perfect fit for Arizona.  Can we end the conversation about Jackson playing any other position other than QB?  I honestly thought by not running the 40 at the Combine or his Pro Day forced teams to consider him as a QB, which is what they should be doing.  Jackson burst on the scene as a true freshman in 2015.  While he only completed just 54.1% of his passes and threw for 12 TD to 8 Int. Jackson showed off his athleticism as a runner, finishing with 960 yards on the ground with 11 rushing TD.  It was said that Jackson was not familiar with the playbook as he came from a high school that did not even have a playbook.  What makes that so incredible is the leap he made as a Sophomore, as he threw for 3,543 yards on 56.2% passing with 30 TD to just 9 Int.  He was nearly untouchable on the ground, rushing for a school record 1,571 yards and 21 TD.  He went on to win the Heisman Trophy, beating out Deshaun Watson to become the 32nd QB to win the award.  Now, the 2016 campaign was not without some hardship, as Jackson completed just 48.2% in Louisville’s final three games, all losses.  As dynamic as Jackson was, he lacked polish as a passer; he didn’t seem to see the entire field; would lock onto WR’s and wouldn’t go through progressions; and he lacked pocket presence, often taking a sack because he didn’t feel the rush and held onto the ball too long.  However, what you saw from Jackson in 2017 was a more confident passer who would hang in the pocket rather than look to run the first chance he got.  Jackson always had a cannon for an arm as the ball would snap off his hand quickly with the flick of the wrist.  However, he improved his touch, fitting passes into tight windows.  Jackson suddenly was more patient with the football and threw with anticipation, throwing his WR open, and he would place the ball where the receiver could make a play after the catch.  The problem with Jackson now is consistency.  He finished his junior season completing 59.1% of his passes for 3,660 yards and 30 TD with 10 Int. and rushed for 1,601 yards and 18 TD.  However, Jackson would too often sail passes over his WR’s heads on routes running away from him and would often throw the ball too far inside, allowing the defender to make a play on the football.  There is no question Jackson is dynamic as a runner with incredibly quick acceleration to full speed, where he runs away from defenders in the open field.  Jackson is very loose-hipped in the open field, allowing him to juke and weave through traffic while making lateral cuts to elude defenders without losing speed.  His athleticism and tremendous arm strength have drawn comparisons to Michael Vick.  Everyone wants to beat up Jackson because of his 57.0% career completion percentage, but those same critics fail to remember that Vick completed just 56.0% of his passes in his two seasons at Virginia Tech in 1999-2000.  Just like Vick, Jackson is a playmaker who can do things on the football field that leave you shaking your head.  I think Arizona is the perfect landing spot for Jackson.  You’ve seen the progress he’s made as a passer in his three seasons at Louisville.  Give him a chance to develop behind a veteran QB like Sam Bradford and learn from the likes of Larry Fitzgerald.  Jackson just might surprise us all one more time.

16.  Baltimore Ravens – Mike McGlinchey 6’8”, 309lbs, OT, Notre Dame

04/20/18 - Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

04/13/18 - Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

04/03/18 - Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

04/01/18 - Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
02/10/18 - Orlando Brow, OT, Oklahoma

01/24/18 - Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

Baltimore found itself on the outside looking in on the playoff picture for the third year in a row under John Harbaugh after a 9-7 record.  The Ravens had the 12th-ranked defense and surprisingly had the 11th-best rushing attack while using a running back-by-committee approach, but the passing game let them down.  The 29th-ranked unit lacked explosive plays as they finished at the bottom with just 29 pass plays of over 20 yards and only three teams had fewer than their 5 plays of 40+ yards.  Joe Flacco is under contract through the 2021 season, so it’s safe to say he’s not going anywhere just yet, meaning the Ravens will be looking to add help.  Baltimore desperately needs to overhaul its receiving corps, especially since four of its five top receivers from a year ago (TE Benjamin Watson, WR’s Mike Wallace and Jeremy Maclin and RB Danny Woodhead) are no longer with the team and the fifth is RB Javorius Allen.  The top returning WR is Chris Moore, who hauled in just 18 passes for 248 yards and 3 TD in 2017.  It was clear the Ravens identified the WR position as a key area of need as it signed Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead in free agency to temper the need for a WR here, though Calvin Ridley does make a lot of sense here.  Baltimore is also on the market for a RT after declining the team option of Austin Howard.  Ronnie Stanley and Mike McGlinchey were bookend tackles at Notre Dame for two seasons before Stanley became the 6th overall pick of the 2016 draft.  The Ravens have a chance to reunite the two, which bodes well for the health of Joe Flacco.  McGlinchey has been a mainstay on the Irish O-line, playing in all 51 of Notre Dame's games over the past four seasons. He started his first game as a redshirt freshman in the Music City Bowl against LSU and put together a string of starting 38 straight games to finish his collegiate career.  McGlinchey has the prototypical size and length required to play the OT position at the next level. He offers good agility, often moving like a TE when he's out in front of the play. McGlinchey quickly climbs to the second level to seal off his man in the open field and create more running room for the back. When he pulls, he's always under control and does a good job lining up the defender. He has pretty quick hips on combo blocks, turning to his right to block down on the DT, then getting back around to pick up the LB off the edge. He's at his best in the run game when his pad level is low and he can get his hands quickly on the defender. This will allow him to control his man and drive him all the way down the line. However, McGlinchey's pad level will get too high and will be slow to engage the defender with his hands, which limits his effectiveness as a run blocker. As a pass protector, McGlinchey is quick to get out of his stance and usually keeps his feet under him with an effortless kick slide. He's also effective when he keeps his hands active early. He faced Bradley Chubb this season and was at his best when he fired off the ball early, remained balanced and got his hands on Chubb early, allowing him to mirror him with quick feet laterally and easily shut down secondary moves. However, Chubb's speed off the ball forced McGlinchey to open up too early and lost the hand battle, which forced him to lunge and lean and got himself beat.  McGlinchey also found it difficult to drive Chubb back off the ball, an indication that McGlinchey needs to add strength to be effective at the next level. He's much more effective on the outside when he initiates the contact and doesn't allow the defender to get to the edge. Even when McGlinchey shuts down the outside rush by taking his man up the field, he will struggle with the secondary moves back inside to the QB. McGlinchey has a tendency to want to hand fight and not move his feet, which will then cause him to lean and lunge at the defender. He has to work on keeping his feet under himself and make sure his power step to the inside is more effective in cutting off the defender. I think McGlinchey has the capability to be a starting RT in the league, but he has to refine his game to be consistent in all phases to succeed at the next level.

17.  Los Angeles Chargers – Da’Ron Payne, 6’2”, 311lbs, DT, Alabama, Jr.

04/20/18 - Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama

04/13/18 - Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama

04/03/18 - Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama

04/01/18 - Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama
02/10/18 - Vita Vea, DT, Washington

01/24/18 - Vita Vea, DT, Washington

The Chargers missed the playoffs for the fourth season in a row after going 9-7, which put them in a four-way tie record-wise with Baltimore, Tennessee and Buffalo, but the latter two made it based on the tiebreakers.  A major part of the Chargers’ woes was its run defense as the Bolts gave up 131.1 yards per game on the ground, which ranked them 31st in the league.  While the D-line has the dynamic pass rushing duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, the interior of the line is in need of help.  NT Brandon Mebane is 33 years of age and is entering the final year of his deal, while DT Corey Liuget, who lined up primarily as the three-technique, has been suspended for the first four games of 2018 for a violation of the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs.  Da’Ron Payne played the NT position for the Crimson Tide, but he offers some traits to also slide over as the three-technique, making him an obvious choice for the Chargers in addressing the middle of their defense.  Payne is a known commodity as a run stuffer.  He does a tremendous job firing off the ball quickly with a low pad level.  He uses his hands well to quickly get off block and not only plugs holes and takes up space, but he has the short-area burst to shoot the gaps to make a play on the ball carrier behind the line.  While his pass rush situations weren’t frequent, he made the most of his opportunities.  Payne is surprisingly agile for an interior lineman and his speed on tape was verified after he ran a 4.95 40 time at the Combine.  His explosiveness and quick hands allowed him to win at the point of attack and he has the burst to close quickly on the QB.  Payne was also able to convert his speed to power to drive his man back into the backfield.  Payne plays with tremendous effort and keeps working to the football.  His 53 tackles a season ago were good for sixth on the team.  And who can forget the Sugar Bowl, where he picked off a Kelly Bryant pass out of the air following a hit by Anfernee Jennings, only to haul in a one-yard TD reception just a few plays later after lining up at FB?  This is an ideal situation for Payne and I’d expect him to be starting early in his rookie season.

18.  Seattle Seahawks – Josh Jackson, 6’1”, 192lbs CB, Iowa, Jr.

04/20/18 - Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa

04/13/18 - Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa

04/03/18 - Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa

04/01/18 - Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa

02/10/18 - Derwin James, S, Florida State

01/24/18 - Derwin James, S, Florida State

The Seahawks had a disappointing end of the 2017 season, losing three of its final four games to finish the year 9-7 causing them to miss out on the playoffs for just the second time under Pete Carroll and the first since 2011.  Seattle struggled to protect Russell Wilson, giving up 43 sacks a season ago.  Justin Britt is a solid pro at OC and Ethan Pocic shows promise at one OG spot.  D.J. Fluker was brought in on a one-year deal to take over the other OG spot.  Duane Brown was brought in to man the LT position, but can they sign him to a long-term deal?  Rookie Germain Ifedi struggled mightily in his first season, getting flagged 16 times, more than any other OL in the league, and gave up 6 sacks.  I wouldn’t rule out an OL here and the versatile Connor Williams of Texas would make sense here.  Defensively, the Legion of Boom’s reign in the NFC West is officially over.  Richard Sherman was released this offseason and signed with the 49ers and Byron Maxwell is a free agent, while safety Kam Chancellor is trying to come back from a season-ending neck injury.  Derwin James could be an option here if he were to fall this far.  However, my bet is that this pick will be used on a CB, especially considering there are only five CB’s currently under contract, four of whom are only signed through 2018.  Shaquil Griffin impressed as a rookie and should be holding down one starting spot, while the other currently will start, while former undrafted free agent journeymen Neiko Thorpe and Justin Coleman will be vying for the other starting position.  Jackson came to Iowa City as a WR, but transitioned to corner for his sophomore season, recording just 10 tackles and breaking up 4 passes in eight games.  However, 2017 was his breakout season, leading the nation with 8 Int. and 26 total passes defended. According to NFL.com, Jackson gave up a completion rate of just 47.1% and made a play on 25.7% of the passes thrown his way and did not allow a single TD after week 4.  He picked off J.T. Barrett three times in the Hawkeyes' 55-24 upset win of Ohio State and took two Int.'s to the house against Wisconsin.  Jackson has prototypical size to be a shutdown corner on the outside. He has fluid hips to turn and run stride for stride with his man. Jackson puts himself in position to make a play, reading the QB and allowing his eyes to take him to the ball. You'll see him in phase with inside leverage on a deep ball down the sideline, forcing the QB to make a perfect throw to beat him.  On the next, Jackson will come off his man to undercut another route, trusting his eyes and instincts to make a play.  Jackson may be a dynamic playmaker, but the aggressive style of play comes at a cost.  He often commits really hard on a route, which makes him susceptible of double moves.  Teams may also be concerned about his speed as he tended to struggle to gain ground when trailing a WR and his 4.56 40 time at the Combine didn’t help matters.  Jackson has to prove he's not simply a one-year wonder but has the potential to be a big-play corner at the next level.

19.  Dallas Cowboys – Calvin Ridley, 6'0", 189lbs, WR, Alabama, Jr.

04/20/18 - Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

04/13/18 - Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

04/03/18 - Leighton Vander Esch, ILB, Boise State

04/01/18 - Leighton Vander Esch, ILB, Boise State
02/10/18 - Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan

01/24/18 - Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama

I had Boise State ILB Leighton Vander Esch penciled in to the Cowboys to line up at the MIKE between Jaylon Smith and Sean Lee.  That was until Jerry Jones finally had enough of Dez Bryant, ultimately releasing three-time Pro Bowler on Friday the 13th of April.  Bryant was set to make $12.5 million in 2018 and count $16.5 million against the cap.  However, by cutting Bryant, the Cowboys actually save $8.5 million against the cap.  Bryant had three straight seasons with 1,000 yards receiving and double-digit TD before signing a five-year deal in 2015.  He has yet to produce similar numbers since, eclipsing the 100-yard receiving mark just four games in those three seasons and caught just 50% of the passes thrown his way during that time (150 receptions/300 targets).  The finances, the drop in production and his unpredictable attitude were enough for Jones to part ways with the former 1st Rounder.  Without Bryant on the roster, the WR position becomes an even bigger concern, especially considering Terrance Williams has yet to make an impact and could be on his way out.  Cole Beasley has become a major contributor offense, but he’s going to be a free agent at the end of the season.  Allen Hurns was brought in to be a possession WR, but injuries have cut his last two seasons short, while Deonte Thompson was signed to provide depth.  Bryant’s replacement as the No.1 WR is not currently on the roster, which makes Ridley a no brainer if he’s here at No. 19.  Calvin Ridley finished his Bama career with the 3rd highest career receiving yardage (2781) and was second only to Julio Jones in career receptions (224) and TD (19). Ridley showed he has the long speed to stretch defenses vertically. He does a good job winning at the line against a CB trying to jam him and is quick in and out of his breaks as a route runner. Not only is Ridley a precise route runner, but he also shows elite ball skills.  Ridley tracks the ball well and has the body control to adjust to the ball while it’s in the air. He comes back to the football and attacks it while it's in the air with his hands.  Ridley had been seen as a sure-fire top 10 pick until his less-than-impressive performance at the Combine.  Ridley came in rather light, weighing in at just 189 pounds.  He did run a 4.43 40 time, but his broad jump of 9 feet 2 inches was the shortest of any WR at the Combine and only two players had a shorter vertical leap than his 31-inch jump.  That lack of explosiveness is a concern.  In comparison, Julio Jones, who was taken sixth overall, ran a 4.39 40 at 220 pounds and posted a vertical leap of 38.5 inches and a broad jump of 11 feet 3 inches.  However, the tape shows he can be elusive in the open field to make defenders miss and can run away from defenders.  

20.  Detroit Lions – Harold Landry, 6’3”, 252lbs, DE/OLB, Boston College

04/20/18 - Harold Landry, DE/OLB, Boston College

04/13/18 - Harold Landry, DE/OLB, Boston College

0403/18 - Harold Landry, DE/OLB, Boston College

04/01/18 - Harold Landry, DE/OLB, Boston College
02/10/18 - Harold Landry, DE/OLB, Boston College

01/24/18 - Billy Price, OG/OC, Ohio State

Detroit will likely use all the time they are allotted on draft day before they send the card with their selection for Commissioner Goodell to read.  Matthew Stafford was sacked a career-high 47 times, so his health has to be a priority.  I just think both positions can be addressed later in the draft.  Additionally, the interior of the offensive line is in question as the Lions are moving on from Travis Swanson at OC.  Graham Glasgow filled the void last year and finished the season as the No. 8 OC according to Pro Football Focus.  However, the LG position opposite T.J. Lang is up in the air.  Joe Dahl will get the first crack at the starting spot, but would the Lions reach for Ohio State’s versatile OL Billy Price here?  While Price partially tore his pectoral muscle at the Combine, he is expected to be ready to go by training camp and can play both OC and OG.  The Lions also put together a RB-by-committee in 2017 and the result was a last-place finish in rushing offense.  Yes, LaGarrette Blount was brought in to provide some attitude to the ground game, he was only signed for a one-year deal, but he won’t be in Detroit long term, so LSU’s Derrius Guice would make a lot of sense.  However, both positions can be addressed later in the draft, which allows the Lions to focus on the defensive side of the ball.  New HC Matt Patricia will likely be running man coverage on the outside, meaning a corner who can line up on the outside is essential.  No. 1 CB Darius Slay is under contract until 2020 and second-year man Teez Tabor will likely be in the slot, but there are questions at the other CB spot as Quandre Diggs is moving to Safety, while Nevin Lawson struggled to make an impact.  The Lions must improve upon the league’s 27th-ranked pass defense and Louisville’s Jaire Alexander and Colorado’s Isaiah Oliver will be in contention for this pick.  Expect the Lions to also address the void left by Haloti Ngata’s departure to Buffalo at some point in this draft.  Florida’s Taven Bryan has to garner consideration.  Patricia also puts a premium on edge rushers and while Ziggy Ansah finished the year strong with 12.5 sacks and Anthony Zettel showed promise by adding another 6.5 to the fold, there was little production outside the two of them.  Kerry Hyder is coming off a torn Achilles and there’s questions whether he can return to his 2016 form that saw him register 8.0 sacks.  We know that new head coach Matt Patricia ran a hybrid style of defense that moved between a 4-3 and a 3-4, so this pick should be used on someone who can offer some versatility.  Landry is the type of player who proved he could play with his hand in the dirt at Boston College, but also has the athleticism to be a stand-up rusher off the edge.  Landry amassed 25.0 career sacks at Boston College, where he played two seasons under the Lions’ new DC Paul Pasqualoni.  An ankle injury slowed Landry in 2017, which all but extinguished the hype that built up just a season before as Landry racked up a nation-leading 16.5 sacks.  However, when he’s healthy, Landry is easily the most explosive edge rusher in this year’s draft. Landry often lines up in a sprinter stance that allows him to explode off the ball, usually making him the first player out of his stance when the ball is snapped. He's a natural bender, showing the ability to dip his inside shoulder and get underneath the OT's pad level when he turns the corner. Landry is also skilled with his hands, often chopping the OT's hands off the ball.  Once he bends around the edge, he quickly flattens out and gets to the QB in a hurry, and not only sack the QB, but also looks for the impact play, having recorded 10 forced fumbles in his career with the Golden Eagles. His explosiveness isn't limited to his get-off as he also does a great job taking his man up the field, then using a secondary move to cross the face of the OT to get back inside and put pressure on the QB.  Teaming Landry with Ansah would give Patricia a dynamic pair of edge rushers.

21.  Cincinnati Bengals (from Buffalo) – Connor Williams, 6’5”, 296lbs, OT, Texas, Jr.

04/20/18 - Connor Williams, OT, Texas

04/13/18 - Connor Williams, OT, Texas

04/03/18 - Connor Williams, OT, Texas

04/01/18 - Connor Williams, OT, Texas

02/10/18 - Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma (No. 12 overall)

01/24/18 - Connor Williams, OT, Texas (No. 12 overall)

Cincinnati came into this offseason knowing they needed to find a replacement for Cedric Ogbuehi, who has been largely ineffective since he was brought in with much fanfare as the 21st overall selection of the 2015 Draft.  Ogbuehi saw his 2016 season end with a torn rotator cuff, then followed it up with a dismal 2017 season that saw him give up eight sacks; only Cleveland's Spencer Drango (10) and Arizona's Alex Boone (9) gave up more. Ogbuehi has had time to prove he can be a LT in the league, but his struggles are putting the health of Andy Dalton in jeopardy.  That’s why the Bengals made sure to have the Bills include LT Cordy Glenn in the trade.  LG Clint Boling will be a starter in 2018, but the remainder of the line is in need of an overhaul.  Williams, who has the versatility to play inside or out, might be their best bet. Connor Williams entered the 2017 season as a clear top-5 pick having given up just one QB sack in his career, which came on a QB scramble. Williams then tore his MCL and PCL against USC on September 16, causing him to miss the next seven games before playing in the final two games of the regular season. He declined to play in the bowl game due to the injury risk.  A healthy Williams is easily one of the top OT’s in this draft. Pro Football Focus noted that in 956 snaps, Williams gave up just the one sack and 3 total QB pressures. He has good size, strength and bends well, making him the type of athlete you look for in a starting NFL LT. Williams showed off his athleticism at the Combine, where he ran a 5.05 40 time with a 1.76 10-yard split and led all OL at the Combine with a 34-inch vertical leap.  On the field, Williams explodes out of his stance and while his kick slide is not all that deep, he has very quick feet that allow him to cover a lot of ground in a short period of time. He's a knee bender and plays with good leverage, getting under the edge rusher's pad level. Once he's locked on, Williams has tremendous grip strength, not letting his man get o􀁼 the block. He's aggressive off the ball, shooting into the body of the defender in the ground game and is physical at the point of attack. Williams is looking to maul you, drive you back off the ball and bury you.  Now it is largely agreed upon that he had his worst game as a Longhorn came against Maryland.  Williams would try to square up his man off the snap without much of a kick slide, which made him susceptible to the speed rush off the edge.  Then Williams tried to overcompensate as he would overset, allowing the DE an inside track to the QB.  Williams’ arm length is on the shorter side for an OT at 33 inches, which could result in a move inside.  Upgrading the offensive line will go a long way toward improving an anemic passing attack that finished 27th in the league at 195.1 yards per game and adding Glenn and Williams would go a long way toward doing so.

22.  Buffalo Bills (from Kansas City) – Leighton Vander Esch, 6’4”, 256lbs, ILB, Boise State, Jr.

04/20/18 - Leighton Vander Esch, ILB, Boise State

04/13/18 - Leighton Vander Esch, ILB, Boise State

04/03/18 - Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

04/01/18 - Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

02/10/18 - Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan

01/24/18 - Harrison Phillips, DT, Stanford

After landing a QB at the top of the draft, the Bills can use their second pick in the 1st Round to address one of their many needs on both sides of the ball.  The retirements of Center Eric Wood and OG Richie Incognito left a hole in the middle of the offensive line.  The Bills brought in Russell Bodine to take over for Wood.  Many see the addition of Bodine as adding depth more than anything else and expect Iowa’s James Daniels to be the pick here.  However, Pro Football Focus noted Bodine gave up just one sack and one QB pressure and was flagged just three times a season ago.  He’s also started all 64 games of his career.  I think this pick can be used to address the sudden retirement of Incognito and UTEP’s Will Hernandez and Ohio State’s Billy Price would be ideal fits as their play on the field resembles Incognito’s.  I just think there’s enough interior line depth in this year’s draft class to wait until Round 2.  CB is a legitimate need area.  Vontae Davis was signed this offseason to start opposite Tre’Davious White, but he was only signed to a one-year deal and there is little depth behind him.  Don’t rule out Louisville’s Jaire Alexander and Colorado’s Isaiah Oliver here, though it would be a reach to take either of them here.  DT is still a need area, even after Buffalo signed Star Lotulelei away from Carolina and re-signed the 34-year-old Kyle Williams, though his deal is only for one year.  Florida’s Taven Bryan is a physical specimen with an explosive first step and can be disruptive along the interior of the line.  Bryan could be brought in to battle Adolphus Washington for playing time in the rotation in the short term and would be the eventual replacement for Williams.  With Kelvin Benjamin set to be a free agent at the end of 2018 and the uncertain status of Zay Jones after the odd incident in Los Angeles, the Bills have to add another playmaker early and if Dallas doesn’t land Calvin Ridley, expect him to be the pick here as he would give whoever is at QB a reliable go-to target on the outside.  MLB Preston Brown left for Cincinnati in free agency, leaving a hole in the middle of the defense and the lack of depth at the position in this year’s draft class means this pick will ultimately come down to two players:  Alabama’s Rashaan Evans and Leighton Vander Esch.  While I think both players would be a good fit, I think Vander Esch gets the nod.  Coming into 2017, Vander Esch was a bit of an unknown. The former walk-on who played eight-man high school football played a reserve role as a redshirt freshman in 2015 and was limited to just six games due to injury a season ago.  However, Vander Esch made the most of a healthy junior season racking up 129 tackles while patrolling the middle of the Bronco defense, ending the season with double-digit tackles in 8 of the 13 games in which he played.  He showed an ability to not only make plays behind the line of scrimmage, having amassed 4.0 sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss, but also in coverage, with 3 Int. and another 4 pass breakups.  His nose for the football and playmaking ability also resulted in 3 forced fumbles.  Vander Esch seemed to be all over the field and was ultimately rewarded for his play as he was named the Mountain West Conference’s Defensive Player of the Year.  It doesn’t take long to notice the tremendous instincts Vander Esch possesses as he’s quick to diagnose the play, trusts what he sees, quickly reacting and taking the proper angle to the football.  He lives around the line of scrimmage against the run both inside and on the perimeter.  Vander Esch comes downhill in a hurry to shoot the gap, has active hands to fight off blocks and has a nose for the ball.  His vision also allows him to see the play develop in front of him; he’ll shoot off the hip of the pulling OG to get to the RB in a hurry.  He also has the lateral quickness to scrape over the top to beat the ball carrier to the edge.  Vander Esch is a perfect technical tackler, breaking down in space before dropping his hips and driving through the ball carrier, not allowing his man to fall forward for extra yards.  The instincts also carry over to the passing game, where he reads the QB’s eyes, which will take him to the football.  He’s a bit stiff in man coverage but is solid protecting the middle of the field and drives on the outside release to limit yards after catch.  Vander Esch came into the Combine as a borderline 1st Round pick, but he silenced any doubters about his athleticism after posting a 4.65 40 time and an explosive 39.5-inch vertical leap while measuring at 6’4” and 258 pounds.  He now has a chance to be taken in the first 25 picks.  

23.  New England Patriots (from Los Angeles Rams) – Rashaan Evans, 6’3”, 232lbs, ILB, Alabama

04/20/18 - Rashaan Evans, ILB, Alabama

04/13/18 - Rashaan Evans, ILB, Alabama

04/03/18 - Rashaan Evans, ILB, Alabama

04/01/18 - Rashaan Evans, ILB, Alabama (Los Angeles Rams)

02/10/18 - Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa (Los Angeles Rams)

01/24/18 - Rashaan Evans, ILB, Alabama (Los Angeles Rams)

The Patriots slide into the 23rd pick in the draft as part of a trade that sent WR Brandin Cooks to the Rams.  I expect the Patriots to look to fil holes at OT, LB and WR early in this draft, along with a power RB.  It’s not Bill Belichick’s style to draft a skill position player this high, so don’t count on Derrius Guice or D.J. Moore here.  I think it comes down to finding a replacement for Nate Solder at LT and adding another playmaker at LB.  I think New England can wait in their LT as UCLA’s Kolton Miller will likely be on the board when thy pick at No. 31, but the same can’t be said for the versatile Evans.  If the Bills trade out of the No. 22 pick, I think Leighton Vander Esch falls to the Pats here.  But with him off the board, Evans will be the guy.  If you watched Rashaan Evans play for the Crimson Tide, you saw an instinctive player with the versatility to play inside and out.  Belichick has already brought in one Bama LB in Dont’a Hightower and was able to move him all over the LB corps and I anticipate the same would be done with Evans, who would be an immediate starter.  Evans began his collegiate career at OLB before moving inside for his junior season. He got his first chance at being a full-time starter as a senior and finished the year with 74 tackles, with 13 of those going for a loss. Evans is instinctive against the run, quickly diagnosing the play before shooting gaps to disrupt the play. He also does a good job working through traffic and scraping over the top laterally.  He shows good range and has the speed to make plays inside out.  He’s a physical tackler who can break down in space, wraps up well and drives through the ball carrier.  Evans was also a menace in the passing game, recording 6 sacks and another 7 QB pressures while also breaking up 3 passes. He can cut in and bend off the edge to pressure the QB and will often use an inside-out spin move to get off blocks. Evans moves well laterally in coverage. He does a good job reading the QB’s eyes, changes directions quickly and drives quickly on the ball.  Evans would give the Pats a three-down backer and a potential future leader of the defense.  

24.  Carolina Panthers – Jaire Alexander, 5’11” 192lbs, CB, Louisville, Jr.

04/20/18 - Mike Hughes, CB, Central Florida

04/13/18 - Mike Hughes, CB, Central Florida

04/03/18 - Mike Hughes, CB, Central Florida

04/01/18 - Mike Hughes, CB, Central Florida
02/10/18 - Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M

01/24/18 - Courtland Sutton WR, SMU

Carolina finished with the same record as New Orleans (11-5), but the Saints had the tiebreaker, so the Panthers missed out on the NFC South title.  As a result, they traveled to New Orleans where they lost 31-26 in the Wild Card Game.  The Panthers will be looking for an eventual replacement for 37-year old SS Mike Adams, who is likely in his final season.  Stanford’s Justin Reid would be a perfect fit as he’s versatile, athletic and can play the run and be a ballhawk versus the pass.  However, maybe a bigger need is along the interior of the offensive line.  Andrew Norwell was signed by Jacksonville, creating a hole at LG and the lackluster performance of Matt Kalil last season makes that position a must early in the draft.  Matt’s brother Ryan also announced he would be retiring at the conclusion of the 2018 season, which means they’ll need to find his replacement.  While Iowa’s James Daniels is a viable option, Billy Price makes more sense because he can fill the void left by Norwell now and can slide inside to take over for Ryan Kalil at season’s end.  However, this move may be trumped by the need to address the CB position.  Pro Football Focus had Carolina’s top four CB’s from a season ago, James Bradberry, Kevon Seymour, Captain Munnerlyn and Daryl Worley, receiving poor grades overall, ranking them at the bottom among CB’s in 2017.  Worley has moved on to Philly and Ross Cockrell was added to the roster to provide depth at the position.  However, if the Panthers expect to compete in an NFC South division where they play twice against Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston, they have to shore up the corner position early and since the CB draft class isn’t all that deep, expect Carolina to take one in Round One.  Another playmaker is needed in the secondary and adding a player the caliber of Alexander would be a nice fit.  Alexander made a name for himself as a sophomore in 2016, picking off 5 passes and breaking up 9 more for the Cardinals.  He struggled with a sprained knee and a broken hand as a junior, missing half the season as a result.  However, he showed at the Combine that he was healthy, running a blazing 4.38 40 time.  Alexander is an instinctive CB who does a good job reading the QB’s eyes and breaks quickly on the football.  He does a good job highpointing the football and will make a play on the WR’s hands to affect the catch.  Alexander also offers some ability as a punt returner.  He is not a finished product by any means as he has a hard time locating the ball when he has to turn and track it and isn’t a reliable tackler, which could cause him to fall on draft day.  However, he has starter potential at the next level has a chance to do just that right away opposite Bradberry on the outside.

25.  Tennessee Titans – James Daniels, 6’3”, 306lbs, C, Iowa, Jr.

04/20/18 - James Daniels, C, Iowa

04/13/18 - James Daniels, C, Iowa

04/03/18 - James Daniels, C, Iowa

04/01/18 - James Daniels, C, Iowa
02/10/18 - Rashaan Evans, ILB, Alabama

01/24/18 - Harold Landry, OLB, Boston College

Tennessee finished 2017 in the top five in the league in sacks with 43, but their top edge rushers Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan are free agents at the end of the season and there’s little depth behind them.  Harold Landry would be a perfect fit in Dean Pees’ 3-4 scheme.  Also, Avery Williamson left in free agency, leaving a hole next to Wesley Woodyard.  Rashaan Evans could step in and contribute right away.  But what if both of them are off the board?  Tennessee had the fifth-best O-line a season ago according to Pro Football Focus.  However, the Titans are moving to a zone blocking scheme and there’s no guarantee Ben Jones will make a successful transition.  If the new regime in Tennessee isn’t convinced he can make the transition, expect them to look hard at Iowa’s James Daniels, who played in a zone blocking scheme during his time with the Hawkeyes and would challenge Jones for the starting job right away.  Daniels followed his brother Leshun Daniels, Jr. to Iowa and saw action in every game his true freshman season in 2015, starting two games at OG.  He was moved to OC, where he’s started 23 games the past two seasons for the Hawkeyes.  Like most linemen coming out of Iowa City, Daniels is fundamentally sound.  He’s a very smooth and fluid athlete and moves very well for the position. Daniels fires quickly off the ball and has excellent hand placement inside and underneath the DT’s pad level.  He takes good angles, can quickly get his hips around to seal off defenders and has the lateral quickness to beat defenders to the hole.  Daniels also has a burst to get to the second level and isn’t afraid to finish his block.  He’s a knee bender who plays with a wide base in pass protection and is light on his feet, sliding to pick up blitzers and easily mirroring defenders.  Daniels’ game is all about quickness and technique, meaning he can get overpowered at the point of attack, so he’ll need to improve his strength at the next level.  That said Daniels has a good chance to beat out Jones and if that happens, he’ll be a regular on Tennessee’s O-line for many years to come.

26.   Atlanta Falcons – Taven Bryan, 6’4”, 291lbs, DT, Florida, Jr.

04/20/18 - Taven Bryan, DT, Florida

04/13/18 - Taven Bryan, DT, Florida

04/03/18 - Taven Bryan, DT, Florida

04/01/18 - Taven Bryan, DT, Florida

02/10/18 - Isaiah Wynn, OG, Georgia

01/24/18 - Taven Bryan, DT, Florida

The Falcons made the playoffs despite finishing third in the NFC South.  They went on to win the Wild Card game versus the Rams before ultimately going down to the eventual Super Bowl Champs.  Offensively, the unit is mostly intact, save for a couple of key positions.  Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu are back, but Taylor Gabriel, who played a pivotal role as the team’s 3rd receiver, is now in Chicago, and while Justin Hardy will be given the first chance at taking over the role, another wideout could be considered here.  Expect Maryland’s D.J. Moore and Christian Kirk of Texas A&M to be options here.  It has been projected for some time that Atlanta would take an OG with this pick.  However, the team restructured the deal for Andy Levitre and signed Brandon Fusco to take over the stating spot at RG from Wes Schweitzer, so I think GM Thomas Dimitroff can afford to look elsewhere.  Maybe the biggest need is up front defensively, as the Falcons must fill the void left by Dontari Poe next to Grady Jarrett.  Florida’s Taven Bryan is raw, but his explosiveness makes him more than a viable option here at No. 26.  Bryan has a very quick get-off that allows him to shoot gaps and get up the field in a hurry.  He also wins with leverage off the ball, then using a quick swim move to get early penetration into the backfield.  His speed was also showcased at the Combine where he ran a sub-5.0 40 time.  He has tremendous lateral quickness for his size to beat block and arrive at the hole ahead of the RB.  Bryan is relentless in his pursuit of the football and can chase down ball carriers from behind.  He does a good job converting speed to power, bench pressing his man to get off the ball.  However, despite being such an explosive athlete and offers above average upper body strength, it’s the lack of power in his legs that gets him into trouble.  If he stays engaged with an interior lineman, he struggles to generate any movement and will often get driven back.  He’s also still learning the nuances of the position, so his playing time initially will be limited, but expect Bryan has a chance to be a productive starter making plays behind the line.

27.  New Orleans Saints – Mike Gesicki, 6’5”, 247lbs, TE, Penn State

04/20/18 - Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State

04/13/18 - Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina

04/03/18 - Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina

04/01/18 - Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina

02/10/18 - Taven Bryan, DT, Florida

01/24/18 - Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M

Drew Brees is 39 years of age, but this offseason he signed a deal to remain with the Saints for another two years.  New Orleans will have to search for his heir apparent at some point.  I don’t expect a trade into the top 10, but there’s a chance this pick could be used on a QB, albeit a small one, as Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph would be available here.  However, taking Rudolph here would be a reach as Rudolph carries a 2nd Round draft grade.  I believe New Orleans will be using this pick to add weapons for Brees in the passing game.  Michael Thomas is a bonafide star and Ted Ginn, Jr, is a legitimate vertical threat, but he’s 32 years of age.  Outside of the starting receivers, the team lacked playmakers at WR, as it was Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram who were actually the team’s second and third leading receivers, with Thomas leading the way and Ginn, Jr. 4th on the team.  Each of the four finished with over 50 receptions apiece, but the next closest receiving target was Brandon Coleman, who’s now a free agent.  Maryland’s D.J. Moore, who ran a 4.42 40 time, can be a legitimate vertical threat, which should garner consideration.  However, the lack of production at the TE position, where the trio of Coby Fleener, Josh Hill and Michael Hoomanawanui finished 2017 with a combined 44 receptions for 472 yards and 4 TD.  Simply put, the Saints need more production from the TE position so they don’t have to complete 139 passes to their RB’s.  South Carolina’s Hayden Hurst has emerged as the draft’s most complete TE because he can catch AND block.  However, the Saints need an athletic TE to finally fill the void that was left by the departure of Jimmy Graham after the 2014 season and Gesicki is the most comparable athlete in the class.  Gesicki can be the weapon the Saints need as the TE position.  Gesicki was a three-sport star in high school, having also played basketball and volleyball and you can see the skills translate from those sports to the football field.  Gesicki does a tremendous job using his big body to box out defenders for the ball down the field.  His ability to shield defenders also makes him an ideal red zone target.  All Penn State QB Trace McSorley had to do was put the ball up and Gesicki could go up, highpoint the football and pluck it out of the air.  His vertical leap is off the charts, posting a 41-inch vertical leap at the Combine. Couple that with his tremendous length (34-inch arms) and you have a weapon with an insane catch radius.  However, Gesicki can also get vertical and has the speed to run by defenders.  He ran a blazing 4.54 40 time at the Combine, which was fastest among TE’s and was also faster than 13 WR’s and 15 RB’s.  There’s no doubt Gesicki is a matchup nightmare in the passing game and has the ability to be a favorite target for Ryan Tannehill.  Gesicki is likely not being considered as a 1st Round pick because of his inability to be a consistent inline blocker.  That said, Gesicki has a high ceiling and should make an immediate impact at the next level and should produce some spectacular plays.

28.  Pittsburgh Steelers – Justin Reid, 6'1", 204lbs, S, Stanford, Jr.

04/20/18 - Justin Reid, S, Stanford

04/13/18 - Justin Reid, S, Stanford

04/03/18 - Justin Reid, S, Stanford

04/01/18 - Justin Reid, S, Stanford

02/10/18 - Ronald Jones II, RB, USC

01/24/18 - Mike Hughes, CB, Central Florida

The Steelers can go in nearly any direction with this pick.  There are needs on the defensive side of the ball at ILB and Safety.  There’s also the reality that Ben Roethlisberger can’t play forever, and the question remains how much Big Ben has left in the tank.  At 36, Big Ben is four years older than any other player on the roster.  His replacement is not currently on the roster.  But, is this too much of a reach for Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph?  The biggest question mark surrounds the contract negotiations of star RB Le’Veon Bell.  GM Kevin Gilbert has already come out and said any extension talks will be put on hold, likely through the draft.  Bell has been looking for a long-term deal but wants to be paid what he feels he’s worth.  He is the team’s leading rusher and second-leading receiver after all.  Bell is set to make just over $14.54 million on the franchise tag.  With Bell’s long-term future up in the air, would Pittsburgh look for a RB to possibly be his replacement?  Even if Bell does get a deal worked out, he ran the ball 321 times in 2017; James Conner was second on the team with just 32 carries.  It remains to be seen whether Conner can be a contributor, so the Steelers will need to at least add some depth to the RB position.  However, with a deep RB class, Pittsburgh doesn’t have to take Derrius Guice or USC’s Ronald Jones II with this pick.  Defensively, if one of the top LB’s were to fall this far, I would expect the Steelers to jump at the chance to shore up the middle of their defense.  However, with the top ILB’s off the board and the addition of Jon Bostic to the roster, Pittsburgh can look elsewhere here.  Safety was one of the weakest positions on the roster, especially with Mike Mitchell gone.  However, Morgan Burnett was brought in to play one Safety position.  Does Pittsburgh think Sean Davis took a big enough step forward to be the guy at the other safety spot?  Also, there’s little depth behind them.  Enter Justin Reid, who offers some versatility in that he can not only patrol the back end of the defense, but also has some cover skills.  Reid is an intelligent player who is decisive and trusts his eyes, quickly reacting to the play in front of him.  He has excellent range, drives quickly on the ball and has tremendous ball skills, as evidenced by the 5 Int. and 6 pass breakups he tallied a season ago.  Reid can also cover TE’s and RB’s and will also line up in the slot.  His aggressive nature will get him in trouble as he can get caught with his eyes in the backfield, which allows WR’s to get behind him, and he can also be beaten by double moves.  He also tends to trail plays over the middle in coverage.  Reid is a reliable tackler in the open field and does a very good job maintaining outside leverage to keep the ball carrier bottled up.  Reid is decisive and trusts his eyes.  Reid may actually be more well-rounded than his brother Eric Reid, who was taken with the 17th pick of the 2013 Draft by the 49ers.

29.  Jacksonville Jaguars – D.J. Chark, 6’3”, 199lbs, WR, LSU

04/20/18 - Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU

04/13/18 - Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU

04/03/18 - Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU

04/01/18 - Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU

02/10/18 - Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma

01/24/18 - Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma

Jacksonville was one quarter away its first Super Bowl berth before the magic of Tom Brady took over.  The Jags boasted the number two-ranked defense and the offense was much improved, especially with the presence of Leonard Fournette on the ground.  I would expect the Jags to look for some weapons for Blake Bortles early in this draft.  The Jaguars will be on the market for a TE now that they’ve released Marcedes Lewis, who spent 12 years with the organization.  South Dakota State’s Dallas Goedert, who has drawn comparisons to the Eagles’ Zach Ertz is an option here.  However, the WR position became the biggest need when No. 1 WR Allen Robinson signed with Chicago.  That need was furthered when Allen Hurns, who when healthy was Bortles’ No. 2 option at wideout, became a Dallas Cowboy.  Yes, Donte Moncrief was signed to lessen the blow, but he has yet to eclipse 400 yards receiving in any of his four seasons in the league.  Marqise Lee, Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook lack the size to be a No. 1 wideout.  That’s why I think the Jags would jump at the chance to get Chark, who is rising up draft boards.  D.J. Chark’s size and speed give him a chance to be that guy, epsecialjy considering he is a 6’3” receiver with 4.34 speed.  Chark caught just 40 passes and scored 3 TD a season ago, but don’t just look at the stats.  LSU’s run-heavy offense has as much to do with the low numbers as anything as the Tigers ran the ball twice for every pass thrown.  However, Chark made the most of his opportunities, as he averaged 21.9 yards per reception on the 40 passes he did haul in.  Chark is an explosive athlete who can get vertical in a hurry and can climb the ladder to attack the ball in the air.  I think Chark can be a better pro than he was in college and has the ability to replace Robinson as the Jags’ No.1 WR and can be a go-to target for Bortles.

30.  Minnesota Vikings – Will Hernandez, 6’2”, 327lbs, OG, UTEP

04/20/18 - Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP

04/13/18 - Billy Price, OC/OG, Ohio State

04/03/18 - Billy Price, OC/OG, Ohio State

04/01/18 - Billy Price, OC/OG, Ohio State

02/10/18 - Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

01/24/18 - Brian O'Neill, OT, Pittsburgh

The Vikings jumped at the start of free agency to address their biggest offseason need by investing $84 million in Kirk Cousins to take over the helm on offense.  This allows Minnesota to focus on other needs.  Many are forecasting this pick will be used on an offensive lineman and it does make sense to protect its investment.  While LT Riley Reiff and OC Pat Elflein are guaranteed to be holdovers up front and Tom Compton was signed to likely take over one of the OG spots, OG Joe Berger announced his retirement, leaving a void inside.  This pick could be used on someone who may be the nastiest player in this draft in UTEP’s Will Hernandez, who looks to maul and punish defenders lined up over him.  Hernandez was a stalwart up front for the Miners, starting all 49 games in his four-year career, and was part of a line that averaged just 1.47 sacks given up over the last four seasons.  Hernandez is surprisingly quick off the ball for his size and does an excellent job initiating contact against his man.  He’s a knee bender who understands leverage and plays with a wide base, allowing him to use his exceptional strength to manhandle defenders at the point of attack.  He’s heavy-handed and is violent with his punch off the ball, which can stifle a DT’s rush before it begins and if he gets his hands on you, don’t expect to go anywhere as he’ll sustain his block to the whistle.  Hernandez shows some agility popping out of his stance and pulling as a lead blocker, getting to get to the second level with bad intentions, clearing a path by running over defenders.  He does a decent job sliding laterally in pass protection, though he can be beaten off the ball with a quick first step, and anchors well against a bull rush.  Hernandez can get rather handsy, as his hands will start inside on a defender before separating from the breast plate, so I’d expect to see him struggle with holding penalties until he can be more consistent with his hand placement.  There’s no doubt Hernandez would bring some attitude to the Viking offense.

31.  New England Patriots – Kolton Miller, 6’9”, 309lbs, OT, UCLA, Jr.

04/20/18 - Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA

04/13/18 - Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA

04/03/18 - Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA

04/01/18 - Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA
02/10/18 - Mike Hughes, CB, Central Florida
 01/24/18 - Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State

New England has not done anything to address the departure of former 1st Round pick Nate Solder, who signed with the Giants this offseason, which leads me to believe their focus will turn to the draft.  UCLA’s Kolton Miller was an underrated prospect early in the pre-draft process but has quickly emerged as a potential 1st Round pick because of his length and movement skills.  His 4.95 40 time at the Combine turned heads and forced teams to go back to game film to figure out what they have.  Miller started five games as a redshirt freshman in 2015 and started the first five games at RT in 2016 before missing the final seven games with a foot injury. He moved to the left side for his junior season, where he stayed healthy and started all 13 games while protecting Josh Rosen's blind side.  At 6'9", Miller has the prototypical size to be an OT at the next level. Despite his size, he's a knee bender who does a good job staying low in his stance, keeping a low pad level which allows him to sit down and anchor. Miller has very nimble feet that make his kick slide easy. His lateral agility is apparent, allowing him to mirror defenders and uses a quick power step to stifle an inside rush. Miller has a long wingspan and uses his long arms to attack the edge rusher off the ball and keep him at a distance while also using his hands well to keep his man in front.  Miller’s game is all about quickness, but he struggles to anchor and can get overpowered at the point of attack.  This has resulted in some inconsistent tape because he relies so much on his athleticism to beat the defender in front of him.  That said, this easy mover reminds me of Lane Johnson when he entered the draft in 2013 after his junior season at Oklahoma. Johnson's stock took him all the way to the No. 4 overall pick of the Eagles.  I think Miller has the skills to replace Solder at LT.

32.  Philadelphia Eagles – Dallas Goedert, 6’5”, 256lbs, TE, South Dakota State

04/20/18 - Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State

04/13/18 - Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State

04/03/18 - Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State

04/01/18 - Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State
02/10/18 - Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA
 01/24/18 - Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA

Philadelphia enters this offseason optimistic that their leader Carson Wentz will return from a torn ACL and LCL to begin the season.  Even if Wentz starts the season on the sidelines, the Eagles can turn to Super Bowl LII MVP Nick Foles to fill in until he’s ready.  Foles is a nice insurance policy to have and it’s a big reason why Philly has yet to deal Foles to a team in need of a QB.  Protecting Wentz and Foles will be a high priority.  Expect Philly to take a look at an eventual replacement to the oft-injured Jason Peters.  Kolton Miller would be an option here.  However, there’s still a chance that Halapoulivaati Vaitai’s work down the stretch last season when Peters went down may be enough to allow the Eagles to focus on other needs.  LB is a concern as MLB Jordan Hicks can’t seem to be healthy and is only under contract for another year, while they could also use an upgrade over Mychal Kendricks on the outside.  If any of the top LB’s fall, they have to be in consideration here.  I think the temptation of adding another weapon on offense will be too much to pass up.  The Eagles utilized a RB-by-Committee with success last year as LeGarrette Blount, Jay Ajayi and Corey Clement split time and were effective on the ground. With Blount moving on to Detroit, might this be a spot for Derrius Guice, who has a similar bruising running style?  How about another weapon for Wentz in the passing attack?  Trey Burton left as a free agent, opening a hole behind starter Zach Ertz.  Adding a receiving option like Dallas Goedert will be very enticing.  How often do you see a team whose biggest receiving threat is at TE?  That is exactly what South Dakota State had in Goedert, who in his final two seasons with the Jackrabbits racked up 2404 yards on 164 receptions with 18 TD.  He led the team in receptions (72) and yardage (1,111) and was second on the team in TD (7) as a senior in 2017, a year after setting a single-season Jackrabbit record with 92 receptions and amassing 1,293 yards, the fifth-most yards in school history.  Goedert lined up all over the field and was a matchup nightmare as he was too fast for the LB’s over the middle and overpowered DB’s on the outside.  He has exceptional hands and a large catch radius.  He attacks the ball in the air and has put together an impressive highlight reel of tremendous one-handed catches.  Goedert is also a savvy route runner and knows how to create separation to get open.  The more I watch Goedert, the more he reminds me of Travis Kelce, who has proven to be a matchup nightmare in the NFL and I expect Goedert to be the same at the next level.  One thing Goedert needs work on his as a blocker, as he does show good burst to engage, but is still lacking technique.  Last year, Evan Engram was expected to be a 2nd Round pick until he ran a 4.42 40 time.  Goedert disappointed many by not running the 40 at the Combine or his Pro Day, so we don’t know just how fast he is, but his game speed is comparable to Kelce, who ran 4.61 40 time.  However, Goedert did post a 35-inch vertical leap and broad jumped 10 feet 1 inch, which are virtually identical numbers that Kelce posted (35-inch VJ, 10-foot 4-inch BJ), which means his explosiveness does appear to be comparable.  I’d expect that, like Ertz, Goedert would become a favorite target of Carson Wentz early in his career.